reports
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #63
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how sub-sectors within our Consumer coverage have fared since the beginni
- Clement Genelot
Maisons du Monde: another year of sales decline and restructuring in 2...
Post-FY 2024, we see 2025 as another year of declining sales and restructuring with management rightly focusing on FCF to preserve the company until the French furniture market recovers. We remain below MdM's >EUR100m cumulative FCF target as we remain more cautious regarding a market recovery i
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #61
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how Trump's hectic trade policy impacts US consumer sentiment. Happy read
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #60
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the relative catch-up by European stocks. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: Southeast Asia remains an issue
The recent Momentum Works' annual Asian update showed a continuous market share loss across Southeast Asia for Delivery Hero, reviving debate about this underperforming and loss-making unit. We continue to believe that a sale at any price or even a pure exit would eventually be positive for Deliver
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: more investments and no improvement in FCF conversion o...
The Q4 trading update proved to be reassuring for the Middle-East whereas Korea's recovery remains hypothetical. We have notched down our FY 2025 EBITDA again on the back of disappointing FY guidance, marked by additional investments in Korea and a slower development of adtech. We remain on the sid
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: surfing on USD while sticking to good execution on pro...
Understanding the Q4 US EBIT miss and looking ahead to 2025 is reassuring in terms of Ahold Delhaize's ability to continue to turn around its underperforming US banners, optimise Europe and integrate Profi while sustaining a strong EBIT margin. PT lifted to EUR37 mostly thanks to the USD surge sinc
- Arancha Pineiro
AHOLD DELHAIZE: RDOS. 4T’24 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
Rdos. 4T'24 vs 4T'23: Ventas: 23.276 M euros (+1,1% vs +0,4% BS(e) y +0,8% consenso); EBIT: 958,0 M euros (-3,8% vs -6,9% BS(e) y -5,5% consenso); BDI: 380,0 M euros (-15,7% vs +44,1% BS(e) y +48,6% consenso). Rdos. 2024 vs 2023: Ventas: 89.356 M euros (+0,8% vs +0,6% BS(e) y +0,7% consenso); EBIT: 3.608 M euros (+0,1% vs -0,8% BS(e) y -0,4% consenso); BDI: 1.764 M euros (-5,9% vs +8,5% BS(e) y +9,6% consenso).
- Clement Genelot
Food Delivery: new ratings hierarchy for a new year
As we enter 2025, we are looking for self-help levers capable of further boosting food delivery platforms' growth/FCF profiles while putting consolidation options aside. After a very efficient year in 2024 for our ratings hierarchy, we are now adjusting it by double-upgrading Just Eat Takeaway to B
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: the Kroger/Albertsons merger is dead, now what?
As the Kroger/Albertsons merger is falling apart, we foresee revived M&A activity in the US grocery market and have taken a closer look at Ahold Delhaize's potential role in it. We would view any large-scale deal negatively, but welcome bolt-on acquisitions as long as they do not jeopardise Aho
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #52
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. For the last Consumer Weekly of 2024, we look at the normal inertia effect between improving US
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #51
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the new record high reached by online shopping during the Cyber Week 2024.
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: understanding the cash implications behind the Spanish ...
With Delivery Hero about to lose in the lower courts in Spain, it has decided to shift its rider model to an employment model in the country. This should cut FY EBITDA by EUR100m causing a 9% css cut with gradual payments to be made to cope with contingencies (EUR200m/year over three years in our v
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: Talabat IPO spicing up investment case
The Talabat sub-IPO brings EUR1.9bn, de-levers the balance sheet to below 2x net debt/EBITDA and has already fuelled a 65% share price recovery. But a closer look at the SOTP shows that other businesses beyond Talabat are valued at just 6x EV/EBITDA (i.e.like a food retailer) and 9x for Korea (slig
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #49
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the Q3 earnings season across consumer segments with a comparison between
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: model update
Post-Q3 trading update, we have again updated our model with an unchanged PT at EUR46 (based on a mix of DCF and SOTP) and a Buy rating.FY 2025 estimates adjustment: We have left our FY 2024 estimates unchanged but cut our FY 2025 EBITDA by c.EUR60m or c.5% to reflect more investments in Korea (rev
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: all eyes on asset value maximisation ahead of Korea rel...
Post-Q3, we understand that the EBITDA warning was driven by a delayed and more harmful reshuffling of the commercial offer and subscription programme in Korea, a more temporary than structural element with 2025 set to return to growth and market share gains in the region. We maintain our PT at EUR
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: still executing and delivering well
Ahold Delhaize continues to execute and deliver well, laying strong foundations for a less risky repositioning of US business from 2025, and for a long-term recovery in European business. PT raised to EUR34 to reflect our slight estimates lift, the DCF & SOTP roll-over and new buyback accretion
- Arancha Pineiro
AHOLD DELHAIZE: RDOS. 3T’24 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
Rdos. 3T'24 vs 3T'23: Ventas: 22.003 M euros (+0,3% vs 0,0% BS(e) y -0,1% consenso); EBIT: 855,0 M euros (+1,9% vs +0,5% BS(e) y -0,2% consenso); BDI: 372,0 M euros (-5,6% vs +8,1% BS(e) y +7,6% consenso); Rdos. 9meses'24 vs 9meses'23: Ventas: 66.080 M euros (+0,7% vs +0,6% BS(e) y +0,6% consenso); EBIT: 2.649 M euros (+1,6% vs +1,2% BS(e) y +0,9% consenso); BDI: 1.384 M euros (-2,7% vs +1,1% BS(e) y +0,9% consenso).
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