Q1 was OK but that's ancient history now

Two-speed Sandvik

Relatively protected spot

Stolt-Nielsen (Buy, TP: NOK470.00) - Don’t stop believin’

While lower chemical volumes weighed on Stolt-Nielsen’s earnings and Q2 guidance, we see a positive trend in the early innings, with chemical volumes up 10% MOM in March and accelerated unwinding of OPEC+ cuts, to potentially re-ignite more positive tanker sentiment. We find the stock attractive at a 2025–2026e average P/E of 3.8x (tanker peers: 5.1x). We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK470 (480).

Small Q1 miss, partly countered by share buybacks

Sandvik (Hold, TP: SEK210.00) - Estimates cut due to FX

We are 3% below post-Q4 consensus on Q1e orders and adj. EBITA. We expect comments on demand to remain solid for Mining and soft for Infrastructure. Early trading remarks for daily order intake in SMM for the first few weeks of Q2 are likely to indicate a stable QOQ trend, but that overall short-cycle demand comments could be subdued given the uncertain macroeconomic picture. Having lowered our 2025–2027e adj. EBITA by 9% on average (mainly due to FX), we reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our tar...

Epiroc (Hold, TP: SEK220.00) - No earnings growth in 2025e

We have downgraded Epiroc to HOLD (BUY). We still believe in stronger end markets for the Tools & Attachment division in H2, and for gradual underlying earnings improvement, but lack confidence it will improve stock sentiment in a macro-focused environment. We expect no earnings growth YOY in 2025e, after lowering our 2025–2027e adj. EBIT by c9% on average (mainly due to FX) and are now c10% below post-Q4 consensus. We have lowered our target price to SEK220 (240).

Atlas Copco (Buy, TP: SEK180.00) - Shelter from the storm in Vacuum

We are 2% below consensus on Q1e orders, sales and adj. EBIT, and expect a near-term demand guidance for unchanged or slightly weaker customer activity. We forecast improved sentiment for Vacuum Technique through 2025, and see strong long-term growth prospects. Due to FX, we have reduced our 2025–2027e orders and sales by 7% on average and adj. EBIT by 8% on average. We have thus cut our target price to SEK180 (205), but reiterate our BUY.

Chemical tanker spot rates are rebounding

Stolt-Nielsen (Buy, TP: NOK480.00) - Attractive Tankers-driven cocktai...

Tanker rates are healthy, and the outlook is solid on a record-high tanker fleet age and limited 2025e deliveries. We believe Stolt-Nielsen screens as attractive, trading at an average 2025–2026e adj. P/E of 4.3x (tanker peers 5.5x), despite other segments with more stable revenues accounting for c40% of our 2026e EBIT, which should allow for a premium, in our view. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK480 (540).

Germany: Investing its way back to growth

The Capital Goods Data Miner - March 2025 (republished)

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

Set for spicy growth

Our recent field trip to India (visiting Volvo, Epiroc, Trelleborg, Autoliv and others) alongside our analysis suggests the country is set to take centre stage as a global manufacturing hub over the coming decade, shifting from being the sixth- to the third-largest end-market for the Swedish Industrial sector. India’s strong economic growth trajectory and favourable demographics mean the companies: 1) see double-digit growth as sustainable; 2) are pursuing manufacturing capacity expansions; and ...

The hard rock bustle

Our review of 12 major miners’ guidance suggests 6% YOY capex growth in 2025, with growth project capex up 23%. Copper remains a key investment priority, accounting for c35% of miners’ capex, driven by global megatrends and supply constraints. This is particularly supportive for our BUY names: Metso (32% copper exposure), Epiroc (28%), and FLSmidth (21%), while Sandvik (HOLD) also stands to benefit, although its large metal-cutting tools business reduces its direct copper exposure to 12%.