reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels. With that said, we see potential for near-term downside as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and FANG+ (FNGS) (1) could not decisively break out to new highs, (2) display bearish false breakouts, (3) have fallen back into their 2+ month trading ranges, (4) are violating their 1+ month uptrends, and (5...
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
CFSL COCA-COLA FEMSA SAB DE CV (ADR)
JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON
BMY BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY
AKOB EMBOTELLADORA ANDINA S.A. SERIES B ADS
FMX FOMENTO ECONOMICO MEXICANO S.A.B. DE C.V. ADS
BMTA BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC ADS
PM PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL INC.
ABBV ABBVIE INC.
CCHGY COCA-COLA HBC AG
ABT ABBOTT LABORATORIES
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC ADS
GSK. GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC CEDEAR
IMBBY IMPERIAL BRANDS PLC
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Upgrading Consumer Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023. In late-July (7/30/24 Compass) we discussed expectations for a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and at this point it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from our selected 7/17/2...
VGR VECTOR GROUP LTD.
UHS UNIVERSAL HEALTH SERVICES INC. CLASS B
THC TENET HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
PSA PUBLIC STORAGE
MO ALTRIA GROUP INC
HCA HCA HEALTHCARE INC
CUBE CUBESMART
CYH COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC.
NSA NATIONAL STORAGE AFFILIATES TRUST
BMTA BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC ADS
TPB TURNING POINT BRANDS
PM PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL INC.
IMBBY IMPERIAL BRANDS PLC
- Philip Gorham
Morningstar | Investors Maul Imperial Over NGP Revenue Miss; Sentiment...
Investors reacted negatively to Imperial Brands' results for the first half of fiscal 2019, but we think the gap down is an overreaction and an indication of how the market is punishing every piece of bad news in the out-of-favor tobacco sector at present. Results were broadly in line with expectations, and we assume the market is concerned with the NGP revenue miss which implies that full year guidance of 1%-4% constant currency revenue growth is now unlikely to be attained at the high end of t...
- Philip Gorham
Investors Maul Imperial Over NGP Revenue Miss; Sentiment Low but Mater...
Investors reacted negatively to Imperial Brands' results for the first half of fiscal 2019, but we think the gap down is an overreaction and an indication of how the market is punishing every piece of bad news in the out-of-favor tobacco sector at present. Results were broadly in line with expectations, and we assume the market is concerned with the NGP revenue miss which implies that full year guidance of 1%-4% constant currency revenue growth is now unlikely to be attained at the high end of t...
- Philip Gorham
FDA Signals Anti-Initiation Strategy Will Be Sustained Under New Commi...
The FDA announced tighter measures against what it describes as "epidemic" levels of youth consumption of e-cigarettes, a move we think signals the FDA will continue to pursue anti-initiation policies despite the resignation of commissioner Scott Gottlieb. We are reiterating our fair value estimates for the tobacco manufacturers as the measures, while significant in terms of signalling the FDA’s stance, will not have much direct impact on tobacco manufacturers’ cash flows. The FDA’s propos...
- Philip Gorham
Morningstar | FDA Signals Anti-Initiation Strategy Will Be Sustained U...
The FDA announced tighter measures against what it describes as "epidemic" levels of youth consumption of e-cigarettes, a move we think signals the FDA will continue to pursue anti-initiation policies despite the resignation of commissioner Scott Gottlieb. We are reiterating our fair value estimates for the tobacco manufacturers as the measures, while significant in terms of signalling the FDA’s stance, will not have much direct impact on tobacco manufacturers’ cash flows. The FDA’s propo...
- Philip Gorham
Morningstar | Imperial Appears Oversold Despite Heightened Regulatory ...
Imperial Brands' market repeatable model has been the guiding hand behind its recent strategy, and we think the firm has executed well. Imperial's stated aim is high-quality market share growth through six pillars, which it describes as: simple market-focused portfolio, sustainable brand investments, always-on pricing strategy, core range everywhere all the time, tailor custom solutions, and honest accurate learning.In portfolio optimisation, the company has made great strides, reducing its tota...
- Philip Gorham
Imperial Appears Oversold Despite Heightened Regulatory Risk
We are encouraged by Imperial Brands' second half performance. The company pushed through very strong pricing in the second half, is accelerating next generation products, or NGP, sales, and again grew the dividend by 10% this year. Although we recently became slightly less bullish on margins for the tobacco group, we think Imperial's current market valuation undervalues its future cash flows and we are retaining our GBP 37 per share fair value estimate, and our wide moat rating. The big story o...
- Philip Gorham
Morningstar | IMBBY Updated Forecasts and Estimates from 07 Nov 2018
We are encouraged by Imperial Brands' second half performance. The company pushed through very strong pricing in the second half, is accelerating next generation products, or NGP, sales, and again grew the dividend by 10% this year. Although we recently became slightly less bullish on margins for the tobacco group, we think Imperial's current market valuation undervalues its future cash flows and we are retaining our GBP 37 per share fair value estimate, and our wide moat rating. The big story ...
- Philip Gorham
Morningstar | Imperial's 2H Pricing and NGP Growth Shows Why the Stock...
We are encouraged by Imperial Brands' second half performance. The company pushed through very strong pricing in the second half, is accelerating next generation products, or NGP, sales, and again grew the dividend by 10% this year. Although we recently became slightly less bullish on margins for the tobacco group, we think Imperial's current market valuation undervalues its future cash flows and we are retaining our GBP 37 per share fair value estimate, and our wide moat rating. The big story ...
- Philip Gorham
Imperial's 2H Pricing and NGP Growth Shows Why the Stock Is Undervalue...
We are encouraged by Imperial Brands' second half performance. The company pushed through very strong pricing in the second half, is accelerating next generation products, or NGP, sales, and again grew the dividend by 10% this year. Although we recently became slightly less bullish on margins for the tobacco group, we think Imperial's current market valuation undervalues its future cash flows and we are retaining our GBP 37 per share fair value estimate, and our wide moat rating. The big story o...
- Philip Gorham
Morningstar | Moving Tobacco Trend Ratings to Negative, but Market Is ...
We have lowered our moat trend for British American Tobacco, Imperial Brands, and Philip Morris International to negative from stable because we suspect that recent evidence regarding the economics of next-generation products may signal a deterioration in Big Tobacco’s cost advantage in the long term, and because cigarette brand equity appears to be less transferable to next generation products, or NGPs, than we had initially thought. However, although we have become incrementally more concern...
- Philip Gorham
Moving Tobacco Trend Ratings to Negative, but Market Is Too Pessimisti...
We have lowered our moat trend for British American Tobacco, Imperial Brands, and Philip Morris International to negative from stable because we suspect that recent evidence regarding the economics of next-generation products may signal a deterioration in Big Tobacco’s cost advantage in the long term, and because cigarette brand equity appears to be less transferable to next generation products, or NGPs, than we had initially thought. However, although we have become incrementally more concern...
- Philip Gorham
Morningstar | Imperial grossly undervalued as market overlooks strengt...
Imperial Brands' market repeatable model has been the guiding hand behind its recent strategy, and we think the firm has executed well. Imperial's stated aim is high-quality market share growth through six pillars, which it describes as: simple market-focused portfolio, sustainable brand investments, always-on pricing strategy, core range everywhere all the time, tailor custom solutions, and honest accurate learning.In portfolio optimisation, the company has made great strides, reducing its tota...
- Philip Gorham
Imperial grossly undervalued as market overlooks strength of core busi...
We are lowering our fair value estimates for three of our global large-cap tobacco manufacturers, after taking a less optimistic view of medium-term margins. Nevertheless, we still believe upside exists to the stocks, particularly Imperial Brands and Philip Morris International, and we think the group is heavily out of favor after heated tobacco sales suddenly plateaued in Japan in the first quarter of this year. The catalyst, however, may not come until early next year when PMI commercializes i...
- Philip Gorham
Morningstar | Slightly Lowering Valuation in Tobacco, but We See Upsid...
We are lowering our fair value estimates for three of our global large-cap tobacco manufacturers, after taking a less optimistic view of medium-term margins. Nevertheless, we still believe upside exists to the stocks, particularly Imperial Brands and Philip Morris International, and we think the group is heavily out of favor after heated tobacco sales suddenly plateaued in Japan in the first quarter of this year. The catalyst, however, may not come until early next year when PMI commercializes i...
- Philip Gorham
Morningstar | Slightly Lowering Valuation in Tobacco, but We See Upsid...
We are lowering our fair value estimates for three of our global large-cap tobacco manufacturers, after taking a less optimistic view of medium-term margins. Nevertheless, we still believe upside exists to the stocks, particularly Imperial Brands and Philip Morris International, and we think the group is heavily out of favor after heated tobacco sales suddenly plateaued in Japan in the first quarter of this year. The catalyst, however, may not come until early next year when PMI commercializes i...
- Philip Gorham
Slightly Lowering Valuation in Tobacco, but We See Upside to the Group...
We are lowering our fair value estimates for three of our global large-cap tobacco manufacturers, after taking a less optimistic view of medium-term margins. Nevertheless, we still believe upside exists to the stocks, particularly Imperial Brands and Philip Morris International, and we think the group is heavily out of favor after heated tobacco sales suddenly plateaued in Japan in the first quarter of this year. The catalyst, however, may not come until early next year when PMI commercializes i...
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