Plenty of news flow ahead

2 July: First day of trading including PGS. 8 July: Q2 revenues update – we see good risk/reward. Attractive valuation for combined entity: BUY, TP NOK 180.

Crude Quarterly Q2'24: tighter oil market ahead

Oil inventory draws for the rest of 2024. IEA is wrong – peak demand is not imminent. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1200.00) - Co-morbidities in focus at ADA

Focus at the 2024 American Diabetes Association (ADA) conference on 21–24 June was on the health benefits of treating obesity and the positive impact on comorbidities. Based on our observations, we expect broad-based penetration of GLP-1 drugs in the US, with prescribers ranging from cardiologists to pulmonologists. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK1,200 (1,100), mainly on higher forecast GLP-1 sales.

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK127.00) - Set for continued growth in AUM

We forecast Q2 PTP before amortisation of NOK2,163m on strong AUM growth, and a NOK1.1bn gain on the sale of Storebrand Helseforsikring (results due at 07:30 CET on 12 July). The higher AUM base due to Asset Management and Unit Linked reserves should raise Savings’ PTP, while the ongoing repricing supports growth in Insurance. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK127 (125), finding the stock attractively valued at a 2025e P/E of ~9x, adjusted for the expected capital relea...

Delivering the goods

Q2e: Adj. results bef. amort. of NOK 1.18bn and solvency ~190%. Ests. up on AUM (fees & perf.) and faster insurance profits (repricing). High earnings growth & capital repatriation; BUY, TP NOK 136 (135).

Private markets seen cooling down

Renewable energy stocks have benefitted from higher private market valuations, despite elevated interest rates and lower power price expectations hitting project economics. We believe this is due to the tight supply/demand balance, underpinned by record-high infrastructure funds available for investment. As the private capital surplus diminishes with lower fundraising and more transactions, we see a risk of the sector valuation reverting. Among the names we cover, Scatec had the highest valuatio...

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK335.00) - FCF focus on cocoa madness

We expect AAK to continue to benefit from the surge in cocoa prices as it prompts its customers to shift product formulations and potentially changes its sales mix towards products with less cocoa (typically higher-margin for AAK). We reiterate our BUY but have raised our target price to SEK335 (295), reflecting current FCF.

TGS ASA: 1 director

A director at TGS ASA bought 8,750 shares at 121.706NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showi...

No surprises in our pre-summer lunch

Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director

A director at Novo Nordisk AS sold 9,000 shares at 915.500DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

Trump vows to stop offshore wind development with executive order on d...

Over the weekend, former US president Donald Trump said he would issue an executive order targeting offshore wind on his first day as president if elected. A president can issue an executive order directing a study of the impact while halting permitting of new projects. While this could negatively affect US permitting and thus the growth of offshore wind in the country, all other elements for the wind farms are determined on a state level. Hence, permitted wind farms would likely see a limited e...

Positive read-across from OX2 offer

This morning, renewable energy project developer OX2 announced it has received an offer from infrastructure fund EQT at a 43.4% premium to Friday’s close. We view this as further evidence of a greater willingness to pay for renewables in the private markets than the public ones, and thus believe the bid offers a positive read-across for renewable energy companies with strong development capabilities in the Nordics/Northern Europe, such as Cloudberry and Bonheur. We also believe it could be posit...

Merger with PGS just around the corner

Only marginal changes after Q1. We are confident that the outlook is bright. Attractive valuation for combined entity: BUY, TP NOK of 180 (unch).

TGS (Hold, TP: NOK125.00) - Few reasons to engage near-term

Given a more muted near-term outlook, we expect cuts to consensus for the Acquisition business, but also soft utilisation of the soon-to-be-acquired PGS vessels in Q2, leaving investors few reasons to buy the stock near-term. We therefore reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to NOK125 (130) on our lower 2024–2026e proprietary revenue estimates.

TGS+PGS marginal beat