A director at Tethys Oil AB sold 1,555,427 shares at 58.700SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Drilling at the second well onshore Morocco has commenced – Chariot has started to drill the Dartois prospect onshore Morocco. The well is targeting a different reservoir system and trapping style than the Gaufrette prospect. The main target at Dartois is estimated to hold 12 bcf of gross prospective resources. Success would de-risk a total of 20 bcf of gross prospective resources (+...
• 1Q24 production of 8,032 bbl/d had been previously reported. • The development plan for Block 56 is expected to be submitted to the government by the end of May. The associated reserves and resources are expected to be disclosed at that time. The development plan will include an EPF for Menna/Sarha and Al Jumd and a near field exploration strategy to rapidly increase production. • The high impact Kunooz-1 well is expected to spud in June. The well is targeting 123.5 mmbbl unrisked prospective...
• The South Lahan area on Block 58 is estimated to hold 55-523 mmbl prospective resources (P90-P10 case) with a mean case of 251.8 mmbbl prospective resources across six prospects in the Ara Carbonate. • Combined with the previously disclosed prospective resources of the Fahd area in the north-eastern part of Block 58, Tethys Oil’s unrisked recoverable prospective resources on the block are estimated to be 435.9 mmbbl (Pmean). • The geological chance of success ranges from 6% to 11% for the six...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Logging results at Welchau further derisk the discovery – The logging program has confirmed open fracture networks and vuggy porosity (matrix porosity) essential for well productivity coincident with hydrocarbon shows between 1346 m and 1702 m measured depth. This represents 356 m of gross interval across three interpreted lithological sequences. This compares with only 115 m of l...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Very high impact exploration well encounters gas and condensate in Austria – The Welchau well (ADX WI: 75%) encountered 115 m of liquids-rich gas shows in the primary target formation (Steinalm Formation) between 1452 m and 1567 m. The deepest gas shows were encountered at a depth of 1645 m. The well has reached TD at 1733 m. The Steinalm Formation intersection in the well is in l...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of £A$0.65 per share: Drilling update in Austria – The well site construction at the Welchau-1 drill site is complete. The drilling rig is expected to become available to ADX on 14 February. The rig move and rig assembly will take ~6 days after rig release. Drilling operations are expected to commence on 20 February with a duration of ~39 days. PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; target price of £1.45 per s...
• Overall 4Q23 financials were ahead of our expectations and, despite a small underlift position, YE23 cash was US$25.8 mm, above our forecasts of US$22.2 mm. • Tethys expects to spend US$90-94 mm capex in 2024. This is above our forecasts of US$70 mm that incorporated only US$10 mm of exploration and appraisal capex on Block 56 and Block 58. Instead they will spend US$26.5 mm (US$8 mm on Block 56 and US$18.5 mm on Block 58). Two exploration wells will be drilled at Block 58 (we had assumed onl...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ GeoPark (GPRK US)C; target price of US$24 per share: Further exploration success in Colombia – The Perico-1 exploration well at CPO-5 encountered hydrocarbons in the Barco (Guadalupe) formation. The well is currently producing 650 bbl/d of 14 deg API oil with 8% water cut. This is an important well that confirms the extension of the Llanos-34 Guadalupe play into CPO-5 and is probably derisking further prospects. This is the fifth disco...
• The Menna-1 well encountered hydrocarbons in the Al Khlata, Karim and Birba formations. The Menna prospect is located ~30 km south-west of the Al Jumd discovery, with which it shares similar characteristics. The prospect is one of several identified prospects on the Eastern Flank trend, stretching alongside the border of Block 6’s productive Karim Small Fields. • The well will now be tested. In a success case, this could increase the size of the development of the Eastern Flank (together with ...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.80 per share: Rig-up at Anshof-2 – The rig-up at Anshof-2 has commenced with an expected spud date of 11 November. XST (20% WI in Anshof) will not participate in the well. ADX and MND will fund XST’s share of well costs on 50:50 basis and will in turn retain the right to 60% and 40% respectively of production from the well unless XST opts to buy back into the well at a premium of 400% to the we...
• Net cash of ~US$28 mm at the end of September was near our expectations (~US$30 mm) but was impacted by a negative working capital movement (-US$1.5 mm). • WI production in October at Blocks 3&4 was 8,289 bbl/d and FY23 WI production is expected to be at the lower end of the 9 mbbl/d +/- 200 bbl/d guidance. The reduced FY23 capex guidance of US$81-86 mm had already been announced in August. • The key area of focus is Block-56 and the development and commercialization options for the Al-Jumd tr...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.08 per share : Completing farm-out transaction in Austria – The farm-out transaction of Anshof to MND has now completed with an initial payment of EUR1.93 mm. MND has further Anshof development funding obligations of EUR4.683 mm for the drilling, completion and tie-in of the Anshof-2 and Anshof-1 wells as well as payment of further contingent amounts of EUR1.335 mm and EUR3.57 mm (A$ 5.95 milli...
• 2Q23 financials were above our expectations with net cash of ~US$34 mm at the end of June (we expected US$31 mm). • 2Q23 WI production at Blocks 3&4 of 8,994 bbl/d had already been reported. The field continues to underperform but net production has stabilized at ~ 9 mbbl/d. Tethys has taken the cautious view of changing its FY23 production guidance from 9-10 mbbl/d to ~9 mbbl/d (+/- 0.2 mbbl/d). We have reduced our FY23 production forecast to 9 mbbl/d as well as our production estimates in fu...
• The 1Q23 financials were in line with our expectations with net cash of ~US$40 mm at the end of March. • 1Q23 production of 9,411 bbl/d had already been reported and is stable compared to 4Q22. • The FY23 production guidance of 9-10 mbbl/d has been re-iterated. • The company has declared a total distribution of SEK5 per share (SEK2 per share ordinary dividend + additional SEK3 per share mandatory redemption). This represents almost 10% dividend yield. In addition, Tethys has bought back US$2 ...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN)C: Target price of £0.45 per share: Reaching 2,635 bbl/d without Capella. High cash position – The RCE-5 well flowed 680 bbl/d (340 bbl/d net to Arrow) of oil over the last 24 hours. The well is heavily choked (17/168) and is still unloading completion fluid (12% water cut). As witnessed at the other RCE wells, production is expected to increase as the well stabilizes. Initial production at RCE-5 is above expe...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU) C; Target price of A$0.10 per share: Drilling news flow. Production growth. Value. – 2023 is expected to be a busy and transformational year for ADX. The company plans to grow gross production at Anshof (4.2 mmbbl net 2P reserves) to almost 1,000 bbl/d with two new wells by YE23. At that level, ADX can generate US$13 mm operating cashflow per year (after tax). This represents ~65% of the company’s market cap. The An...
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