The Capital Goods Data Miner – November 2024

After capital spree, SMM still a drag

Q3 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

Western Bulk Chartering (Buy, TP: NOK25.00) - Encouraging signs needed

Q3 marked the company’s seventh consecutive quarter with no dividends, and reflected soft recent performance given its policy of paying out 80% of net profits. However, our reduced normalised TC margin implies a 2025 dividend yield of ~16%, with upside potential to margins converging towards 2020–2022 levels. Also, the share price has fallen ~20% since the Q3 update, removing much of the downside risk, in our view. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK25 (32).

Sandvik AB: 1 director

A director at Sandvik AB bought 1,000,000 shares at 212.986SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 28/10/2024

Les députés ont supprimé vendredi dernier la surtaxe d’Impôt sur les Sociétés proposée par le gouvernement français dans son PLF 2025. Il serait, selon nous, hasardeux de crier victoire trop tôt, et cette disposition pourrait faire son retour durant la suite du débat budgétaire, sous la forme initialement proposée par le gouvernement ou sous une autre. Nous restons prudents sur les actions françaises, le débat budgétaire restant chaotique et pas à la hauteur des enjeux, comme le souli...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/28/2024

Last Friday, MEPs scrapped the exceptional additional corporate tax proposed by the French government in its PLF 2025. In our view, it would be risky to claim victory prematurely, and this provision could make a comeback during the remainder of the budget debate, in the form initially proposed by the government or in another form. We remain cautious on French equities, as the budget debate remains chaotic and fails to live up to the stakes, as underlined by Moody's downgrade of the so...

Epiroc : Sequential margin improvement but it should remain durably be...

>Q3 2024: growth in orders and revenues (organic) but contraction in the margin - Epiroc reported Q3 2024 results on the morning of Friday, 25 October that exceeded expectations in terms of orders and (organic) revenues, but a shade below for adjusted EBIT (3%). As was the case for Sandvik and Metso during the week, order intake was buoyant, with organic growth of 6% (consensus at 4.2%), including a 9% rise for E&S (11% for the equipment segment, with a record qu...

Epiroc : Une marge en amélioration séquentielle mais qui devrait reste...

>T3 2024 : commandes et CA en croissance (organique) mais marge en recul - Epiroc a publié vendredi matin ses résultats T3 2024, qui étaient supérieurs aux attentes sur les commandes et le CA (organique), mais légèrement en dessous en ce qui concerne l'EBIT ajusté (3%). Comme pour Sandvik et Metso cette semaine, les prises de commandes étaient bien orientées avec une croissance organique de 6% (css à 4.2 %), dont une hausse de 9% pour E&S (11% pour la partie équi...

Epiroc (Hold, TP: SEK215.00) - Margins still not meeting forecast

The Q3 report was in line overall, with orders and sales exactly in line with and adj. EBIT -1% versus consensus; however, the underlying margin again fell shy (50–60bp below in both divisions but only 20bp below consensus on group, as corporate costs were lower than expected). Epiroc guided for near-term demand to remain high in mining and remain weak in construction. We have made minor changes to our estimates and reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK215 (205).

Undramatic Q3, premium limits upside

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/25/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/10/2024

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Epiroc : Mixed Q3 results with good order level but margin below expec...

>Q3 2024: strong orders (+6%) but margin still below consensus (19.7% vs 20%) - Epiroc reported this morning, its Q3 2024 results which slightly beat expectations on order intake but fell some way short on adjusted EBIT (3%).Order intake came in 6% higher in organic terms (consensus at 4.2%), underpinned by large orders (SEK 1,400m vs SEK 1,000m in Q3 2023) with E&S up 9% (including +11% for Equipment only) and T&A flat (supported by the demand for ground engagin...

Epiroc : Mixed Q3 results with good order level but margin below expec...

>Q3 2024: strong orders (+6%) but margin still below consensus (19.7% vs 20%) - Epiroc reported this morning, its Q3 2024 results which slightly beat expectations on order intake but fell some way short on adjusted EBIT (3%).Order intake came in 6% higher in organic terms (consensus at 4.2%), underpinned by large orders (SEK 1,400m vs SEK 1,000m in Q3 2023) with E&S up 9% (including +11% for Equipment only) and T&A flat (supported by the demand for ground engagin...

Close to expectations

Atlas Copco (Hold, TP: SEK195.00) - A narrow path ahead

The Q3 report was on the soft side, with adj. EBIT 4% below consensus, and the near-term guidance for somewhat weakening customer activity as well as a more uncertain outlook due to global macroeconomics. We have lowered our 2024e adj. EBIT by 2% (2025–2026e are largely unchanged) and continue to find the valuation as fair at a 2025e EV/EBIT of 22x, and reiterate our HOLD and SEK195 target price.

Heads-up for report 25 October

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/22/2024

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