NCC AB: 5 directors

Two Directors at NCC AB bought 2,178 shares at 190.874SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 58/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showin...

Peab AB: 1 director

A director at Peab AB bought 1,273,500 shares at 85.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 73/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sh...

Peab (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - Q1 EBIT broadly as expected

Peab reported a Q1 seasonal EBIT loss (as expected), driven by winter-related effects in Industry. We have lowered our 2025e EPS due to the low tax rate in Q1, despite a broadly in-line underlying performance. We have slightly raised our revenue and EPS forecasts for 2026–2027 by c1%. We continue to see better risk/reward in peers and reiterate our HOLD and SEK85 target price.

Fine results from Civil

Ready to grow through M&A

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Slightly larger seasonal losses

The divisional figures were broadly in line, and as usual, Q1 was a seasonal loss due to winter effects in NCC Industry (asphalt operations). EBIT was SEK-170m (14% below our estimate, 10% below Infront consensus). However, given the low season, the Q1 miss had a limited effect – a c1% hit to full-year EPS. We reiterate our BUY and highlight our view that ongoing sold and initiated property developments are likely to drive positive EPS momentum to 2028, but have cut our target price to SEK210 (2...

Undramatic quarter

Another cash flow-intensive year

Favouring peers

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK220.00) - Target price raised on project gains

Having started and sold another commercial development, with an expected 2027 delivery, we have raised our 2027e EPS by c8%. Given NCC’s project development planned for 2027–2028e, we believe the stock offers an attractive EPS growth profile. However, similar to peers, Q1 is likely to be a loss-making quarter due to Nordic winter effects. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK220 (200).

Peab (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - Seasonal losses expected

Given Peab’s large Civil Engineering and Industry (including Asphalt) operations, it tends to report a loss in Q1. We are broadly in line with consensus for Q1e EPS and order intake, although we are below for 2025–2027e. We believe there is a better risk/reward in peers, and reiterate our HOLD and SEK85 target price.

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK200.00) - Values expected to materialise

While the Q4 commercial real estate sale in Gothenburg increased EBIT YOY, and reduced NIBD to SEK1.2bn (cSEK6bn in Q3), earnings missed expectations due to SEK250m in project write-downs. However, the 2024 DPS of SEK11 was higher than we expected. With the Q4 results, NCC also announced a strategic review of its Industry division. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK200 (190).

What a way to end to 2024!

Peab (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - Mixed Q4, but boost from one-offs

Peab reported stronger-than-expected Q4 results on transaction gains in Property Development (PD) and one-offs in Industry (extra government funds in Finland). The underlying market recovered as we expected, with leading KPIs such group order intake and residential unit sales slightly above our forecasts. We have made minor changes to our 2025–2026e EPS, but believe consensus is still reflecting a too-bullish EBIT margin recovery. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK85 ...

Solid cash flow and order intake

Cash is flowing in

Peers are more attractive

Wide peer valuation range on market recovery expectations

Various waves of expectations for a recovery in newbuild markets have led to volatility in the sector, but an upwards share-price trend overall. Although we still await proof the new-volume market (both residential and commercial) is recovering, consensus is fuelled by falling rates. However, trailing profits under IFRS valuations are record-wide. We maintain a neutral sector view and stock-picking approach.

Peab (Hold, TP: SEK80.00) - JV accounting gains

We have increased our 2024e EPS by 26% on the announced gain of SEK0.4bn in Q4 following the deal with Balder to break up the Centur JV. Despite the Q4 transactional gain in Property Development (PD), we continue to see downside risk to consensus on bullish EPS expectations longer-term. We reiterate our HOLD, finding a better risk/reward in peers, but have raised our target price to SEK80 (76) on updated peer valuations.