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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

ABN Amro: Miss but strong capital, good set of results / Ahold Delhaize: Strong 4Q25 but no major surprise on FY26 adj. EPS guidance / Alfen: No recovery yet and another transitional year / BAM Group: Preview: 2026 outlook the key item / Econocom: Better REBITA, net debt, but EBIT below, much lower net profit, dividend halved, 2026-28 guidance postponed to “medium term” / Exor: Ferrari 4Q25 and 2026 guidance beat / Gecina: Results and guidance in line, DPS set to grow over 2026-30 / Heineken: No...

Guy Sips ... (+6)
  • Guy Sips
  • Mathijs Geerts Danau
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Hoste
Thijs Berkelder
  • Thijs Berkelder
Guy Sips ... (+5)
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Mathijs Geerts Danau
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Wim Lewi
  • Wim Lewi

Elia Group German government agrees on 25.1% Tennet stake

Yesterday, the German government (via KfW) secured a 25.1% "blocking minority" in TenneT's German operations. The €3.3bn deal ends years of negotiations between Germany and the Netherlands. The deal is struck at the same equity value following the capital contribution (46%) from ABP, GIC and Norges Bank in 09/25 at a total equity value of 13.3bn. TenneT NL will hold the remaining 28.9%. We understand from the Handelsblatt that KfW will invest an additional €1.7bn before 2035. TenneT GE will no...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aedifica and Cofinimmo: Exchange offer to start tomorrow / Alfen: Preview: new year, new chances / BAM Group: Nice add-on in the Dutch housing market / dsm-firmenich: Givaudan 2026 guidance read-across / Heijmans: Preview: 2025F was the cat's meow / Melexis: 4Q25 preview, towards a cyclical recovery / TomTom: Preview 4Q25, look beyond 2026 / Van Lanschot Kempen: Small UK Fiduciary mandate, second of the month though

David Vagman ... (+16)
  • David Vagman
  • CFA
  • Dirk Verbiesen
  • Francesca Ferragina
  • Jason Kalamboussis
  • Marc Hesselink
  • CFA
  • Marc Zwartsenburg
  • CEFA
  • Maxime Stranart
  • Michiel Vereycken
  • Quirijn Mulder
  • Reg Watson
  • CFA
  • Thymen Rundberg
  • Tijs Hollestelle

ING Benelux Favourites/Aedifica, Ageas, ASM International, Basic-Fit, ...

We refresh our ING Benelux Favourites list. We apply a fundamental bottom up approach in which we select stocks which provide the best upside within our Benelux coverage universe and these stocks need clear catalysts. Additions/deletions: We add the following names to the ING Benelux Favourites list: Ageas: Ageas has done multiple deals; its most recent purchase of the 25% stake BNP Paribas had in its Belgian ops, is an accretive deal and we believe makes the Belgian operations ready for a pot...

Guy Sips ... (+6)
  • Guy Sips
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Livio Luyten
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Wim Lewi
Wim Lewi
  • Wim Lewi

Elia Group AI investment tsunami whips up TSO valuations

We upgrade our recommendation to Accumulate and raise our price target to €135.0 from €110.0 on multiple expansion over the next 6 to 12 months. We leave our EPS estimates for FY26-27 unchanged, but increase our price target to 22x FY27 EPS. Our previous target was based on 20x FY26 EPS, but we roll forward on a 10% higher multiple as the sentiment towards grid operators benefits from the “wall of money” into datacenters, while grid connection is the bottleneck. It can take years before the ROE ...

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Credit Morning 01/26/2026

INEOS Quattro: € 200m equity injection|Daniel Kretinsky launches takeover bid for Fnac Darty|

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Morning Crédit 26/01/2026

INEOS Quattro: € 200m equity injection|Daniel Kretinsly lance une OPA sur le capital de Fnac Darty|

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: 4Q25 consensus release. Basic-Fit: Trading update FY25 and outlook FY26; both beat ING estimates. CVC Capital Partners plc: It's a Marathon

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+4)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Lewi
ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Basic-Fit: Consensus FY25 and FY26 released / Belgian Telecoms: DIGI Belgium introduces 5G FWA at €7 per month and increased data on mobile-only offers / NSI: €50m seven-year unsecured notes issuance with a 4.59% coupon / Sofina: Newsletter #17: NAV per share underperforms

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Arcadis: Consensus estimates for 4Q25 and FY25-27. Flow Traders: Market value traded grew YoY in December on low volatility. Universal Music Group: Spotify to increase prices by 8% in the United States. Events Calendar

Marc Zwartsenburg ... (+4)
  • Marc Zwartsenburg
  • CEFA
  • Reg Watson
  • CFA

Basic-Fit/Converting to a Basic-Fit Feel-Good Club?/BUY

We reiterate our BUY rating but raise our target price from €35.0 to €43.0 driven by our increased estimates on the back of the strong membership momentum and the consolidation of Clever Fit, which in our view provides attractive upside potential. Note that we have not yet modelled in the potential savings from a change in business model for the 24/7 gyms in France, but we did include the VAT increase in Belgium. We also underline that BFIT remains on the ING Benelux Favourites list.

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Basic-Fit: The Gym Group pre-close trading update / Fastned: 4Q25 preview / KPN: Vodafone new unlimited subscriptions with 1Gbps speed / Lotus Bakeries: Peer Lindt & Sprüngli FY25 sales / Ontex: Change in CEO brought forward and launch of a strategic review / Staffing sector: Page Group 4Q25 trading update / Zabka: Another miss on like-for-like growth.

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