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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Allfunds Group plc: 1Q25 Preview. Azelis: 1Q25 EBITA miss on tariff uncertainty, €20m self-help to support margins. Exor: Announces oversubscribed €1bn SBB tender offer, strike at VWAP +2%. Flow Traders: Mike drop. Fugro: 1Q25 as expected but outlook a question mark. IMCD: Breaking with tradition: CEO gone within 15 months. Kinepolis: Weak 1Q25, offset by a strong 2Q25 start. KPN: Small 1Q25 EBITDAal beat, guidance reiterated. Randstad: Capital Markets Event. RELX: 1Q25 trading...

Guy Sips ... (+10)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Livio Luyten
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Lewi

Morning Notes : FLOW NA, FUR NA, GLPG NA, KIN BB, KPN NA, XFAB FP, AZE...

: FLOW NA, FUR NA, GLPG NA, KIN BB, KPN NA, XFAB FP, AZE BB, IMCD NA, ONWD BB, AUTL US, EXO NA, ZEAL DC, PHVS US

Kristof Samoy ... (+5)
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Hoste

Morning Notes : AKZA NA, BESI NA, CRBN NA, CMBT BB, FLOW NA, RAND NA, ...

: AKZA NA, BESI NA, CRBN NA, CMBT BB, FLOW NA, RAND NA, VPK NA, TKWY NA

Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Couvreur

Flow Traders Trump volatility resulting in a massive tailwind

The volatility caused by initial trade war worries in 1Q25 is expected to result in a solid quarter; though partially compensated by more subdued digital assets trading. The market turmoil created by the reciprocal tariff announcement on April 2nd will result in a very strong 2Q25, hinting back to what we saw in 2020. Although visibility going forward is very limited, our base case assumes continued elevated volatility & trading levels until at least the November 2026 US Congress elections. Our ...

Ahmed Ben Salem ... (+2)
  • Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Baptiste Lebacq
Marc Zwartsenburg ... (+2)
  • Marc Zwartsenburg
  • CEFA

PostNL/Model update/HOLD

We have updated our model post FY24 reporting and we included the restated segment reporting with Real Estate sales and results now included in Parcels versus in MailNL previously. Note that PostNL guided for an underlying EBIT for FY25F of c.€53m, ie, in line with FY24. We estimate €48m, which is a significant downgrade vs the pre-FY24 results estimate of €98m. We feel that the outlook for FY25 is not without downside risk as (a) much will depend on a strong 4Q as we expect a rather soft start ...

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