AAK (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - 2030 targets in focus

We are positive ahead of the CMD, scheduled to begin at 09:00 CET on 26 November, expecting AAK to raise its 2030 EBIT/kg target to >SEK3/kg and reiterate its ambition to outgrow the market in volumes and >10% EBIT growth p.a. We find consensus 2025–2026e EBIT low, at c3–5%, and believe clarity on structural margin improvements would be positive. We also expect focus on capital allocation, with AAK set to be net cash positive in early 2025e. We reiterate our BUY and SEK360 target price.

Odfjell SE: 1 director

A director at Odfjell SE bought 50,000 shares at 109.710NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 64/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Share price +28% last 3M with room for more

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK11.00) - Set for Q4 investment ramp-up

Q3 cash EBITDA was down 13% YOY, as reduced secured collections and normalised REO sales offset lower opex and stronger unsecured collections. With an improved capital structure, the company is preparing to step up investments in Q4, reiterating its NOK2.5bn–3.0bn investment guidance for 2024. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e, and reiterate our BUY and NOK11 target price.

Odfjell SE (Buy, TP: NOK210.00) - Solid tanker yield at a discount

We see potential for the tanker market to improve on healthy demand and limited 3% supply growth in 2025e. We forecast a solid dividend yield of 20% for 2025–2026, and believe the stock offers attractive tanker exposure, trading at an average 2025–2026e EV/EBITDA of 2.3x (peers 4.2x) and P/E of 2.6x (peers 5.4x). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK210 (205), mainly on currency effects.

Soft cash-EBITDA, strong opex beat

Over-collection continues: unsecure (108%), secured (133%) & sale; Cash EBITDA of NOK 1,012m, -3% vs ABG and -7% vs cons; Stock down 2-4% (inv./ERC), as cons est rev. 2-4% (ERC/inv)

Still strong rates, now at 40% yield

Net rates of USD 88.8/CBM in October, up 6% from September. ~2% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q4'24e. Positive share price reaction warranted.

Carasent (Buy, TP: NOK27.00) - Strategic initiatives bearing fruit

Carasent reported accelerated growth (17% YOY in organic recurring revenues) and improved profitability in Q3, suggesting that its strategic initiatives have started to materialise, further substantiated by the milestone acquisition of Data-Al. While we have raised our 2025–2026e EBITDAC by 12%, we still see upside potential from further growth and cost synergies. Thus, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK27 (25).

6% FCF yield while waiting for a recovery

Q3: Softer than expected on nearly all line items

Höegh Autoliners ASA Minor model adjustments

We have reduced our Q4 2024 and 2025 adj. EBITDA estimates slightly in light of the Q3 report. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We have raised our target price to NOK152 (149). We find yesterday’s share-price reaction a reflection of overall deteriorating sentiment across the shipping sector, but believe the muted guidance should prompt downward revisions to a perhaps overly optimistic consensus. Still, potentially lasting cash flow...

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - Strong prices lead to good profits

Q3 marked yet another strong quarter for AAK, with EBIT/kg above its 2030 ambition for the fifth quarter in a row along with continue strong volumes growth, especially for its CCF business, driven by cocoa butter alternatives. With cocoa prices still at record highs, we expect AAK to still benefit from this going into 2025. We reiterate our BUY and SEK360 target price.

Another jump in CCF EBIT/kg

DPS of NOK 110 from now to end-'26

Volume growth all over, but approaching tougher comps

Beat on DPS, but somewhat soft Q4 guidance

EBITDA USD 177m (ABGSC USD 178m, cons USD 183m). Q4 EBITDA to be "...in line with the last nine months run rate". Share up 0-2%.

AAK divests North American foodservice

Höegh Autoliners ASA Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates, owing to the monthly trading updates from the company and other minor forecast changes. Stronger freight rates were mostly offset by lower volumes, and imply limited changes to our forecasts and valuation. Headline revenues have been pre-announced and leave limited potential for surprises (mainly on the cost side), in our view. However, cash proceeds from the sale of two vessels in Q3 leave scope for a meaningful dividend, and we forecast USD1.45/share versus conse...

Awaiting the light at the end of the tunnel

Construction activity and sentiment at a low point. '24e-'26e EBIT down 6-1%. BUY – over 55% upside at ~6% '25e lease adj. FCF yield.

Heads-up for report 24 October