Morning Notes : CPINV BB, DIE BB, ENX FP, MDXH BB, ALFEN NA, SYENS BB

: CPINV BB, DIE BB, ENX FP, MDXH BB, ALFEN NA, SYENS BB

Alfen A growth company that doesn't grow

In this note we adjust our estimates as Alfen's 1Q25 results have once again fallen short of expectations. The outlook for the smart grid solutions segment, which was anticipated to be robust, disappointed. Despite investment plans highlighting labour shortages, the impact has been more severe than anticipated. Additionally, gross profit margins dynamics in the smart grid segment are well below our expectations. In the EV charging segment, public demand was low, while increased competition in th...

Alfen/Less appealing than we thought/HOLD (previously Buy)

Alfen has lowered both its FY25 revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance. We cut our FY25F EBITDA estimate by 39%. Our old forecasts aimed at the mid-point of the former revenue guidance and we now aim at the low end of the new revenue guidance. With regards to the adjusted EBITDA margin guidance we aim below the low end of the new guidance as the gross margin mix works against Alfen. We change our recommendation from Buy to HOLD. The two ingredients for our prior bullish view were: (1) Posit...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 05/13/2025

ODDO BHF SECURITIES Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 13/05/2025

Benelux Morning Notes

Alfen: Dead cat bounce? Ayvens: Overhang cure. Belgian telcos: Hey! discontinues €5 offer, OBEL price increases from June 2025. B&S Group: Pulls FY EBITDA guidance in light of tariffs. D'Ieteren: CMD, 1Q25 Preview. Kendrion: Wrestling through difficult macro conditions. NN Group, ASR: Vote on Dutch pension reforms postponed. TKH Group: Not that bad, good progress at Eemshaven. UCB: US Most Favoured Nation initiative back on the agenda. Vastned: Good results, integration ongoing...

Alfen: slow Q1 as expected, FY25 guidance cut

Alfen published Q1 2025 figures yesterday. Revenue came in at EUR103.8m (-23% QoQ vs. EUR134.5m in Q4 2024, -11% YoY vs. EUR116.8m in Q1 2024) mainly due to challenging dynamics in EV charging and Energy Storage. This compares with FY25 revenue consensus standing at EUR483m. Q1 numbers were impacte

Morning Notes : ENX FP, GLPG NA, HYL BB, SOLB BB, TWEKA NA, EKOP BB, A...

: ENX FP, GLPG NA, HYL BB, SOLB BB, TWEKA NA, EKOP BB, ALFEN NA

Alfen : Not delivering on an expected recovery

Benelux Morning Notes

AB InBev: Strong brew. Adecco: 1Q25 beats on timing of JV income; 2Q25 outlook momentum positive. Alfen: Preview - 1Q25 should arrive in line. AMG: Strong 1Q25 EBITDA beat, guidance raised. BAM Group: Non-residential backs EBITDA increase. CTP: Strong results combined with strong message on demand dynamics. JDE Peet's: Jumping Beans. Kinepolis: Peer AMC 1Q25 results - revenues per visitor more subdued. Prosus: CEO letter highlights strong profit growth in 2026. Proximus: CpaaS ...

Benelux Morning Notes

Arcadis: Short-term uncertainty, long-term continues to look attractive. Coverage change. Results Calendar

Alfen/Specific qualities for a specific audience/BUY (previously Hold)

Alfen's 4Q24 results were broadly in line with our expectations, but with the new medium-term objectives as well as the more specific 2025 guidance undershooting our below consensus expectations. We therefore cut our 2025-26 revenue estimates by 11% and 14% and our EBITDA estimates by 28% and 24% respectively. Management did bite the bullet and provided more cautious end market growth prospects for the different business segments. Equally importantly, several cost actions were taken that should ...

Morning Notes : ADYEN NA, AGFB BB, BFIT NA, IMMO BB, TINC BB, ALFEN NA...

: ADYEN NA, AGFB BB, BFIT NA, IMMO BB, TINC BB, ALFEN NA, ZEAL DC

Alfen: Michelle Lesh steps down as CCO

This morning, Alfen announced that Michelle Lesh, who has served as Alfen's CCO since 2021, has decided to step down from her role, effective 31st March 2025. Over the past four years, Michelle was instrumental in leading Alfen’s commercial and business development efforts across all three of its b

Morning Notes : GREEN BB, TINC BB, ALFEN NA

: GREEN BB, TINC BB, ALFEN NA

Alfen Between a rock and a hard place

In this note, we analyse Alfen's recent financial performance and future outlook. Despite being undervalued based on fundamentals, Alfen faces significant challenges. The company must navigate a delicate balance: they can't afford to set overly optimistic targets and risk missing them, but setting targets too low could undermine investor confidence. We lower our revenue and margin estimates based on the current market conditions. Consequently, our DCF based target price decreases from € 24 to € ...

Alfen: FY24 results, disappointing outlook

Yesterday, Alfen published FY24 revenues (down 3.3% YoY at EUR487.6m) broadly in line with consensus and BGe expectations (respectively EUR483.0m and EUR485.2m). Gross margin, however, came in at 23.7% (-6.3ppt vs. 30.0% in FY23) and was affected by significant one-off items whereas adjusted EBITDA

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 02/13/2025

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 13/02/2025

Benelux Morning Notes

Ackermans & van Haaren: Acquisition of boutique wealth manager Petram & Co. Alfen: Takes care of costs and debt, guidance misses. Arcadis: Solid backlog growth provides comfort. BAM: A friend of ours, 10% yield. CM.com: 2H24 results – FCF positive, capital restructuring. dsm-firmenich: Cash in, cash back. Flow Traders: Roller Coaster. KBC: Encouraging outlook to 2027, poor dividend. RELX: FY24 results – in line, £1.5bn buyback in 2025. Talabat: A beat at its maiden 4Q24 results...