MdM: still a risky bet on furniture market recovery post-Q2

Post-weak Q2 for sales, EBIT and FCF, we have cut our FCF estimates by 9% and our PT to EUR1.9 on the back of higher operating de-leverage and a lower WCR tailwind. Beyond an emerging inflexion point in French real estate transactions (that remains to be confirmed), we are still cautious about the

Ceconomy: discussing EUR4.6/share takeover with JD.com

With Ceconomy confirming it is in advanced negotiations with JD.com for a EUR4.6/share cash takeover, we have looked at the implied valuation vs. peers. The implied 8.5x EV/EBIT multiple logically places Ceconomy at the low-end of the range, reflecting its short-term low FCF generation, but could b

Fnac Darty: clarified FY guidance already priced in

Post-good Q2 publication, we have left our estimates unchanged with the updated FY EBIT guidance looking credible to us, but also already fully priced in by ourselves and the consensus. We remain on the sidelines with a Neutral rating with the stock being fairly valued at 11x EV/EBIT and a consiste

Fashion: navigating a cautious summer

Based on recent market trends, the start of Q3 appears to be a continuation of the softness observed in May and June for the fashion industry, as prolonged macroeconomic and tariff-related uncertainty continues to weigh on consumer spending. This environment has prompted a wait-and-see approach amo

Credit Morning 07/02/2025

Afflelou: the Afflelou family grows its stake but the company announced a double dividend recap|Sabadell sells TSB to Santander for £2.9 bn|

Morning Crédit 02/07/2025

Afflelou : la famille se renforce au capital mais le groupe réalise un double dividend recap|Sabadell cède TSB à Santander pour 2.9 mds GBP|

H&M: modest signs of improvement

While still showing a contraction YoY, Q2 margins improved sequentially versus Q1, lending more credibility to the company’s guidance for a positive inflexion point expected in H2 2025. However, H&M remains particularly sensitive to fluid external factors such as promotional activity, freight c

ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 06/25/2025

ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 25/06/2025

Zalando : Q2 due 6 August – Sales and EBIT to grow as planned

Fashion: No sign of spring in second quarter

As we feared in our February sector update, tariffs took a toll on US consumer sentiment, prompting shoppers to become more cautious on discretionary spending. European optimism ticked up marginally as did spending intentions, leading to soft market trends in May-June. In view of constrained pricin

Inditex: normalised, not neutralised (cancel & replace)

Whereas Q1 results broadly met expectations, current trading was again underwhelming, with sales from 1st May to 9th June up 6% FX-n (vs. CSSe c.+7%), reflecting volatile demand and a tough comp base. We have trimmed our FY25 estimates by 3% to account for the ongoing normalisation phase and a more

Fnac Darty: services, services and more services on the 2030 menu

Continuing on from its previous plan, Fnac Darty has presented a 2030 strategic plan skewed towards the development of subscription services and the catch-up of Unieuro. We welcome this focus on services in a saturated market where growth and profitability can no longer rely on devices, but expect

Suspension of Coverage

From 2nd of June we are suspending coverage of companies below due to a reallocation of resources. Our prior estimates should no longer be used as an indicator for the company moving forward.ADIDASBEIERSDORFCARREFOURDELIVERY HEROESSILORLUXOTTICAHELLOFRESHHermès InternationalHUGO BOSSINTERPARFUMSJUS

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #71

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how tariffs have dominated recent earnings calls over other topics such a

Maisons du Monde: no sign of commercial sequential improvement

Post-weak Q1 sales marked by no sequential improvement on easy comps and market share losses, we foresee a delayed recovery in France and cut our FY 2025 sales by 1% and our EBIT & FCF by >40%. Our new EUR2.4 PT reflects a slight return to growth only from 2026 onwards. Beyond management's s

Ceconomy: "growth businesses" continue to overshadow softening German ...

Post-Q2, we have cut our FY sales and EBIT by 1% and 2% to reflect a softening German environment while still believing in the company's ability to meet its FY 2024/25 and 2025/26 EBIT targets. We believe the back-end loaded contribution capacity of "growth businesses" is underestimated by the cons

Ceconomy: CFO appointed as interim CEO

With CEO Karsten Wildberger stepping down to become a federal minister in Germany, Ceconomy has appointed CFO Kai-Ulrich Deissner as interim CEO. In our view, this is the best option to ensure completion of a well-thought FY 2025/26 strategic plan (still not fully priced-in by the consensus and sha

Zalando: persistent deflationary concerns overshadow good Q1 and curre...

Post a good set of Q1 results with reassuring current trading comments, we have left our estimates unchanged with a EUR39 PT. Persistent risks concerning deflationary pressures in the European fashion sector in H2 continue to weigh on Zalando's ST rerating despite an appealing MT equity story based

Credit Morning 05/06/2025

Zalando: Q1 results above expectations and guidance confirmed|SoftBank Group : OpenAI abandons its plan to become a for-profit company|