reports
- Clément Genelot
MdM: still a risky bet on furniture market recovery post-Q2
Post-weak Q2 for sales, EBIT and FCF, we have cut our FCF estimates by 9% and our PT to EUR1.9 on the back of higher operating de-leverage and a lower WCR tailwind. Beyond an emerging inflexion point in French real estate transactions (that remains to be confirmed), we are still cautious about the
- Clément Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: Q2 momentum to hold up, USD weighing on FY
Ahead of H1 2025 earnings on 6th August, we have marginally lifted our Q2 2025E sales and EBIT forecasts by c.1%. Despite a solid underlying Q2 setup, we have trimmed our FY25-27 EPS by 2% to reflect the June USD devaluation and expect EPS FY guidance to be cut in line with css and SFe forecasts fo
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
Suspension of Coverage
From 2nd of June we are suspending coverage of companies below due to a reallocation of resources. Our prior estimates should no longer be used as an indicator for the company moving forward.ADIDASBEIERSDORFCARREFOURDELIVERY HEROESSILORLUXOTTICAHELLOFRESHHermès InternationalHUGO BOSSINTERPARFUMSJUS
ADS ADIDAS AG
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
ITP INTERPARFUMS
OR L'OREAL SA
KER KERING SA
ZAL ZALANDO SE
SFL SAFILO GROUP S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
SFER SALVATORE FERRAGAMO S.P.A.
TKWY JUST EAT TAKEAWAY.COM N.V.
CFR RICHEMONT
BEI BEIERSDORF
BOSS HUGO BOSS
DHER DELIVERY HERO
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
RBO ROCHE BOBOIS INTERNATIONAL SAS
EF ESSILORLUXOTTICA
UHR THE SWATCH GROUP
MC LVMH
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #71
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how tariffs have dominated recent earnings calls over other topics such a
- Clement Genelot
Food for thought on Ahold Delhaize's aborted acquisition talks with Ca...
Ahold Delhaize is said to have approached Carrefour in late 2024 before walking away in January 2025. The failed discussions are positive for us as a deal would have totally transformed Ahold Delhaize's equity story from "defensive/yield" to a tentative and very risky "growth/recovery" with a likel
- Clement Genelot
Food Retail: trade war lifted multiples, beware of future sector rotat...
European food retail enjoyed a paradoxical 1.5x P/E expansion vs. deteriorating earnings trend YTD now turning negative, fuelled by a sector rotation with investors looking for defensive stocks. With trade wars easing, we have reviewed the valuation, earnings momentum and sector indicators for each
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #70
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the initial impact of tariffs on the US consumer and economy. Happy readi
- Clement Genelot
Maisons du Monde: no sign of commercial sequential improvement
Post-weak Q1 sales marked by no sequential improvement on easy comps and market share losses, we foresee a delayed recovery in France and cut our FY 2025 sales by 1% and our EBIT & FCF by >40%. Our new EUR2.4 PT reflects a slight return to growth only from 2026 onwards. Beyond management's s
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: Europe to make up for US margin erosion this year
Post a strong Q1 print, we have cut our FY25 EBIT and EPS by 2% and 3% respectively, to reflect the reversing USD while a faster European profitability recovery should offset likely US margin erosion fuelled by a dilutive sales mix. PT lifted to EUR39 however, with a lower beta and untouched safe-h
- Arancha Pineiro
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #68
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at fragile US consumer sentiment which might precede a sharp pullback in spe
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #67
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the largest beauty groups in the world. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: persistent concerns and no short-term catalyst in sight
Post-Q1, we remain impressed by the MENA performance and sceptical about the recovery in Korea. Neutral reiterated with a EUR36 PT despite >30% upside as we see no short-term catalyst to engage a rerating from 8.3x EV/EBITDA. Mounting legal issues in Spain & Italy, an uncertain recovery in K
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #66
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the correlation between robust financial markets and healthy US consumer
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #63
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how sub-sectors within our Consumer coverage have fared since the beginni
- Clement Genelot
Maisons du Monde: another year of sales decline and restructuring in 2...
Post-FY 2024, we see 2025 as another year of declining sales and restructuring with management rightly focusing on FCF to preserve the company until the French furniture market recovers. We remain below MdM's >EUR100m cumulative FCF target as we remain more cautious regarding a market recovery i
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #61
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how Trump's hectic trade policy impacts US consumer sentiment. Happy read
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #60
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the relative catch-up by European stocks. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: Southeast Asia remains an issue
The recent Momentum Works' annual Asian update showed a continuous market share loss across Southeast Asia for Delivery Hero, reviving debate about this underperforming and loss-making unit. We continue to believe that a sale at any price or even a pure exit would eventually be positive for Deliver
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: more investments and no improvement in FCF conversion o...
The Q4 trading update proved to be reassuring for the Middle-East whereas Korea's recovery remains hypothetical. We have notched down our FY 2025 EBITDA again on the back of disappointing FY guidance, marked by additional investments in Korea and a slower development of adtech. We remain on the sid
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