Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK290.00) - Muted growth continues

The Q1 results were above expectations on lower-than-expected costs, while growth continued to be muted. We reiterate our SELL as we continue to find the valuation high relative to growth prospects, but have raised our target price to NOK290 (280) on increased estimates.

Trim the cost, be the boss

~20% better on lower cost

Q1: Group EBITDA +17% vs cons on 9% lower cost. Confidence in targets. Cons '25 EBITDA +5%, stock up 5-10%

Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK280.00) - Prisjakt sold at low price

Schibsted has signed an agreement to sell Prisjakt to eEquity for SEK500m. We find the price low, at c40% of our SOTP value, but find it positive that the company continues to simplify its portfolio to focus on Nordic Marketplaces. We expect a slightly negative share price reaction.

Prisjakt sold - closer to a pure marketplace

Prisjakt sold for SEK 500 / NOK ~2 per share

Heads-up for report 7 May

Confidence hit

Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK280.00) - Falling short early, high hopes late...

We are significantly below consensus for Q1e EBITDA, expecting underperformance in all segments and verticals, except for Real Estate. We reiterate our SELL and have lowered our target price to NOK280 (290) on our estimate revisions. At our new target price, Schibsted would be trading at a c10% discount to our SOTP.

Norway: Best ideas Q1'25

Buy the dip, ride the flip

Online classifieds: Q4 wrap

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Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK290.00) - Uninspiring growth

The Q4 report was weak, with EBITDA 14% below consensus, reflecting soft growth in Nordic Marketplaces and higher costs than expected. We reiterate our SELL and on lowered estimates have cut our target price to NOK290 (300) – at which the stock would be trading at a 10% discount to SOTP and in line with peers on 2026e EV/EBITDA.

Tripped at the first hurdle; Q1 to improve

Core 9% below, targets kept

Q4: Group EBITDA -13% vs cons: NMP, core, EBITDA 9% below on higher cost.Targets kept. Short term headwind on ad rev (and Jobs)

Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK300.00) - Time to Re(think)commerce

Recommerce’s transactional service is a key growth driver for Schibsted, despite its significant historical EBITDA losses. In this note, we have taken a closer look at what is needed to reach profitability in volumes and improved unit economics. We believe the 2027 CMD EBITDA target and consensus for the segment are optimistic, and that Schibsted should reconsider its strategic options to reduce losses and crystalise value. We reiterate our SELL and NOK300 target price.

Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK300.00) - Car dealer package selections suppor...

Our tracking of car ads in Norway shows that a significant share of the dealers traded up from the Basis package despite significant price increases. We believe this supports consensus of double-digit revenue growth for Mobility in 2025.

Big growth, bigger discounts

Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK300.00) - Real estate package downgrades conti...

Our tracking and checks with industry sources show that the downgrading of packages from ‘Large’ to ‘Medium’ looks to have accelerated following the new pricing model in Real Estate. If the current trend continues, we believe there is downside risk to consensus and Schibsted growth targets presented at the CMD 2024.

Online classifieds: Q3 wrap

Peers' Q3 show resilience, overall confident for '25. SCH showing better ARPA momentum: Set to continue

Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK300.00) - High valuation meets low growth

We are below consensus on Q4e EBITDA, due to soft growth and higher costs. We reiterate our SELL as we find the valuation rich, but keep our NOK300 target price as estimate cuts are offset by a peer group revaluation.