reports
- Russell Waller
- James Ratzer
Vodafone to Virgin spectrum sale: More details revealed
As part of the Vodafone-Three merger (VOD3UK), the merging companies committed to sell a portfolio of spectrum to VMO2. The details of that spectrum portfolio have now been formally disclosed by Ofcom, which has published a notification listing the frequencies that are due to be transferred (LINK). In this note, we run through the final decisions and implications for potential UK revenue share.
- James Ratzer
The company started seeing signs of recovery as subscriber losses begu...
As we expected, the UK merger completed this morning, so we wanted to take this opportunity to highlight the note we put out on Saturday, in which we published our new model (including the UK merger, and assuming Vodafone buys out the Hutchinson minority in 3 years’ time). The terms of the deal are as initially announced. We believe the value creation is +9p per share, included within our 120p price target. We still see >50% upside from current levels.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 120p, +56%) Was 135p Target price/ model update: T...
We don't usually aim to publish price target updates over the weekend, so please do forgive us, but with today being May 31st and Vodafone's desire to close the UK merger during H1 and at a month-end, we would like to think that the UK deal closing could be very imminent - and maybe even today.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +82%) FY 2025: Trying to move the debate on from ...
The broad theme of Vodafone’s results remains the same as in past periods: Germany has been disappointing and has been the main focus of the market, but other parts of the business have been able to offset it, with increasing weight now on Vodacom for FY26.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +87%) Vodafone CFO departing: Quick thoughts
Vodafone has announced that Luka Mucic will be stepping down as Vodafone CFO by year-end, after only taking on the role in September 2023. We run through some quick thoughts on this move here and set out our estimates ahead of results in 2 weeks time
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +93%) Vodacom upside undervalued
When talking about Vodafone with market participants, almost all of the discussion tends to be on Germany. However, this morning my colleague Chris has upgraded his estimates for Vodacom and we have increased our target from ZAR150 to ZAR180 – with the full details published here. We believe the positive benefits from Vodacom are being overlooked in the Vodafone share price and we re-visit that thesis in this note with an updated view on Vodafone.
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €15.4, +24%) Q1 25: Solid numbers, guidance reiterat...
Orange has reported a solid set of results, with Telco revenue and EBITDA in-line with consensus expectations; the important French SR trends are slightly weaker (but ahead of consensus expectations), but all guidance for Group and divisions (including France) has been reiterated.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELCOS: What a recessionary scenario might look like
When the news of the Trump tariffs first hit the tapes, we didn’t write anything initially as a) we didn’t think we had much of value to add to the thousands of column inches already written on the topic, and b) the direct impact from the tariffs to the EU telecoms sector is minimal – resulting in relative outperformance for the group over the past few days.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +87%) India value extraction on the horizon?
Vodafone’s lock-up in India expires at the end of this month. Given the news today on a debt-for-equity swap involving the Indian Government at Vodafone Idea, we explore the implications of this and whether there could be a surprise value crystallisation for Vodafone on the cards.
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
M&A policy update – thoughts from Brussels and London with Pablo Asbo
It’s pretty clear that in-market M&A is a hot topic which we addressed in more detail in our recent sector M&A note. One of the reasons why speculation is rising about further deals is twofold we think: 1. Recent remedies in UK and Spain were non-intrusive in a historical context, making the deals attractive on a net basis; and 2. Politicians seem to be becoming more amenable to M&A, most notably Mario Draghi, and some are hoping that regulatory/legislative support will follow.
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €15.7, +35%) Altice France (SFR) (Most Preferred) Ili...
We were in Barcelona for the MWC this week. Please reach out if you would like to discuss any of the myriad of announcements made there. The biggest Telcos seemed to have focused their fire on in-market consolidation, with comments by the CEOs of Orange, DT and Telefonica.
- Russell Waller
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +107%) Model update - German EBITDA could just gr...
Following Vodafone’s results earlier today, we now publish an updated model to reflect their comments. We reduce our price target from 150p to 135p (4.8x EBITDAaL), but still believe that Vodafone’s “ambition” to grow German EBITDA in FY26 could just be possible.
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €15.1, +48%) Altice France (Most Preferred) Iliad (Eq...
Last week we reported in our tariff tracker, HERE, that some prices had risen in France. Since then, there have been further positive changes, including Iliad yesterday and Bouygues today, which we outline in this short report.
- James Ratzer
Revealing the spectrum sale details from Vod-Three to O2 (potentially!...
The merger of Vodafone-Three is the biggest change in the UK wireless market in many years. But potentially the second biggest change is the size of the spectrum sale from Vod-Three to O2. This has the potential to shape competitive dynamics for years to come and we believe we have unearthed new details of the spectrum transfer to steer people in the right direction for a likely outcome.
- James Ratzer
German mobile pricing deteriorating Assessing the most recent moves
Over the past few months, we have been writing on the increased signs of competitive intensity in the German mobile market. We are only nine days into the New Year and sadly there are signs of this further heating up with new moves by DT and 1&1. In this report, we review those moves in more detail and consider the potential impact on all the companies involved (DT, Vodafone, Telefonica and 1&1).
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
European Telecoms: The Year Ahead 2025 Ongoing regulatory support all...
2024 saw the best outperformance for the telecoms sector since 2013 (and the third best since 2000) and ironically this came in a year with one of the lowest announced M&A volumes. We believe this is a testament to improved perception of the underlying fundamentals.
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