reports
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Lewi
- Thibault Leneeuw
Alfen Confidence break-down needs time to repair
In this note we zoom in on last week's profit warning, the financing situation and the site visit to Alfen. In the short term Alfen needs to get a waiver for their RCF, as long as that hasn't materialised, we expect limited upside. Additionally, we lower our estimates, due to the slowdown and increased costs. The market is now focussed on the short term issues and has given up on the long term energy transition potential. We adjust our valuation method to include both horizons : a multiple appr...
- Oliver Metzger
- Stephan Wulf
- Oliver Metzger
- Stephan Wulf
- Mahaut Arnaud
- Paul de Froment
- Thomas Mordelle
Alfen: Managing ups and downs
Following Alfen's profit warning on Wednesday, we revise our estimates to reflect the new FY 2024 guidance as well as the ongoing medium-term targets reassessment. With significant ordering delays in Energy Storage, lower BEV ramp-up in Europe and supply-constrained Smart Grids division, the revise
- Thijs Berkelder
Alfen : Full pressure on new CFO: key is to regain investor trust
>Feedback site visit + management Q&A - No surprise probably, but main analyst focus was on the new ad-interim CFO. Yesterday - June 27, a day after the profit warning and the following collapse of the share price by around 50%, Alfen hosted a sell-side analyst tour around its newly upgraded manufacturing sites in Almere (the Netherlands) followed by a Q&A session with management including CEO Marco Roeleveld and CCO Michele Lesh, but with a special focus to get to kn...
- Nicolas David
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 06/26/2024
Our conviction on the long-term growth potential and opportunities of generative AI is renewed. The enabler sectors (semiconductors, software and IT services) and those that provide the infrastructure (utilities, metals, capital goods and real estate) will be the primary beneficiaries, leading us to make certain target price changes. Among AI ‘user’ sectors (media, healthcare, automotive, banking and insurance, oil services, defence, aerospace and airlines), the effects will doubtless...
ATO ATOS SE
ACN ACCENTURE PLC CLASS A
INF INFOTEL SA
ASY ASSYSTEM SA
SQI SQLI SA
SWP SWORD GROUP SE
AUB AUBAY SA
ATE ALTEN SA
ACX ACERINOX SA
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
VRNL VERNEUIL PARTICIPATIONS
CTAC CTAC N.V.
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
COK CANCOM SE
BC8 BECHTLE AG
ADN1 ADESSO AG
TWEKA TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
HBH HORNBACH HOLDING AG & CO. KGAA
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
ECONT ECONOCOM GROUP SE CLASS D
REY REPLY S.P.A.
ALFEN ALFEN NV
AEIN ALLGEIER HOLDING AG
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
FQT FREQUENTIS AG WIENER
NA9 NAGARRO
EXN EXCLUSIVE NETWORKS SA
OVH OVH GROUPE
EBUS EBUSCO HLDG NV
IOS IONOS GROUP SE
- Baptiste Salaville
- Marc Lavaud
- Nicolas David
- Philippe Ourpatian
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 26/06/2024
Notre conviction sur le potentiel de croissance LT et d’opportunités de l’IA générative est renforcée. Les secteurs 'enablers' (semiconducteurs, software et IT services) et fournisseurs d’infrastructures (utilities, métaux, biens d'équipements et immobilier) en seront les premiers bénéficiaires, conduisant à certains changements d’OC. Parmi les secteurs ‘utilisateurs’ de l’IA (média, santé, automobile, banque et assurance, services pétroliers, défense, aéronautique et compagnies aérie...
ATO ATOS SE
ACN ACCENTURE PLC CLASS A
INF INFOTEL SA
ASY ASSYSTEM SA
SQI SQLI SA
SWP SWORD GROUP SE
AUB AUBAY SA
ATE ALTEN SA
ACX ACERINOX SA
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
VRNL VERNEUIL PARTICIPATIONS
CTAC CTAC N.V.
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
COK CANCOM SE
BC8 BECHTLE AG
ADN1 ADESSO AG
TWEKA TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
HBH HORNBACH HOLDING AG & CO. KGAA
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
ECONT ECONOCOM GROUP SE CLASS D
REY REPLY S.P.A.
ALFEN ALFEN NV
AEIN ALLGEIER HOLDING AG
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
FQT FREQUENTIS AG WIENER
NA9 NAGARRO
EXN EXCLUSIVE NETWORKS SA
OVH OVH GROUPE
EBUS EBUSCO HLDG NV
IOS IONOS GROUP SE
- Thijs Berkelder
Alfen : Cutting guidance for all business lines
>Revenue guidance down by 20% to around € 500m - Alfen this morning announces it lowers it 2024 guidance for revenues by c. 20% to € 485-520m (from € 590-660m), and lowers its guidance on the adjusted EBITDA margin to mid single digit (from > 11.3%). Alfen expects to be FCF negative in 2024, but improved compared to - € 27.2m in 2023.Its downward adjust guidance on all its business lines:- Energy Storage Systems: a number of large Energy Storage Systems deal...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Alfen: Profit warning. ASR: CMD expectations, capital accumulation substantial in 2025-26. Barco: Co-CEO Charles Beauduin steps down. Belgian telecoms: Orange Belgium prepares for battle ahead of Digi arrival. D'Ieteren: PHE day feedback, ambition to double in size. Exor: Increases its stake in Philips to 17.51% Gimv: Investing in Infrastructure, optional dividend terms. Just Eat Takeaway.com: DoorDash reportedly interested in Deliveroo. SBM Offshore: Preparating for two new hull...
- Mahaut Arnaud
- Paul de Froment
- Thomas Mordelle
Alfen: Lowered FY24 outlook
This morning, Alfen has adjusted its FY24 revenue and EBITDA guidance, now eyeing EUR485-520m revenue (-19% vs previous range at EUR590-660m) with mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA and negative FCF (vs >11.3% and positive FCF), below the consensus at EUR599m revenue with 11% EBITDA. Medium-term o
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Michiel Declercq
- Wim Lewi
- Mahaut Arnaud
- Paul de Froment
- Thomas Mordelle
Alfen: large substation contract with TEC
This morning, Alfen announced it has secured a double-digit million euro contract with TEC, one of the three Belgian public transport operators, to deliver customised medium-voltage walk-in substations for its bus fleet electrification in the Walloon region. Under this two-year framework agreement,
- Jacob Mekhael
- Thomas Vranken
- Baptiste Salaville
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Jerôme Bodin
- Robert Jan Vos
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 06/11/2024
As part of the consolidation of the renewable energy sector, an acquisition in cash of Solaria by Endesa, at a price of € 20 (+73%) would make strategic and financial sense, without endangering balance sheet strength. It would give Endesa a new growth trajectory and allow its parent company, Enel, to benefit from Solaria’s ongoing solar energy developments in Italy and Germany. Our positive ratings are based on a speculative approach for Solaria and the resilience of the integrated bu...
- Baptiste Salaville
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Jerôme Bodin
- Robert Jan Vos
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 11/06/2024
Dans le cadre de la consolidation du secteur des énergies renouvelables, une acquisition en numéraire de Solaria par Endesa, à un prix estimé de 20 € (+73%), ferait sens au plan stratégique et financier, sans risque sur la solidité bilantielle. Cette opération donnerait une nouvelle trajectoire de croissance à Endesa et permettrait à sa maison mère, Enel, de bénéficier des développements solaires en cours de Solaria en Italie et en Allemagne. Nos opinions positives se fondent sur une ...
- Geoffroy Michalet
- Juan Ros-Padilla
- Robert Jan Vos
ODDO : Food Retail update: where do we stand with our sector hierarchy...
>Update: our hierarchy is working, but alpha remains low - We published a sector note on 14 March (link). We established our hierarchy, with Jeronimo Martins as Top Pick, followed by Ahold Delhaize as Outperform. We took the opportunity to downgrade Carrefour to Neutral, which was already the case on Colruyt and pessimistic on Casino. After three months, some Q1, market share figures and CMDs, we take a step back on this hierarchy. Overall, of the five companies in ou...
- Geoffroy Michalet
- Juan Ros-Padilla
- Robert Jan Vos
ODDO : Point d’étape Food Retail : où en est-on avec notre hiérarchie ...
>Point d’étape : notre hiérarchie fonctionne, mais l’alpha reste faible - Nous avons publié une note sectorielle le 14 mars 2024 (lien). Nous avions établi notre hiérarchie, avec en Jeronimo Martins en Top Pick, suivie d’Ahold Delhaize en Surperformance. Nous en avions profité pour dégrader Carrefour à Neutre, alors que nous l’étions étions déjà sur Colruyt et étions toujours sceptiques sur Casino. Après 3 mois, nous profitons de la publication des T1 et des CMD, ains...
- Jacob Mekhael
Sequana Medical Presents alfapump QOL benefit in liver ascites at EASL
Sequana will present previously reported outcomes from a matched cohort analysis of the POSEIDON study and NACSELD3 registry showing a quality of life benefit with comparable safety for the alfapump vs. standard of care (paracentesis) in liver ascites, at EASL being held 5-8 June. We believe the data continues to support the alfapump's positioning and look forward to PMA approval expected in 1Q25, and subsequent US commercial launch in 2H25. We reiterate our BUY rating and € 6 TP.
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