Alligo (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - Plan Z in implementation

Q1 was tough, with still-weak market demand partly offset by still-strong gross margins and the contribution from recent acquisitions. We still see Alligo as a strong name on Nordic demand recovery, but the international turmoil has led us to delay the profitable growth scenario and an 8–10% cut to our 2025–2027e EPS. We see an industrial roll-up case and believe Alligo is well positioned for profitable growth as demand recovers. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK160 (175)...

Signs of sector recovery, and more Q1 results

The markets were much quieter following the Easter break, with limited news; however, the names we cover saw their shares up 2.6% on average, with Atrium Ljungberg (7.1%), SBB (7.1%) and Pandox (4.8%) the top performers. JM released its Q1 results and we reiterated our BUY, believing it has passed the earnings trough, while we reiterated our HOLDs on Corem and Fabege following their quarterly reports. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.04% for 2025e and 5.34%...

Mix took another leap

Elisa Oyj: 1 director

A director at Elisa Oyj sold 10,000 shares at 45.730EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 66/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showi...

Solid EBIT in soft end-markets

Efficient delivery

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR47.00) - Slightly soft revenue trends

The Q1 report was on the weak side, with slower Mobile Service revenue growth and limited International Software Services growth. We have made small negative revisions to our 2025–2026e revenues and reiterate our HOLD and EUR47 target price.

Small Q1 EBITDA beat, churn down slightly q-o-q

Flex LNG (Buy, TP: NOK320.00) - Set to hold course on 14% DPS yield

With ~90% of days fixed for 2025 and 2026, and a cash balance of 11x its ‘regular’ quarterly dividend, Flex LNG’s USD0.75 DPS looks insulated from market storm, offering a compelling 14% yield. Additionally, we expect freight markets to recover from 2026, with current newbuild prices implying a long-term TC contract of cUSD90k/day to justify the investment, in our opinion supporting a firm long-term rate outlook. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK320 (340).

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR47.00) - Looking for churn stabilisation

We forecast a fairly solid Q1 (results due at 07:30 CET on 17 April), with stabilised churn from the elevated levels in Q4. We expect a slight slowdown of YOY MSR growth versus Q4 and solid 10% organic growth for the international software business. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to EUR47 (45).

Q1 reporting begins, volatility persists, CEO to leave and ‘special ex...

The ‘tariff volatility’ in credit and equity markets persisted this week, reversing many of the gains from previous weeks. Atrium Ljungberg kicked off Q1 reporting season. Öresund’s representative left the board of Stenhus and appointed a special examiner to review the company’s management. Castellum’s CEO Joacim Sjöberg stated he plans to leave by Q4 2026. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.33% for 2025e and 5.66% for 2026e.

Sector recovery on tariff introduction

While still down YTD, the Nordic real estate sector did see a recovery this week on falling interest rates as a result of US tariffs being imposed. Furthermore, we upgraded JM to BUY (HOLD) and published several Q1 previews in the construction sector. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.06% for 2025e and 5.37% for 2026e.

Improving cash flows, but still pricey

More to give

ABGSC Shipping Daily 31 March

Volume signals mixed, EBIT/kg story intact

Everything is connected

Geopolitical uncertainty has affected market interest rates and thus the Nordic real estate sector – and we see no near-term fix. The yield gap (risk premium) has remained broadly unchanged in the recent market volatility, meaning interest rates changes explain most of the YTD share price performance – a correlation we expected will continue. The local office rental market remains soft, and we expect the logistics market to follow suit. However, given the deleveraging efforts in recent years and...

Fastighets AB Balder: 1 director

A director at Fastighets AB Balder bought 7,000 shares at 66.190SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...

A tenant bankruptcy, a lost rating, more newbuilds and new issues

This week, Castellum lost its seventh-largest tenant after Northvolt declared bankruptcy, Citycon’s IG rating was withdrawn, construction companies continue to start newbuilds (NCC in Finland), Corem announced a lease extension, and Kojamo and Sagax issued new bonds. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.17–5.49% for 2025–2026e.