On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #65

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the impacts of US tariffs and potential retaliation strategies by foreign

Sporting Goods: reciprocal tariffs, the last straw?

Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" plan announced on 2nd April now applies huge tariff rates to new countries like Vietnam and Indonesia, which are key in the sourcing of US footwear and apparel. Although apparel and footwear are already heavily taxed at an average of 14.6% and 12.3% respectively, compar

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #64

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at accelerating trends in European corporate earnings relative to those in t

ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 03/28/2025

ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 28/03/2025

Zalando : Setback offers attractive buying opportunity

We believe Zalando’s recent share price weakness (down c. 20%) is overdone. 1/ The company’s statement that Q1 started as Q4 ended implies that there is no slowdown of growth. 2/ Zalando has no exposure to the US, i.e. tariff uncertainty should hardly affect the company. We therefore reiterate our Outperform rating on Zalando with a TP of € 40. Q1 2025 should be a first catalyst and 2025 should be a good year with accelerating growth and further margin progress.

H&M: business model still fragile in an uncertain world

The mild reaction yesterday confirmed that investors had mixed feelings about the sharp 33% miss on Q1 EBIT and the scenario of gradual improvement throughout the year. Although management guided for a positive markdown impact in H2 2024, soft organic growth, rising inventory levels and volatile co

H&M: Soft Q1 sales momentum despite margin sacrifices

Arguably, with +2% FX-n in Q1 2025 H&M achieved two consecutive quarters of positive organic growth for the first time since Q4 2019-Q1 2020 (stripping out the atypical period of post Covid-related lockdowns until H1 2022), but it was fuelled by painful price reinvestments and marketing efforts

Maisons du Monde: another year of sales decline and restructuring in 2...

Post-FY 2024, we see 2025 as another year of declining sales and restructuring with management rightly focusing on FCF to preserve the company until the French furniture market recovers. We remain below MdM's >EUR100m cumulative FCF target as we remain more cautious regarding a market recovery i

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #62

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how Trump's trade war is negatively impacting US consumer sentiment. Happ

Inditex: navigating temporary sales growth hiccups

Whereas the slowdown in current trading was clearly more abrupt than expected, we believe this hiccup is temporary, as shown by the rebound in the first week of March to +7%. The latter is more consistent with our scenario of normalising sales trends towards 7% FX-n growth over the FY25-27 period,

Inditex: sound FY24 results but current trading has decelerated

For the fourth year in a row, Inditex achieved double-digit FX-n sales growth with +10.5% in FY24 with EBIT margin improving by 70bps to a new record level of 19.6%. FY24 total dividend amounted to EUR1.68 and matched expectations. Note that Inditex's current trading only increased by 4% FX-n, part

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #61

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how Trump's hectic trade policy impacts US consumer sentiment. Happy read

Zalando: on track to swallow About You and meet 2028 targets

Post-FY 2024 results, we have notched up our estimates and our PT to EUR39. The group is set to pause for breath in 2025 with H2 facing tough growth and profitability, but the consolidation of About You (not reflected in the consensus) around the summer should restore momentum while we continue to

Credit Morning 03/07/2025

Nexans: the company responds to the claims of a stoppage of GSI-related payments|ELO: rating downgraded to BB-/stable by S&P and publication of NIH annual report|

Morning Crédit 07/03/2025

Nexans: the company responds to the claims of a stoppage of GSI-related payments|ELO : dégradation du rating à BB-/stable par S&P et publication du rapport annuel de NIH|

Credit Morning 03/06/2025

Schaeffler Q4 24 call notes: a bit more clearance on cash restructuring phasing|Elis : good results in 2024 and launch of a first share buyback programme|AF-KLM: Good set of Q4 2024 amid solid unit revenues and lower fuel costs.|

Morning Crédit 06/03/2025

Schaeffler Q4 24 call notes: a bit more clearance on cash restructuring phasing|Elis : de bons résultats en 2024 et lancement d’un premier programme de rachat d’actions|AF-KLM: Good set of Q4 2024 amid solid unit revenues and lower fuel costs.|