Transactions, CMD and halted DPS

This week Balder, Citycon and SBB announced divestments, Public Property Invest was assigned an IG rating by Fitch, and Corem hosted its CMD. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.45% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2025e.

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - 2030 targets in focus

We are positive ahead of the CMD, scheduled to begin at 09:00 CET on 26 November, expecting AAK to raise its 2030 EBIT/kg target to >SEK3/kg and reiterate its ambition to outgrow the market in volumes and >10% EBIT growth p.a. We find consensus 2025–2026e EBIT low, at c3–5%, and believe clarity on structural margin improvements would be positive. We also expect focus on capital allocation, with AAK set to be net cash positive in early 2025e. We reiterate our BUY and SEK360 target price.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Nordic shorts: Embracer and Nibe highlighted

Shorts update

Billerud AB: 1 director

A director at Billerud AB maiden bought 7,000 shares at 99.500SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cle...

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Mixed Q3s and soft datapoint for Stockholm office market

This week, Hufvudstaden, Veidekke, Selvaag Bolig and Skanska reported Q3 results. Furthermore, Vasakronan (unlisted) reported soft vacancies and net lettings, which we consider a negative datapoint for peers such as Fabege and Hufuvdstaden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.33% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.

Elektroimportøren (Buy, TP: NOK14.50) - Lighting up

Elektroimportøren continues to navigate a challenging market, but we find the Q3 adj. EBITDA beat encouraging, driven by improved profitability. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK14.5 (9.5) on positive estimate revisions, reduced financial risk and peer group multiples expansion.

Elektroimportøren (Hold, TP: NOK9.50) - Q3 above on improved profitabi...

We consider this a positive report for Elektroimportøren, including underlying figures above expectations due to improved profitability and revenue growth for Q4 so far. We expect 5% positive revisions to consensus 2024e adj. EBITDA and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

September: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y

Scatec (Hold, TP: NOK86.00) - Setting its priorities straight

We like the sharpened investment strategy up to 2027 with keener focus on core technologies and markets, and we welcome the attention on deleveraging, but we believe more than the low end of divestment proceeds is needed to fix the balance sheet. With more EPC scope from core technologies and an outlook for higher margins, we believe the market could start to assign a higher value to D&C. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK86 (80) on increased D&C estimates.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Two upgrades, an equity raise, and transactions

This week, we upgraded Balder to BUY and Sagax to HOLD following their Q3 results, Balder completed a SEK1.5bn equity raise and bought assets from a JV, while a >5% rent increase for 2025 provided a positive datapoint for rent-regulated apartments in Sweden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.31% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.

6% FCF yield while waiting for a recovery

Stora acquires a Finnish sawmill company

Q3: Softer than expected on nearly all line items

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Outgrowing peers in 2025e

Q3 and rental KPIs in focus

This week, reporting season was in full swing, with nine covered companies reporting Q3 results. Overall, the results were mixed, while net lettings and vacancy rates were main points of interest given the current weak rental markets. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.32% for 2024e and 4.78% for 2025e.

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - Strong prices lead to good profits

Q3 marked yet another strong quarter for AAK, with EBIT/kg above its 2030 ambition for the fifth quarter in a row along with continue strong volumes growth, especially for its CCF business, driven by cocoa butter alternatives. With cocoa prices still at record highs, we expect AAK to still benefit from this going into 2025. We reiterate our BUY and SEK360 target price.