reports
- Simen Mortensen
YIT (Sell, TP: EUR2.00) - 2025 guidance unchanged, we see EPS close to...
Q1 EBIT and EPS saw a healthy beat against our estimates and consensus, driven by a strong sales mix and internal efficiency gains. Unsold, completed apartments fell by 30% YOY, to their lowest level since Q3 2023. We have raised our 2025e EBIT, but do not see this as evidence of a broader recovery in Finnish residential markets. Our 2025e EBIT remains just above the guidance mid-point, with EPS hovering just below zero. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to EUR2 (1.75).
- Oscar Haffen Lamm
Camurus: Oczyesa (CAM2029) in acromegaly received positive CHMP opinio...
Camurus announced on Friday that the EMA's CHMP adopted a positive opinion for the approval of Oczyesa (CAM2029) for the maintenance treatment in adult patients with acromegaly who have responded to and tolerated treatment with somatostatin analogues (SSAs). As a reminder, SSAs are considered as th
- Tomi Railo
- Simen Mortensen
Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations
Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.
- Patrik Ling
Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK725.00) - In line with consensus Q1 sales
Our Q1 and 2025 estimates are broadly in line with consensus. We expect continued growth for Buvidal and the Brixadi royalties, and more clarity on the Oclaiz approval for the US market (to settle manufacturing observations, which resulted in the CRL in October 2024). We reiterate our BUY and SEK725 target price.
- Tomi Railo
- Simen Mortensen
YIT (Sell, TP: EUR1.75) - No KPI or EBIT recovery in Q1e
The Finnish residential and commercial real estate markets continue to show no sign of recovery in Q1. While we expect the CEE division to recover, given its minor size, we still forecast group EBIT of zero for Q1. We will look for commentary on the housing shortage and an expected recovery on lower interest rates – a recurring topic the past for three years. We find consensus too bullish and reiterate our SELL and EUR1.75 target price.
- Tomi Railo
- Patrik Ling
Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK725.00) - Guidance in line with expectations
Q4 earnings were as pre-announced, and included stronger-than-expected growth in Buvidal sales as well as a slight beat on Brixadi royalties. Consensus for 2025e is at the top end of the guidance; however, historically management has raised its guidance during the year. We reiterate our BUY and SEK725 target price.
- Tomi Railo
Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - Mixed Q4, with Services shining
We have cut our 2025–2026e clean EPS by c3% on average due to the Q4 earnings miss, our lower capital profitability forecast, and our higher financial cost estimates. We continue to believe the valuation is attractive, and reiterate our BUY and EUR32 target price.
- Oscar Haffen Lamm
Camurus FY 2024: Strong momentum to continue into 2025
Camurus reported its FY'2024 results, which highlighted the continued growth in Q4, especially for i) Buvidal which came in at SEK469m (+11.4% QoQ), with 4,000 patients added on treatment for the quarter (vs. 3,000 for previous quarters), explained by strong market share gain in EU5, and ii) Brixad
- Simen Mortensen
YIT (Sell, TP: EUR1.75) - 2025 set to be another lost year
Q4 EBIT and EPS were well below our forecasts and consensus. However, the main disappointment in the report was the 2025 adj. EBIT guidance – at EUR20m–60m, based on expected Housing completions. We have cut our EBIT forecast to align with the guidance mid-point, while our 2025–2026e EPS are back in negative territory, with the recovery seemingly delayed for another year. We reiterate our SELL, and have cut our target price to EUR1.75 (2).
- Tomi Railo
Quality rise warrants multiples uplift
Our analysis shows that Finnish industrials have improved their earnings quality over the past 10 years, supported by expanding Service profitability and shares of total sales and earnings. We believe this together with improved stability, visibility and financials should be better rewarded in the valuations. We have a positive sector stance and highlight Konecranes, Metso and Valmet on potential multiples expansion.
- Oscar Haffen Lamm
Camurus: raised FY24 profitability
Yesterday Camurus raised its expected FY24 earnings, with i) profit before tax expected at SEK553m (vs guidance SEK450-510m), and ii) FY24 revenues expected at the higher range of the previously stated guidance at SEK1.868bn. This implies SEK554m in revenues in Q4 (+15% QoQ), which indicates that B
- Simen Mortensen
Wide peer valuation range on market recovery expectations
Various waves of expectations for a recovery in newbuild markets have led to volatility in the sector, but an upwards share-price trend overall. Although we still await proof the new-volume market (both residential and commercial) is recovering, consensus is fuelled by falling rates. However, trailing profits under IFRS valuations are record-wide. We maintain a neutral sector view and stock-picking approach.
- Patrik Ling
Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK725.00) - We expect a strong Q4
We are in line with consensus for revenues in Q4e, but above on PTP, despite a large increase in operating expenses YOY in our forecast. We believe focus will be on comments related to the CRL for CAM2029. We reiterate our BUY and SEK725 target price.
- Tomi Railo
- Simen Mortensen
YIT (Sell, TP: EUR2.00) - Set for zero Q4 EPS
We forecast Q4 EPS to be close to zero, in line with Vara consensus; EPS should improve in 2025–2026e but remain low nominally. For the Q4 webcast, we expect the focus to be on capital releases and cost efficiency programmes. We reiterate our SELL and EUR2 target price, finding a better risk/reward elsewhere.
- Simen Mortensen
YIT (Sell, TP: EUR2.00) - New ambitions, but with a condition
At its CMD, the company presented new financial and non-financial targets through 2029. However, these depend on a reversion in the Finnish residential market to an historical average of c16,000 new housing starts annually. Given YIT’s track record of not achieving its financial targets, we have made no forecast changes. We reiterate our SELL and EUR2 target price, finding a better risk/reward elsewhere.
- Patrik Ling
Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK725.00) - Strong earnings, raised guidance
While Q3 sales were a little light, earnings were well above our estimate and consensus. Following the results, Camurus raised its 2024 sales and PTP guidance. We believe the complete response letter (CRL) for Oclaiz™ in the US could be resolved by Q1 and the product launched in the US in Q2. A European approval for Oclaiz™ could come around mid-2025, we believe. Data read-out from the SORENTO trial (being an event-driven trial) is now expected late-2025/early-2026 (Q2 2025 originally). We reite...
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