As expected in Q3, more to come from CO2

Q3 in-line, Q4 likely weaker

Q3 likely stable, help from CO2 in coming years

Leading indicators

More of the same for Q3

Q2 EBITDA 8% below

Muddling through challenging markets

No fun in DMC short-term

Elkem (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Mixed Q1 results

Elkem had a mixed Q1, with EBITDA of NOK898m 3% above consensus but 9% below our estimate, while EPS of NOK-0.3 missed both our forecast and consensus. However, we remain optimistic about Elkem’s outlook, contingent on a successful divestment of its Silicones assets, and have made minor adjustments to our 2026–2027e EPS. We reiterate our BUY and NOK30 target price.

Q1 EBITDA +2%, but Q2 will be weak

Challenging backdrop

Elkem (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Performing through the trough

We estimate Q1 EBITDA of NOK983m, driven by near-term margin improvement in Silicones, partly offset by our lowered expectations for Silicon due to still-weak market conditions, along with additional headwinds from production curtailments and maintenance work. We have reduced our 2026–2027e EPS by 3%. We reiterate our BUY and NOK30 target price.

Elkem (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Preparing to unlock values

Q4 EBITDA was cNOK1.2bn, in line with our estimate and consensus. The company proposed a DPS of NOK0.3 for 2024, which was above our forecast of NOK0 and consensus of NOK0.09. We have made minor adjustments to our 2025–2026e EPS, and are 6% above consensus for 2026e EPS. We reiterate our BUY and NOK30 target price.

Elkem (Hold, TP: NOK30.00) - Preparing to unlock values

Q4 EBITDA was cNOK1.2bn, in line with our estimate and consensus. The company proposed a DPS of NOK0.3 for 2024, which was above our forecast of NOK0 and consensus of NOK0.09. We have made minor adjustments to our 2025–2026e EPS, and are 6% above consensus for 2026e EPS. We reiterate our BUY and NOK30 target price.

Q4 above, Q1 likely weaker

Q4 EBITDA in-line

Elkem (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Back to its roots

We have upgraded Elkem to BUY (HOLD), as we see upside potential from a possible divestiture of the Silicones business, following its announced strategic review. We believe the Silicon Products and Carbon Solutions divisions could be worth cNOK20bn, in addition to the potential cash consideration for Silicones. Cash returns should come up with sharply lower capex. In our opinion, the main risk is the divestment not materialising. Our Q4e EBITDA is NOK1.2bn, and we have raised our target price to...

Q4e: Silicones up, Silicon materials down

Silicones better in Q3, Q4 likely a repeat

Q3 EBITDA 14% better