reports
- Alexander Aukner
- Alexander Aukner
- Alexander Aukner
Light at the end of the tunnel
With real prospects of a Covid-19 vaccine and our view of a tight supply situation in 2021, we see light at the end of the tunnel for the salmon farmers. After four years of falling salmon prices, we expect spot prices to improve from H2 2021, aided by increased consumer demand post-Covid-19 lockdowns. We forecast salmon prices of NOK54/kg (56) in 2020 and NOK60/kg (62) in 2021, and remain positive on the sector. Our sector top picks are Lerøy Seafood, Austevoll Seafood and Atlantic Sapphire
- Alexander Aukner
- Alexander Aukner
- Alexander Aukner
- Alexander Aukner
- Alexander Aukner
- Alexander Aukner
- Alexander Aukner
- Alexander Aukner
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
- Patrik Ling
- Simen Mortensen
- Tomi Railo
- Alexander Aukner
Atlantic Sapphire (Buy, TP: NOK151.00) - First harvest in the US
On 28 September, Atlantic Sapphire announced the first fish had been harvested from US Bluehouse and guided for ramped up volumes in the weeks ahead. Moreover, it announced some important customers, indicating a wide range of speciality retailers and distributors. Going forward, we will look for stabilising production, consumer responses and realised prices. Early price indications suggest upside potential to our estimates. We reiterate our BUY and NOK151 target price.
- Alexander Aukner
- Alexander Aukner
- Alexander Aukner
- Nicolas McBeath
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
- Alexander Aukner
Atlantic Sapphire (Buy, TP: NOK151.00) - Liquidity squeeze resolved
Atlantic Sapphire recently raised USD100m in a private placement of 8.9m new shares at NOK102/share. The proceeds will plug the liquidity gap between phase 1 and phase 2 and ensure ample flexibility over the next two years. The company’s operational update revealed good biological performances in the US and Denmark, and high customer satisfaction. We reiterate our BUY and have tweaked our target price to NOK151 (156) due to a lower financial risk and a higher probability of success, but a higher...
- Alexander Aukner
- Alexander Aukner
- Alexander Aukner
- Joachim Gunell
- Jon Masdal
- Martin Hoang Nguyen
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
- Tomi Railo
- Alexander Aukner
Atlantic Sapphire (Buy, TP: NOK156.00) - Short-term liquidity squeeze
The H1 report revealed increased capex and a delayed steady-state in the US, leading to a tight liquidity situation there when bridging phase 1 and 2. The company is looking into refinancing its debt structure, possibly via equity. Operations were in line with our expectations and the guidance. We have cut our 2021–2022e EPS by 10.3–41.1% to reflect the expected delayed harvest from phase 1 and 2 in the US. We believe the long-term fundamentals are still in place and reiterate our BUY, but h...
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