Momentum Group AB: 1 director

A director at Momentum Group AB bought 1,344 shares at 175.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cle...

Transactions, CMD and halted DPS

This week Balder, Citycon and SBB announced divestments, Public Property Invest was assigned an IG rating by Fitch, and Corem hosted its CMD. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.45% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2025e.

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - 2030 targets in focus

We are positive ahead of the CMD, scheduled to begin at 09:00 CET on 26 November, expecting AAK to raise its 2030 EBIT/kg target to >SEK3/kg and reiterate its ambition to outgrow the market in volumes and >10% EBIT growth p.a. We find consensus 2025–2026e EBIT low, at c3–5%, and believe clarity on structural margin improvements would be positive. We also expect focus on capital allocation, with AAK set to be net cash positive in early 2025e. We reiterate our BUY and SEK360 target price.

Contract coverage turns MTM positive

Flex LNG (Buy, TP: NOK335.00) - 13% yield highly appealing

Flex LNG remains insulated in a challenging freight market, with only one vessel open into a potentially poor 2025, while the two positions for 2026 are still likely to see options extended into 2028. Lower rates have led to our minor near-term adjustments, but we see no reason to doubt its USD0.75 quarterly DPS, offering an attractive 13% dividend yield into better markets. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK335 (345).

Q3 as guided, Q4 guided as expected

EBITDA of USD 70m (ABGSC and cons at 70m). Q4'24 guidance in line with expectations. Share to trade flat to slightly down vs peers.

Mixed Q3s and soft datapoint for Stockholm office market

This week, Hufvudstaden, Veidekke, Selvaag Bolig and Skanska reported Q3 results. Furthermore, Vasakronan (unlisted) reported soft vacancies and net lettings, which we consider a negative datapoint for peers such as Fabege and Hufuvdstaden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.33% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.

Two upgrades, an equity raise, and transactions

This week, we upgraded Balder to BUY and Sagax to HOLD following their Q3 results, Balder completed a SEK1.5bn equity raise and bought assets from a JV, while a >5% rent increase for 2025 provided a positive datapoint for rent-regulated apartments in Sweden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.31% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.

Carasent (Buy, TP: NOK27.00) - Strategic initiatives bearing fruit

Carasent reported accelerated growth (17% YOY in organic recurring revenues) and improved profitability in Q3, suggesting that its strategic initiatives have started to materialise, further substantiated by the milestone acquisition of Data-Al. While we have raised our 2025–2026e EBITDAC by 12%, we still see upside potential from further growth and cost synergies. Thus, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK27 (25).

Market outlook weakens further

6% FCF yield while waiting for a recovery

Q3: Softer than expected on nearly all line items

Balder (Buy, TP: SEK92.00) - Up to BUY on strong 2025e growth

We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) on: 1) 2025e FFOPS growth of 17%; 2) positive trends in SATO with improved vacancies for the past two quarters; and 3) our view of Balder as a sector relative outperformer on the strong credit market and limited exposure to the office segment. We have increased our 2025–2026e FFOPS by 5%, on a 3% Q3 EBIT beat and greater interest rate hedging. We have raised our target price to SEK92 (83), based on a 2025–2026e P/FFO of 16–15x (peers 16.3–15.6x).

Q3 and rental KPIs in focus

This week, reporting season was in full swing, with nine covered companies reporting Q3 results. Overall, the results were mixed, while net lettings and vacancy rates were main points of interest given the current weak rental markets. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.32% for 2024e and 4.78% for 2025e.

Alligo (Buy, TP: SEK175.00) - Tough (and “frustrating”) Q3

Weak Q3 results showed the Alligo business model is far from immune to weak markets, prompting us to cut our 2024–2026e EPS by 20–3%. However, we believe Alligo is well positioned for profitable growth when demand recovers. We see an industrial roll-up case evolving, with recent acquisitions at attractive valuations, and find its >10% EBITA margin target ambitious but achievable by 2026, as demand recovers. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK175 (180).

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - Strong prices lead to good profits

Q3 marked yet another strong quarter for AAK, with EBIT/kg above its 2030 ambition for the fifth quarter in a row along with continue strong volumes growth, especially for its CCF business, driven by cocoa butter alternatives. With cocoa prices still at record highs, we expect AAK to still benefit from this going into 2025. We reiterate our BUY and SEK360 target price.

Another jump in CCF EBIT/kg

Volume growth all over, but approaching tougher comps

AAK divests North American foodservice

Elisa Oyj: 1 director

A director at Elisa Oyj sold 20,000 shares at 46.440EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 86/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showi...