Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

Trelleborg AB: 1 director

A director at Trelleborg AB bought 5,000 shares at 335.920SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 60/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

No fun in DMC short-term

Elkem (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Mixed Q1 results

Elkem had a mixed Q1, with EBITDA of NOK898m 3% above consensus but 9% below our estimate, while EPS of NOK-0.3 missed both our forecast and consensus. However, we remain optimistic about Elkem’s outlook, contingent on a successful divestment of its Silicones assets, and have made minor adjustments to our 2026–2027e EPS. We reiterate our BUY and NOK30 target price.

Q1 EBITDA +2%, but Q2 will be weak

Trelleborg (Hold, TP: SEK360.00) - Limited signs of demand weakness

Q1 adj. EBITA was bang in line with consensus and our estimates. Management guided for unchanged demand QOQ in Q2 after factoring in macro uncertainty, although recent order intake suggests to us a stronger quarter. We have lowered our 2025–2027e adj. EBITA by c2% on average (partly due to weakening FX) and cut our target price to SEK360 (390); however, with a balanced risk/reward, in our view, we reiterate our HOLD.

Steady as she goes

Estimates down on delayed margin recovery

Jm Ab (Buy, TP: SEK170.00) - Passing the trough

Q1 EBIT was 4% below our estimate and Infront consensus, while EPS fell well short in percentage terms due to a low nominal figure. KPIs did not recover as much as we expected, although JM reiterated its target to increase housing starts to 3,800 units p.a., citing macroeconomic conditions as a key factor. Given the current market outlook, we believe the company has passed the trough on EPS, as we expect starts and sales to recover in late 2025 and 2026. We reiterate our BUY and target price of ...

In-line report, stable demand into Q2

Margins continue to surprise negatively

Good value

The Capital Goods Data Miner - April 2025

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

Challenging backdrop

Elkem (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Performing through the trough

We estimate Q1 EBITDA of NOK983m, driven by near-term margin improvement in Silicones, partly offset by our lowered expectations for Silicon due to still-weak market conditions, along with additional headwinds from production curtailments and maintenance work. We have reduced our 2026–2027e EPS by 3%. We reiterate our BUY and NOK30 target price.

Q1 was OK but that's ancient history now

A relative outperformer among short-cyclicals

Jm Ab (Buy, TP: SEK170.00) - BUY on the dip

JM’s share price has been volatile over the past three years, trading in waves on recovery expectations. As the Swedish residential market has yet to recover, expectations have recently fallen further, and the stock has reached old lows. However, we expect a market recovery in late-2025 and 2026, and we believe this has created an attractive entry point. KPIs (unit sales and unit starts) are our Q1 focus point, as profits are still affected by cycle lows and a trailing profit recognition. We hav...

Trelleborg (Hold, TP: SEK390.00) - FX headwinds

We estimate Q1 sales of SEK8,905m, organic growth of c1% YOY and adj. EBITA of SEK1,638m (4% below consensus). We expect a neutral outlook from management with regards to Q2, and have lowered our 2025–2027e adj. EBITA by c8% on average (mainly due to FX but also reduced demand estimates). We reiterate our HOLD but have lowered our target price to SEK390 (435) on updated valuation and estimates.