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Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): Increasing further the size of the prize

• The South Lahan area on Block 58 is estimated to hold 55-523 mmbl prospective resources (P90-P10 case) with a mean case of 251.8 mmbbl prospective resources across six prospects in the Ara Carbonate. • Combined with the previously disclosed prospective resources of the Fahd area in the north-eastern part of Block 58, Tethys Oil’s unrisked recoverable prospective resources on the block are estimated to be 435.9 mmbbl (Pmean). • The geological chance of success ranges from 6% to 11% for the six...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/03/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Logging results at Welchau further derisk the discovery – The logging program has confirmed open fracture networks and vuggy porosity (matrix porosity) essential for well productivity coincident with hydrocarbon shows between 1346 m and 1702 m measured depth. This represents 356 m of gross interval across three interpreted lithological sequences. This compares with only 115 m of l...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 15/03/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Very high impact exploration well encounters gas and condensate in Austria – The Welchau well (ADX WI: 75%) encountered 115 m of liquids-rich gas shows in the primary target formation (Steinalm Formation) between 1452 m and 1567 m. The deepest gas shows were encountered at a depth of 1645 m. The well has reached TD at 1733 m. The Steinalm Formation intersection in the well is in l...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 16/02/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of £A$0.65 per share: Drilling update in Austria – The well site construction at the Welchau-1 drill site is complete. The drilling rig is expected to become available to ADX on 14 February. The rig move and rig assembly will take ~6 days after rig release. Drilling operations are expected to commence on 20 February with a duration of ~39 days. PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; target price of £1.45 per s...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): All eyes on Block 56. Outcome of strategic ...

• Overall 4Q23 financials were ahead of our expectations and, despite a small underlift position, YE23 cash was US$25.8 mm, above our forecasts of US$22.2 mm. • Tethys expects to spend US$90-94 mm capex in 2024. This is above our forecasts of US$70 mm that incorporated only US$10 mm of exploration and appraisal capex on Block 56 and Block 58. Instead they will spend US$26.5 mm (US$8 mm on Block 56 and US$18.5 mm on Block 58). Two exploration wells will be drilled at Block 58 (we had assumed onl...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Auctus on Friday - 19/01/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ GeoPark (GPRK US)C; target price of US$24 per share: Further exploration success in Colombia – The Perico-1 exploration well at CPO-5 encountered hydrocarbons in the Barco (Guadalupe) formation. The well is currently producing 650 bbl/d of 14 deg API oil with 8% water cut. This is an important well that confirms the extension of the Llanos-34 Guadalupe play into CPO-5 and is probably derisking further prospects. This is the fifth disco...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): New exploration well at Block 56 encounters...

• The Menna-1 well encountered hydrocarbons in the Al Khlata, Karim and Birba formations. The Menna prospect is located ~30 km south-west of the Al Jumd discovery, with which it shares similar characteristics. The prospect is one of several identified prospects on the Eastern Flank trend, stretching alongside the border of Block 6’s productive Karim Small Fields. • The well will now be tested. In a success case, this could increase the size of the development of the Eastern Flank (together with ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Auctus on Friday - 10/11/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.80 per share: Rig-up at Anshof-2 – The rig-up at Anshof-2 has commenced with an expected spud date of 11 November. XST (20% WI in Anshof) will not participate in the well. ADX and MND will fund XST’s share of well costs on 50:50 basis and will in turn retain the right to 60% and 40% respectively of production from the well unless XST opts to buy back into the well at a premium of 400% to the we...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): All eyes on Block 56. Upcoming high impact ...

• Net cash of ~US$28 mm at the end of September was near our expectations (~US$30 mm) but was impacted by a negative working capital movement (-US$1.5 mm). • WI production in October at Blocks 3&4 was 8,289 bbl/d and FY23 WI production is expected to be at the lower end of the 9 mbbl/d +/- 200 bbl/d guidance. The reduced FY23 capex guidance of US$81-86 mm had already been announced in August. • The key area of focus is Block-56 and the development and commercialization options for the Al-Jumd tr...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Auctus on Friday - 22/09/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.08 per share : Completing farm-out transaction in Austria – The farm-out transaction of Anshof to MND has now completed with an initial payment of EUR1.93 mm. MND has further Anshof development funding obligations of EUR4.683 mm for the drilling, completion and tie-in of the Anshof-2 and Anshof-1 wells as well as payment of further contingent amounts of EUR1.335 mm and EUR3.57 mm (A$ 5.95 milli...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): Lower production but positive appraisal res...

• 2Q23 financials were above our expectations with net cash of ~US$34 mm at the end of June (we expected US$31 mm). • 2Q23 WI production at Blocks 3&4 of 8,994 bbl/d had already been reported. The field continues to underperform but net production has stabilized at ~ 9 mbbl/d. Tethys has taken the cautious view of changing its FY23 production guidance from 9-10 mbbl/d to ~9 mbbl/d (+/- 0.2 mbbl/d). We have reduced our FY23 production forecast to 9 mbbl/d as well as our production estimates in fu...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): ~10% yield, stabilized production and very ...

• The 1Q23 financials were in line with our expectations with net cash of ~US$40 mm at the end of March. • 1Q23 production of 9,411 bbl/d had already been reported and is stable compared to 4Q22. • The FY23 production guidance of 9-10 mbbl/d has been re-iterated. • The company has declared a total distribution of SEK5 per share (SEK2 per share ordinary dividend + additional SEK3 per share mandatory redemption). This represents almost 10% dividend yield. In addition, Tethys has bought back US$2 ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Auctus on Friday - 14/04/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN)C: Target price of £0.45 per share: Reaching 2,635 bbl/d without Capella. High cash position – The RCE-5 well flowed 680 bbl/d (340 bbl/d net to Arrow) of oil over the last 24 hours. The well is heavily choked (17/168) and is still unloading completion fluid (12% water cut). As witnessed at the other RCE wells, production is expected to increase as the well stabilizes. Initial production at RCE-5 is above expe...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Auctus on Friday - 17/03/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU) C; Target price of A$0.10 per share: Drilling news flow. Production growth. Value. – 2023 is expected to be a busy and transformational year for ADX. The company plans to grow gross production at Anshof (4.2 mmbbl net 2P reserves) to almost 1,000 bbl/d with two new wells by YE23. At that level, ADX can generate US$13 mm operating cashflow per year (after tax). This represents ~65% of the company’s market cap. The An...

John Olaisen ... (+2)
  • John Olaisen
  • Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen

Tethys Oil - Acting on growth prospects

Q3 in line, no notable estimate revisions Acting on growth prospects, looks interesting MtM NAV of SEK 91/sh, sizable dividend likely for ’20

John Olaisen ... (+2)
  • John Olaisen
  • Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen

Tethys Oil - Q3 was in line with estimates

Q3 EBITDA of USD 27m was in line Shows at Yusr-1, initiatives on Block 49 and 56 in focus No meaningful estimate revisions expected

John Olaisen ... (+2)
  • John Olaisen
  • Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen

Tethys Oil - Strong production continues

Another quarter with ATH production We expect SEK 4.5/sh in free cash flow Our MtM NAV points to SEK 89/sh

John Olaisen ... (+2)
  • John Olaisen
  • Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen

Tethys Oil - Q2 was good – exploration activites ongoing

Q2 was a beat – estimates up Exploration activities ongoing Our NAV points to SEK 94/sh

John Olaisen ... (+2)
  • John Olaisen
  • Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen

Tethys Oil - Q2 beat from Tethys Oil

EBITDA +11% vs. ABGSC & cons on liftings and cost Firms up production guidance Some positive estimate revisions expected

John Olaisen ... (+2)
  • John Olaisen
  • Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen

Tethys Oil - Production at new all-time high in Q2

Production reports indicate production up 8.2% q-o-q We expect good cash flow in Q2 Our NAV points to SEK 91/sh

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