reports
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF620, +20%) Swisscom and Vodafone agree bind...
Swisscom and Vodafone have announced a binding agreement for Vodafone Italy: an €8bn EV for 100% of the company, on a debt-free basis. We update our thoughts on the deal in this piece from a Swisscom perspective, and will be following up with a piece looking at the deal from a Vodafone perspective later today.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +100%) M&A Watch: How Iliad could still buy Voda...
Vodafone’s recent announcement that they are selling their Italian assets to Fastweb will likely have frustrated Xavier Niel, who we know has been keen to do a deal with Vodafone Italy for a number of years. Is this the end of the story? We think it might not be, and if Vodafone won’t sell the asset to him, then maybe he should acquire the whole of Vodafone.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +105%) Selling Italy to rebrand as Vodakom?
With the sale of Spain, and now the announced provisional sale of Vodafone Italy to Swisscom for €8bn, the profile of Vodafone changes dramatically with these full exits and Vodafone increasingly just becomes a German company instead. Should it be called Vodakom now instead?!
- Chris Hoare
- James Ratzer
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Soomit Datta
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +106%) Q3 results - Supported by strong B2B grow...
Vodafone’s Q3 results showed overall financial trends were broadly in line with expectations. But focus will likely be on German broadband losses, B2B trends, and commentary that M&A discussions in Italy are ongoing. We review these key themes and other thoughts in this quick take.
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Vodafone (Buy, TP: 140p , +111%) Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF620, +22%)...
M&A stories are in full swing, just when we want to be winding down for the holiday season. Such is the life of a Telecoms analyst! The latest press report is that Swisscom is considering a counter offer for Vodafone Italy; in reality we suspect everyone has been talking to everyone for quite some time. We think that Swisscom can get close to matching the Iliad offer in terms of overall attractiveness, which will give the Vodafone Board food for thought.
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Vodafone (Buy, TP: 140p, +111%) Iliad (HY coverage, but not rated) I...
On Tuesday of last week we received notification of a remedy proposal for Orange-Masmovil in Spain (HERE), which we thought could encourage other 4-3 deals in Europe. Less than a week later, Iliad has proposed a merger (really a takeover) with Vodafone in Italy. In this note, we run through our thoughts on the proposed deal.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU Telecoms Ready for a Good 2024 Steady growth reducing the risk pro...
After many years of headwinds, the EU telecoms sector has now performed in line with the market over the past two years supported by a gradual reduction in the risk profile as regulatory tailwinds help make earnings trends more predictable. In 2023, all of the major telcos outperformed the market, with the aggregate performance held back by Vodafone. We believe the EU telecoms sector is set for a good 2024 with a continued reduction in risk perception helping to support a multiple re-rating.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +94%) Was 150p Is the discount justified? Mod...
After the H1 results and the stock going ex-dividend last week, we publish our new model and in this note we review our thesis. Given the impact of both of these issues, we lower our fair value from 150p to 140p (4p from ex-dividend and 6p from forecast changes), but see no real change to our core thesis, ie an improving regulatory environment across Europe should help all telecoms names including Vodafone, and while there is a clear headwind ahead from German cable TV losses, there are also tai...
- James Ratzer
VodafoneZiggo Tougher longer-term outlook in the Dutch market
Yesterday my colleague, Russell Waller, published a detailed note looking at KPN's CMD guidance in conjunction with a review of our tour to see the other main Dutch operators: VodafoneZiggo, Odido and Delta. In case you missed it, I wanted to highlight the note to you as at the end of this report, we show a new outlook for VodafoneZiggo, in particular in light of rising competition from alternative fibre providers with promotional pricing.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 150p, +95%) Thoughts post-earnings call
Vodafone’s earnings call recently wrapped up and we have to say we are slightly surprised by the market share price reaction today. Although the company wasn’t able to give a clear answer on the cash return outlook, we did feel they gave a clearer outlook on future EBITDA growth and a confident pitch from the new CFO.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 150p, +95%) H1 24 - Highest EU service revenue growth ...
Vodafone’s Q2/ H1 results all look pretty solid – with the stand-out feature coming from a sharp recovery in German revenue trends as the price rise lands better than expected. This led to EU service revenue growth of +1.5% - the highest growth since 2008 (yes 15 years ago - that’s not a typo).
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 150p, +97%) Spanish sale announced - our quick take
After years of questions about their performance in Spain and whether the asset is sub-scale or not, Vodafone has finally taken the decision to sell their Spain asset. The timing is interesting in advance of the binary Masmovil-Orange ruling, but are extracting a reasonable price on exit (based on our 150p/ share fair value), albeit there is some uncertainty on whether Vodafone will be able to extract the full value.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
1&1 contract migration - deep dive report Nowhere near as bad as inve...
When the 1&1 contract migration to Vodafone was announced, we published our initial findings and said we would revert with formal estimate changes and new price targets. Given it has been August, this has taken a little longer than we anticipated and we apologise for that - but we produce our full findings here.
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