reports
- Mattias Holmberg
Atlas Copco (Buy, TP: SEK170.00) - Solid story lacking execution
The Q1 report was a bit soft, with orders in line, adj. EBIT 5% below consensus and a reduction of the outlook, now expecting weaker customer activity near-term. VT not missing consensus orders and margins was a relief, and a restructuring of the division is underway, with full margin recovery expected by 2026. Having trimmed our organic growth and adj. EBIT margin assumptions, we have lowered our 2025–2027e adj. EBIT by c3% on average. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to ...
- Mattias Holmberg
Atlas Copco (Buy, TP: SEK180.00) - Shelter from the storm in Vacuum
We are 2% below consensus on Q1e orders, sales and adj. EBIT, and expect a near-term demand guidance for unchanged or slightly weaker customer activity. We forecast improved sentiment for Vacuum Technique through 2025, and see strong long-term growth prospects. Due to FX, we have reduced our 2025–2027e orders and sales by 7% on average and adj. EBIT by 8% on average. We have thus cut our target price to SEK180 (205), but reiterate our BUY.
- Mattias Holmberg
Set for spicy growth
Our recent field trip to India (visiting Volvo, Epiroc, Trelleborg, Autoliv and others) alongside our analysis suggests the country is set to take centre stage as a global manufacturing hub over the coming decade, shifting from being the sixth- to the third-largest end-market for the Swedish Industrial sector. India’s strong economic growth trajectory and favourable demographics mean the companies: 1) see double-digit growth as sustainable; 2) are pursuing manufacturing capacity expansions; and ...
ABB ABB LTD.
ELUX B ELECTROLUX AB CLASS B
SAND SANDVIK AB
HUSQ B HUSQVARNA AB CLASS B
ALV AUTOLIV INC.
TREL B TRELLEBORG AB CLASS B
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
DOM DOMETIC GROUP AB
LIAB LINDAB INTERNATIONAL AB
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
HPOL B HEXPOL AB CLASS B
ALIG ALIMAK GROUP AB
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB CLASS A
EPRO B ELECTROLUX PROFESSIONAL
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
SYSR SYSTEMAIR AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
VOLCARb VOLVO CARS
BEIJ B BEIJER REF AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
- Mattias Holmberg
Who stands to benefit?
A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...
UPM UPM-KYMMENE OYJ
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
ELUX B ELECTROLUX AB CLASS B
SAND SANDVIK AB
STERV STORA ENSO OYJ CLASS R
FLS FLSMIDTH & CO. A/S
KEMIRA KEMIRA OYJ
ROCK B ROCKWOOL INTERNATIONAL A/S CLASS B
METSB METSA BOARD OYJ CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
BILL BILLERUDKORSNAS AB
KCR KONECRANES OYJ
LIAB LINDAB INTERNATIONAL AB
ALIG ALIMAK GROUP AB
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB CLASS A
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
SYSR SYSTEMAIR AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
BEIJ B BEIJER REF AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
KALMAR KALMAR
- Mattias Holmberg
Atlas Copco (Buy, TP: SEK205.00) - VT recovery nowhere to be seen
The expected recovery in Vacuum Technique (VT) orders did not materialise, and investors’ negative view of the report was exacerbated by weak underlying profitability for the division (adjusting for an FX boost). Beyond VT, the report was ‘good enough’ in our view, but we have trimmed our 2025–2026e adj. EBIT by c2%. Although Q4 did not provide the confirmation we were hoping for, we still expect 2025 to be a solid year for VT, with demand set to recover. We reiterate our BUY and SEK205 target p...
- Mattias Holmberg
Atlas Copco (Buy, TP: SEK205.00) - Harness the vacuum
We have upgraded Atlas Copco to BUY (HOLD), as we believe current semiconductor market uncertainties are well reflected in the stock price and that demand will return throughout 2025e. Although not inexpensive, the valuation looks reasonable to us at a 2025e EV/EBIT of c20x, as we expect improved end-market sentiment in the coming year and see strong long-term growth prospects. We have raised our 2025–2026e adj. EBIT by 5% on average (mainly due to FX), and thus have raised our target price to S...
- Mattias Holmberg
Atlas Copco (Hold, TP: SEK195.00) - A narrow path ahead
The Q3 report was on the soft side, with adj. EBIT 4% below consensus, and the near-term guidance for somewhat weakening customer activity as well as a more uncertain outlook due to global macroeconomics. We have lowered our 2024e adj. EBIT by 2% (2025–2026e are largely unchanged) and continue to find the valuation as fair at a 2025e EV/EBIT of 22x, and reiterate our HOLD and SEK195 target price.
- Mattias Holmberg
Atlas Copco (Hold, TP: SEK195.00) - Marginally reduced estimates
We are 2% below consensus on Q3e orders, but 1–2% above on sales and adj. EBIT, and expect the company to guide for stable or somewhat lower demand in Q4. We have reduced our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 3% on average, mainly due to FX and cut organic growth in Compressor Technique on lower energy prices. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to SEK195 (200).
- Mattias Holmberg
Atlas Copco (Hold, TP: SEK200.00) - Not enough for the darling
Atlas Copco’s Q2 report was not as bad as the share price reaction would indicate, but left us with an underwhelming view about near-term margin progression, as management does not seem confident in a near-term offset of negative mix or leverage. We have lowered our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 2–0% and our target price to SEK200 (205) but reiterate our HOLD.
- Mattias Holmberg
Atlas Copco (Hold, TP: SEK205.00) - Expectations ahead of Q2
We are 2% above consensus on Q2e orders and sales, and 3% on adj. EBIT. We expect the guidance to be unchanged demand into Q3, and still no improvement in demand from the semiconductor industry, which could become visible in H2e or 2025e. We have reduced our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 4% on average, mainly on FX. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK205 (195) on valuation, reflecting a 2-year forward EV/EBIT of 22.0x.
- Mattias Holmberg
Atlas Copco (Hold, TP: SEK195.00) - In one word: Strong
Atlas Copco’s Q1 report impressed with a solid order beat and guidance that implies our estimates and consensus for orders are too low for the rest of 2024e. We view the comments on the semiconductor industry as cautiously optimistic. We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 5–7% and our target price to SEK195 (185), but reiterate our HOLD as the valuation looks full in our view at a 2024e EV/EBIT of 22.5x.
- Mattias Holmberg
Atlas Copco (Hold, TP: SEK185.00) - Still waiting for semis
We are 2% above consensus on Q1 orders, 1% above on sales and in line on adjusted EBIT. We expect the guidance to be for unchanged demand into Q2 and for comments that management has not yet seen any improvement in demand from the semiconductor industry. Although our deviation versus consensus for Q1 is negligible on the group level, we find the margin assumptions for VT somewhat optimistic. We have raised our adjusted EBIT by 4% on average for 2024–2026e. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised o...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Completion of the combination between Novozymes and Chr. Hansen
Completion of the combination between Novozymes and Chr. Hansen January 29, 2024 – Company announcement no. 2 Please see attachment. CONTACT INFORMATION Investor Relations Tobias Cornelius Bjorklund Anders Enevoldsen Press Relations Lina Danstrup Attachment
All necessary regulatory approvals have been obtained for the combinat...
All necessary regulatory approvals have been obtained for the combination of Novozymes and Chr. Hansen January 26, 2024 – Company announcement no. 1 Please see attachment. Contact information Investor RelationsDisa Tuominen Press RelationsSanne Seyer-Hansen Attachment
- Mattias Holmberg
Atlas Copco (Hold, TP: SEK175.00) - Sentiment dented
Weak Q4 order intake, the downside risk that the guidance implies to consensus Q1e orders, and management’s comments that there is still no demand recovery in sight near-term from semiconductor customers are hurting sentiment towards the stock. We have raised our 2024–2025e adj. EBIT by c2%, as we expect backlog support and solid margin progression, but believe the full valuation (2024e EV/EBIT of 20.8x) caps the upside potential. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK175 ...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Chr. Hansen (Hold, TP: DKK582.00) - Down to HOLD, target price raised
We forecast Chr. Hansen to reach the high end of its 2023 guidance of 10–12% organic revenue growth and a 26–27% EBIT margin, but expect the combined entity (Novonesis) to issue a new guidance upon completion of the merger. As Chr. Hansen shareholders are set to receive 1.5236 new B-shares in Novonesis, the changes in our Novozymes model translate into a raised Chr. Hansen target price of DKK582 (536), and we have thus downgraded to HOLD (BUY).
Update on the merger approval process for the combination of Novozymes...
Update on the merger approval process for the combination of Novozymes and Chr. Hansen: South Korean merger approval granted December 20, 2023 Please see attachment. Contact information Investor RelationsDisa Tuominen Press RelationsSanne Seyer-Hansen Attachment
Major shareholder announcement from Burlington Loan Management DAC
Major shareholder announcement from Burlington Loan Management DAC December 19, 2023 – Company announcement no. 12 Please see attachment. Contact information Investor RelationsDisa Tuominen Press RelationsSanne Seyer-Hansen About Chr. Hansen Chr. Hansen is a global, differentiated bioscience company that develops natural ingredient solutions for the food, nutritional, pharmaceutical and agricultural industries. At Chr. Hansen, we are strongly positioned to drive positive change through microbial solutions. We have worked for over 145 years to enable s...
Update on the merger approval process for the combination of Novozymes...
Update on the merger approval process for the combination of Novozymes and Chr. Hansen: Conditional competition clearance from the European Commission obtained December 12, 2023 Please see attachment. Contact information Investor RelationsDisa Tuominen Press RelationsSanne Seyer-Hansen Attachment
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