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Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK118.00) - Further insurance repricing needed

Cash-equivalent earnings before amortisation were 13% higher in Q4 YOY despite the soft trend within Insurance. Repricing measures were taken throughout 2023 and as part of the 1 January renewal, with management expecting the targeted profitability to be reached in 2025. The board proposed a new NOK400m buyback programme, with the remaining NOK1.1bn to come after the AGM. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our 2025e EPS by 3% and our target price to NOK118 (120).

Storebrand ASA: 2 directors

Two Directors at Storebrand ASA bought 6,000 shares at between 89.440NOK and 89.660NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 62/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the ...

Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK120.00) - Higher AUM supporting earnings

We expect strong equity and bond markets to help drive AUM growth in Q4, and for performance fees to further raise earnings from Asset Management, contributing to profit before amortisation of NOK1,195m, up 42% YOY. We expect the solvency to remain strong at 203%, supporting continued buybacks in line with the newly revised CMD ambition of NOK12bn by 2030. We have increased our 2025e EPS by ~1% owing to higher AUM, and raised our target price to NOK120 (119), reiterating our BUY.

Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK119.00) - Targeting NOK5bn by 2025

Storebrand hosted its 2023 CMD on 13 December, with key focus on reaching ~NOK5bn in profit before amortisation and tax by 2025. Growth in capital-light earnings, Insurance repricing, and a gradual increase of profit sharing are crucial to reaching this, in our view. Management also raised the buyback target to ~NOK12bn by 2030 (previously NOK10bn), after the NOK2bn announced in 2022–2023. We have reduced our 2025e EPS by 3%, while we reiterate our BUY and NOK119 target price.

Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK119.00) - Earnings growth and capital release

We believe the structural growth in Unit Linked pensions remains the most important earnings driver for Storebrand and is likely to be a key focal point at the 2023 CMD on 13 December. Focus should also be on the effects of higher interest rates (given the sharp rise since the 2020 CMD) on earnings and excess capital generation. We expect Storebrand to announce a profit before amortisation target of >NOK5bn for 2025 and capital distributions of >NOK15bn by end-2032. We reiterate our BUY and have...

Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK115.00) - Interest rate tailwind

Lower costs, higher interest rates, and improved profit sharing helped to offset a soft insurance result in Q3, with profit before amortisation and tax of NOK983m, 46% higher YOY. Strong operating earnings and reduced equity exposure allowed the Solvency II ratio to climb 8%-points QOQ, to 204%, supporting the case for continued buybacks from Q4e, after the ongoing NOK500m programme ends. We have raised our 2024–2025e EPS by 3–4% on the back of lower opex and an improved financial result. We rei...

Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK109.00) - Set for continued strong solvency

We expect Storebrand to report Q3 adj. EPS of NOK1.40 and profit before amortisation of NOK774m, up ~15% YOY, as higher interest rates should support contribution from the Guaranteed segment and the return on the company portfolio. We estimate a Q3 Solvency II ratio of 194% and thus see continued support for continued capital distribution. In sum, we have raised our 2024–2025e EPS by 2–3%, and we reiterate our BUY and NOK109 target price.

Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK109.00) - NOK1bn in H2 2023e buybacks

Storebrand reported cash earnings before amortisation of NOK777m in Q2, up 33% YOY, driven in large part by the increased return on the company portfolio, which helped offset a soft YOY Insurance trend. The Insurance segment experienced increased frequency and claims inflation, contributing to an 8%-points YOY rise in the combined ratio. Price hikes have already been initiated, although the effect might linger into 2024. As Solvency reached 196%, the company has secured approval for a NOK1bn buy...

Håkon Astrup ... (+7)
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Hanna Lindbo
  • Jørgen Lian
  • Martin Arnell
  • Niklas Wetterling
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Tomi Railo
Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK109.00) - Set for solvency uplift

We expect Q2 adj. EPS of NOK2.51, up considerably YOY, due largely to a NOK440m favourable tax ruling (report due at 07:00 CET on 14 July). Improved equity markets and higher interest rates should help the results YOY. We estimate an uptick in the Solvency II ratio of 11%-points QOQ to 190%, improving the outlook for a new buyback programme in H2. Higher interest rates should continue to raise the return on its portfolio. We reiterate our BUY and NOK109 target price.

Alexander Aukner ... (+11)
  • Alexander Aukner
  • Douglas Lindahl
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Jørgen Lian
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Simen Mortensen
  • Stefan Gauffin
  • Tomi Railo
Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK109.00) - Planning new buybacks

Storebrand reported Q1 profit before amortisation of NOK773m, up 22% YOY due to continued momentum from the company portfolio on higher interest rates YOY. Savings and Insurance saw some weaker trends, where an uptick in disability levels led to losses in Health and Group Life Insurance products; efforts to re-price these products have already begun. We expect the release of excess capital to continue as solvency remains above the 175% target. We reiterate our BUY but have trimmed our target pri...

Håkon Astrup ... (+8)
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
  • Martin Arnell
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Simen Aas
  • Steffen Evjen
Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK110.00) - Set for continued AUM growth

We forecast Q1 EPS of NOK1.50 due to a continued rise in AUM from strong equity markets and solid returns on the company’s portfolio. We forecast a Solvency II ratio of 179% as falling interest rates and regulatory adjustments could offset the solid earnings momentum. Due to ~1% higher 2024e EPS we have raised our target price to NOK110 (109), reiterating our BUY.

Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK109.00) - Solvency back on track

Pre-tax profit fell 17% YOY in Q4 due to turbulent financial markets reducing performance-related fees and profit-sharing. However, with the Solvency II ratio jumping 10%-points QOQ to 184%, the board proposed another NOK500m buyback programme, working towards the long-awaited release of >NOK10bn in excess capital by 2030. We have trimmed our 2024e EPS by 3% given our assumption of an increased cost base, but reiterate our BUY and NOK109 target price.

Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK109.00) - Set for AUM tailwind

After the rebound in global financial markets towards end-2022, we expect Storebrand to return to AUM growth QOQ in Q4 and a rebuilding of customer buffers. We forecast NOK978m in profit before amortisation, supported by a stronger financial result YOY from the customer portfolios and insurance assets, leading to Q4e adj. EPS of NOK1.72. Despite several moving parts affecting solvency calculations in Q4, we forecast a Solvency II ratio of 176%, within the target range, and potentially enabling f...

Douglas Lindahl ... (+4)
  • Douglas Lindahl
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Joachim Gunell
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK109.00) - Running-off in style

Storebrand hosted a Capital Update meeting on 8 December focusing on the earnings uplift from higher interest rates. Management expects to release more than NOK10bn in capital by 2030, supported by NOK1bn in annual earnings from increased profit-sharing and higher returns on the company’s NOK32bn portfolio. In addition, the board approved lowering the solvency capital distribution threshold to 175% (180%). We have increased 2023–2024 EPS by 1–3% and reiterate our BUY and target price of NOK109.

Alexander Aukner ... (+9)
  • Alexander Aukner
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Joachim Gunell
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Martin Hoang Nguyen
  • Niclas Gehin
  • Ola Trovatn
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Simen Mortensen
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