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Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

CAF : The lag on the annual guidance in Q3 should be made up in Q4

>Q3 2024: revenue down 2% and an EBIT margin of 4.2% (-90bp) - During trading on Thursday, CAF published Q3 2024 results that came in below consensus forecasts. Order intake was down (a stronger decline than expected) to € 522 (book-to-bill of 0.62x). However, the group won close to € 700m in contracts after the end of the quarter (metro in Madrid and Amsterdam, trams in Bologna and Palermo), which should enable the group to post a decent Q4 performance and to ac...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

CAF : Le retard pris sur la guidance annuelle lors du T3 sera compensé...

>T3 2024 : recul du CA de 2% et marge d’EBIT de 4.2% (-90 pb) - CAF a publié jeudi, en journée, des résultats T3 2024 inférieurs aux attentes du consensus. Les commandes sont en baisse (plus forte qu’attendu), à 522 M€ (book-to-bill de 0.62x). Cependant, près de 700 M€ de contrats ont été remportés après la clôture du trimestre (métro à Madrid et Amsterdam, tramway à Bologne et Palerme), ce qui devrait permettre au groupe de publier un bon T4 et d’atteindre sa gu...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

ODDO : US elections: between continuity and disruption, the benefits/r...

Accounting for an average of 19% of revenues for European capital goods groups (over 40% in some cases), the US is clearly a central factor in growth strategies, both organically and inorganically. Based on our analysis of the programmes of the two candidates running for the White House and the positioning of the various groups, we have established two scenarios through which to play the sector depending on the winner in November's election. In this still uncertain US election co...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

ODDO : Election US : entre continuité et rupture, les bénéfices/risque...

Représentant 19% en moyenne du CA des groupes de biens d’équipement européens (plus de 40% pour certains), les Etats-Unis sont inévitablement au cœur des stratégies de croissance, tant organique qu’externe. Après analyse des programmes des deux candidats à la Maison Blanche, croisée avec celle du positionnement des groupes, nous avons établi 2 scénarios permettant de se positionner en fonction du candidat qui sera élu en novembre. Dans ce contexte électoral américain encore incer...

Nicolas David
  • Nicolas David

ODDO : Iberian Forum – Day 1

We host our 4th ODDO BHF Iberian Forum on the 1st and 2nd of October 2024 virtually. In total, 63 companies will be presenting. In the following note, we provide some initial feedback of the company on day 1. - >Acciona (=) : Confidence in Non-energy business steady, Acciona Energía stake sparks intense scrutiny - Acciona Energia (=/-) : A trajectory beyond 2024 to be explained at the 9 months results - Acerinox (=/-): Softness persists in Europe and US - Amadeus (=/+): sol...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

ODDO : Feedback Innotrans: demand is here to stay

>UNIFE sees 3% growth p.a. between 2022 and 2028 - As we did two years ago, we attended Innotrans in Berlin last week. The rail show brought together 2,940 exhibitors (more than 2022) and close to 140,000 visitors. At the event, UNIFE presented its growth forecasts with 3% expected per year between the period 2021-2023 and 2027-2029 (after 2.7% seen in 2021-2023). In practice, sector groups see stronger growth than the 3% anticipated by UNIFE.Insight...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

ODDO : Feedback Innotrans : la demande est là pour durer

>Unife prévoit 3% de croissance annuelle par an entre 2022 et 2028 - Comme il y a 2 ans, nous avons assisté la semaine dernière au Salon Innotrans à Berlin. Ce salon ferroviaire a rassemblé 2 940 exposants (> à 2022) et près de 140 000 visiteurs. Lors de ce salon, Unife a présenté ses prévisions de croissance avec 3% attendus par an entre les périodes 2021-2023 et 2027-2029 (après 2.7% réalisés sur la période 2021-2023). En pratique, les groupes du secteur prévoi...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

CAF : Un S1 légèrement supérieur aux attentes, confirmant l’améliorati...

>S1 2024 : CA en hausse de 11% et marge en hausse de 40 pb à 4.9% - CAF a publié hier après-midi (en marché) des résultats S1 2024 proches des attentes du consensus. Comme attendu, les commandes sont en baisse de 12% à 1 723 M€. Le book-to-bill est égal à 0.83x, du fait d’un faible T1. Le chiffre d’affaires atteint 2 080 M€ (css à 2 027 M€), en hausse de 11%. La division Railway affiche une croissance de 15% (dont 11% pour les services et 48% pour les systèmes). ...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

CAF : H1 slightly ahead of expectations, confirming the sequential imp...

>H1 2024: sales up 11% and margin up 40bp at 4.9% - CAF reported its H1 2024 results yesterday afternoon (during trading). They were close to consensus expectations. As expected, orders were down 12% at € 1,723m. The book-to-bill ratio was 0.83x, after a weak Q1. Sales rose by 11% to € 2,080m (consensus € 2,027m). The Railway division posted growth of 15% (11% for services and 48% for systems). In the Buses division (Solaris), sales fell by 3%, with fewer buses d...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

CAF : Q1 below forecasts, but guidance is confirmed and can be reached

>Q1 2024: sales up 6% and EBIT margin up 10bp to 4.7% - CAF reported its Q1 2024 results yesterday evening. Orders were down 42% to € 444m, bringing the book-to-bill ratio to well below 1x (0.44x). The backlog therefore declined to € 13.6bn. We think that this order level, although weak, does not pose a problem for the group as the pipeline is so well stocked. Moreover, CAF has announced contracts for a value of € 350m since the start of April. Sales reached € 1,...

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