Market reaction to Vodafone’s Q3 might be dominated by the weaker German broadband net adds figure, but we think the pricing trends look more encouraging and we see these as a reasonable set of results with all guidance reiterated.
In this note, we update our model and thoughts following the Q4 results (HERE) incorporating conference call feedback, feedback following meeting the CEO/CFO, and compare our new estimates to guidance and consensus. We have trimmed EBITDA slightly for 26/27, but have lifted OpFCF due to the good CapEx discipline.
Tele2 has reported a confusing set of results with lots of mixed messages. On the one hand, Q4 results were good, but 2026 EBITDAaL guidance is a but disappointing and at odds with current growth rates and looks beatable given likely Q1 growth rates.
Aedifica and Cofinimmo: Belgian Competition Authority approves the deal / AEGON: Sale of UK picking up early momentum / Allfunds Group PLC: Of Bourse they agreed / Ontex: Peer Essity 4Q25 results / Telecoms: Digital Networks Act take-aways / WDP: Catena to raise c.€255m via an ABB with WDP participating pro-rata for c.€26m
Over the past 3 years, the EU telecoms sector has had a great run – up >50%, despite modest underlying revenue/ EBITDA growth. This has almost entirely come from a deserved upwards re-rating in the multiple as the risk profile across the sector diminishes – which has been a key theme of ours in the past few years given improved regulation. So, we feel this has now largely played out.
Belgian Telecoms: DIGI Belgium CEO Interview: ‘We are running a marathon, not a sprint' IBA: IBA to install a Rhodotron in East China. Ontex: Another quarter, another profit warning. Theon International: Backlog visibility indeed. Xior: 2026 outlook positive but with no major surprise. Events Calendar
Vodafone and Vodacom have announced today that they will be taking control of Safaricom. Given the structure of the deal with Kenyan Government involving pre-paying dividends, we think the deal could offer better than expected accretion to Vodafone’s reported FCF for limited capital outflow.
Adecco: Introduces the agility advantage to grow, adapt and lead in the intelligent era. Belgian telcos: DAZN announces immediatele end for Belgian football broadcasting. CMB.TECH: Good 3Q thanks to its tankers. D'Ieteren: CFO buys more shares, State Farm seeks 6% California Auto Rate cut. Staffing: Belgium October Temp volume stable at -3.4% YoY despite tougher comps.
Arcadis: US peer Aecom sets a new standard for EBITDA margin potential. Belgian telecoms: Orange Belgium price increases from January. CFE: Keeps outlook, materially lower QoQ net debt. Flow Traders: Market volumes improve in October. IMCD: Awaiting a recovery. Kinepolis: Launches retail bond issuance for €100-150m. NEPI Rockcastle: Sound operational performance continues. Universal Music Group: EU to warn on Downtown deal
ABN Amro: 3Q mixed, NIBC M&A good value for money. Adyen: CMD highlights – confident on long-term growth Belgian Telecoms: Digi Belgium raises €104.5m in capital, after €80m capital increase in July. CM.com: Raises €5m through private placement. Recticel: Peer Rockwool's 3Q25 trading update. Zabka: Potential bidder for Carrefour Romania. Events Calendar
Vodafone has reported a decent set of H1 results and guidance has been moved to the upper-end of the guidance range (albeit us and consensus were already there). We think there is still a story for the multiple to be re-rated further – and even though there is new dividend guidance today, we also think there is potential for incremental cash return to come at the FY results.
Azelis: Appointment of Boris Cambon-Lalanne as group CFO. Belgian Telecoms: Price increase on most of the non-commercialised products and Scarlet trio. D'Ieteren: Belgian October car registrations down 7%, VW down 20%. Kendrion: Results preview; launching share buyback programme. Kinepolis: Acquires US movie theatre chain Emagine Entertainment for US$105m. Kinepolis: October box office in US/Canada and France attendance drop again. Ontex: Branded activity now fully divested. Philip...
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