reports
- Oscar Haffen Lamm
Camurus: Brixadi bounced back; optionality provided in the incretin sp...
Camurus' Q2 earnings main takeaway was Brixadi rebounding sharply (+32% QoQ at CER), signalling that earlier US market headwinds - insurance renewals, CJS funding delays and destocking - have largely resolved. Prescription data (TRx) for Q2 was 2.1x YoY, supporting our estimate of c. 51k patients o
- Oscar Haffen Lamm
Camurus Q2: Brixadi renewed growth, Buvidal slowed
Camurus reported its Q2 2025 results, highlighted by renewed growth for Brixadi in the US at CER (still impacted by FX headwinds), a slowing of Buvidal and a beat on profitability. Total revenues came in at SEK676m (c. +6.8% vs css) and PBT at SEK307m (+14,6% vs css), impacted by the USD12m upfront
- Oscar Haffen Lamm
Camurus: Oczyesa gains EU approval for Acromegaly
Oclaiz/Oczyesa (Octreotide LAI, somatostatin analogue SSA) gained EU approval for Acromegaly - largely expected following the positive CHMP opinion in April'25. While the commercial potential in EU is rather limited for the indication (we estimate USD170m in total peak sales, with the US accounting
- Oscar Haffen Lamm
Camurus: CAM2029 Ph2/3 in PLD met primary endpoint, follow up Ph3 TBD
Camurus reported topline data from its phase 2/3 POSITANO study (n=71) evaluating CAM2029 in PLD which met the primary endpoint showing stat. sig. relative reduction of the liver volume (htTLV) from baseline to week 53 of 4.3% (p=0.044) vs pbo, with corresponding relative reduction in total liver c
- Oscar Haffen Lamm
Camurus: Signs USD870m deal with Lilly for LAI incretins
Camurus signed a USD870m deal with Eli Lilly, licensing its FluidCrystal technology for up to four long-acting injectable (LAI) incretin candidates. The upfront, development and regulatory milestones of USD290, combined with USD580m in sales milestones and tiered mid-single digit royalties, further
- Oscar Haffen Lamm
Camurus Q1: Beat on profitability, Buvidal/Brixadi momentum preserved
Camurus reported its Q1'25 results, with topline revenues of SEK558m (c. -6% vs css, primarily due to FX), and a beat on profitability with PBT coming in at SEK254m (c. +20% vs css). Buvidal maintained its growth momentum in Q1 with 3,000 new patients on treatment (vs. 4,000 in Q4, but consistent w
- Simen Mortensen
YIT (Sell, TP: EUR2.00) - 2025 guidance unchanged, we see EPS close to...
Q1 EBIT and EPS saw a healthy beat against our estimates and consensus, driven by a strong sales mix and internal efficiency gains. Unsold, completed apartments fell by 30% YOY, to their lowest level since Q3 2023. We have raised our 2025e EBIT, but do not see this as evidence of a broader recovery in Finnish residential markets. Our 2025e EBIT remains just above the guidance mid-point, with EPS hovering just below zero. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to EUR2 (1.75).
- Oscar Haffen Lamm
Camurus: Oczyesa (CAM2029) in acromegaly received positive CHMP opinio...
Camurus announced on Friday that the EMA's CHMP adopted a positive opinion for the approval of Oczyesa (CAM2029) for the maintenance treatment in adult patients with acromegaly who have responded to and tolerated treatment with somatostatin analogues (SSAs). As a reminder, SSAs are considered as th
- Tomi Railo
- Simen Mortensen
Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations
Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.
- Patrik Ling
Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK725.00) - In line with consensus Q1 sales
Our Q1 and 2025 estimates are broadly in line with consensus. We expect continued growth for Buvidal and the Brixadi royalties, and more clarity on the Oclaiz approval for the US market (to settle manufacturing observations, which resulted in the CRL in October 2024). We reiterate our BUY and SEK725 target price.
- Tomi Railo
- Simen Mortensen
YIT (Sell, TP: EUR1.75) - No KPI or EBIT recovery in Q1e
The Finnish residential and commercial real estate markets continue to show no sign of recovery in Q1. While we expect the CEE division to recover, given its minor size, we still forecast group EBIT of zero for Q1. We will look for commentary on the housing shortage and an expected recovery on lower interest rates – a recurring topic the past for three years. We find consensus too bullish and reiterate our SELL and EUR1.75 target price.
- Tomi Railo
- Patrik Ling
Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK725.00) - Guidance in line with expectations
Q4 earnings were as pre-announced, and included stronger-than-expected growth in Buvidal sales as well as a slight beat on Brixadi royalties. Consensus for 2025e is at the top end of the guidance; however, historically management has raised its guidance during the year. We reiterate our BUY and SEK725 target price.
- Tomi Railo
Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - Mixed Q4, with Services shining
We have cut our 2025–2026e clean EPS by c3% on average due to the Q4 earnings miss, our lower capital profitability forecast, and our higher financial cost estimates. We continue to believe the valuation is attractive, and reiterate our BUY and EUR32 target price.
- Oscar Haffen Lamm
Camurus FY 2024: Strong momentum to continue into 2025
Camurus reported its FY'2024 results, which highlighted the continued growth in Q4, especially for i) Buvidal which came in at SEK469m (+11.4% QoQ), with 4,000 patients added on treatment for the quarter (vs. 3,000 for previous quarters), explained by strong market share gain in EU5, and ii) Brixad
- Simen Mortensen
YIT (Sell, TP: EUR1.75) - 2025 set to be another lost year
Q4 EBIT and EPS were well below our forecasts and consensus. However, the main disappointment in the report was the 2025 adj. EBIT guidance – at EUR20m–60m, based on expected Housing completions. We have cut our EBIT forecast to align with the guidance mid-point, while our 2025–2026e EPS are back in negative territory, with the recovery seemingly delayed for another year. We reiterate our SELL, and have cut our target price to EUR1.75 (2).
- Tomi Railo
Quality rise warrants multiples uplift
Our analysis shows that Finnish industrials have improved their earnings quality over the past 10 years, supported by expanding Service profitability and shares of total sales and earnings. We believe this together with improved stability, visibility and financials should be better rewarded in the valuations. We have a positive sector stance and highlight Konecranes, Metso and Valmet on potential multiples expansion.
- Oscar Haffen Lamm
Camurus: raised FY24 profitability
Yesterday Camurus raised its expected FY24 earnings, with i) profit before tax expected at SEK553m (vs guidance SEK450-510m), and ii) FY24 revenues expected at the higher range of the previously stated guidance at SEK1.868bn. This implies SEK554m in revenues in Q4 (+15% QoQ), which indicates that B
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