MOF Inc Fully Exits DNB; Cut Telco Earnings To Reflect Nearterm DNB Losses Highlights CelcomDigi and Maxis have each paid RM327.9m to purchase a third of MOF Inc’s shares in DNB and take over its loan. YTL is assumed to have finalised the purchase of the option as well. We expect DNB to operate at a loss up to 2028, which should progressively narrow due to the deep cost-cutting measures implemented. We assume losses of RM604m (2026) and RM431m (2027), and cut our net profit forecasts for Cel...
2025: In Line; 5G Remains An Overhang On The Industry Highlights 2025 sector earnings came in broadly in line, declining 3% yoy due to Axiata’s underperformance. TIME, TM and Maxis delivered double-digit earnings growth supporting their healthy dividend payout. 2025 was characterised by: a) persistent postpaid revenue growth from preto- postpaid migration; b) moderating prepaid churn, supported by ARPU uplift (+4% yoy); c) robust demand for fibre; and d) cost discipline. Maintain MARKET WE...
Greater China Economics | China China set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% yoy, in line with expectations, while maintaining a 4% fiscal deficit ratio. Fiscal policy remains the main growth driver, supported by Rmb4.4t in local government special bonds and Rmb1.3t in ultra-long treasury bonds, while monetary policy stays accommodative. Policy priorities focus on AI+, New Quality Productive Forces, industrial upgrading, and targeted consumption support, alongside welfare improvements and ...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China's humanoid robotics sector is accelerating, with 2025 global shipments up 508%. Key players anticipate significant revenue contributions by 2031: CATL expects 3-7% from batteries; Minth and LeaderDrive project 5-12% and 45-65% respectively; Tuopu forecasts 15-25% from motion systems; and RoboSense targets 40-60% from LiDAR. We maintain a MARKET WEIGHT rating on the sector. Top BUY recommendations include CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth (target price ra...
4Q25: Below Expectations; Main Drag From Indonesia Highlights Axiata reported a 4Q25 net profit on continued operations of RM106m – a weak set of numbers due to XLSmart integration costs and LinkNet losses. 2025 net profit of RM365m on continued operations was below expectations. Associate dividends to the group amounted to RM1.7b, supporting dividends. Axiata’s balance sheet health continued to improve with net debt/EBITDA falling to 2.46x in 4Q25 (3Q25: 2.61x). The group declared a 5 sen i...
4Q25: In Line; Robust Earnings Driven By Cost Discipline Highlights Maxis recorded robust 4Q25 results, with core net profit of RM380m (+18% yoy; -8% qoq), underpinned by cost discipline, operational efficiencies and higher service and enterprise revenue base. This brings 2025 net profit to RM1,561m (+12% yoy), in line with expectations. The group declared a final interim DPS of 4 sen/share, and a special 1.5 sen/share DPS for 4Q25. This brings full-year 2025 net DPS to 17.5 sen/share (2024:...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile CATL, BYD, and Changan are deploying SIBs in EVs due to longer cycle lives, strong cold-weather performance and better fire safety. SIB-equipped EV sales are projected to make up 4-9% of global EV sales. LIBs remain dominant, but CATL benefits from diversification. The lithium market is expected to stay resilient through 2030. The hike in lithium carbonate costs will mostly be borne by auto OEMs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT; BUY CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth, G...
Portfolio Optimisation To Unlock Growth And Value Creation Highlights The edotco monetisation can happen in 2026, while Linknet may take a longer time to find a suitable investor. Valuation of the edotco - if it is sold - will not be on a fire-sale basis, and we expect a valuation of 10-12x EV/EBITDA. Axiata Group’s (Axiata) 2026-28 Investor Day highlighted that management will focus on the following three key areas: a) growing annual dividends by at or over 10% yoy; b) maintaining net debt/...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Recent equity placements proposals by Zhuhai Huafa Properties and Seazen signal improving equity financing conditions for mainland developers. Expected losses in 2025 will lower BPS for SOE/quasi-SOE developers, increasing the likelihood of state-owned capital injections amid industry consolidation. Jan 26 property sales data shows improved yoy performances in both the primary and secondary markets, partly due to a low base in Jan 25 which was impacte...
MOF Inc Set To Exit DNB; DNB’s Operating Losses To Pressure Shareholders’ Bottom Line Highlights MOF Inc has exercised its put options in relation to its existing 41.67% stake in DNB, requiring CelcomDigi, Maxis and YTL Power International (YTL Power) to each fork out RM327.9m to honour the shareholders’ agreement. We expect DNB to operate at a loss (2025 estimated loss is RM1b) in the near term. Our sensitivity analysis suggests -10% and -12% impact to 2026 earnings forecasts for CelcomDigi...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut improved sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Jacobson,...
MOF Exercises Put Options For Its 41.67% Stake In DNB Highlights In a recent Bursa announcement by CelcomDigi and Maxis, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) has exercised its put options in relations to its existing 41.67% stake in Digital Nasional Bhd (DNB). The put option notice requires the three investor shareholders, CelcomDigi, Maxis and YTL Power International to purchase the ordinary shares in DNB owned by MOF and take over the MOF loan together with accrued interest. The trio is required ...
3Q25: In Line; Balance Sheet Optimisation Plan On Track Highlights Axiata reported 3Q25 underlying net profit from continued operations of RM137m (-40% yoy; -17% qoq), which excluded gains on early debt redemption and Linknet goodwill impairment (RM167m). This brings 9M25 underlying net profit to RM343m, accounting for 80% of our full-year forecast, which we deem to be in line. Axiata improved its balance sheet health with net debt/EBITDA reduced to 2.61x in 3Q25 (2Q25: 2.76x). Monetisation ...
Greater China Strategy | Market Strategy Global liquidity is expected to stay supportive through 1H26 following the Fed’s Sep 25 rate cut, lifting emerging-market assets and commodities. Chinese equities should extend gains, with MSCI China targeted at 104 on 16.3x forward PE and 6% EPS growth. Growth will rely more on domestic demand amid geopolitical risks and slowing external momentum. China’s GDP growth for 2026 is projected to rise 4.2% yoy. We favour AI/semiconductors, automation/robotics,...
3Q25: Strong Results; Margin Expansion Promotes EBITDA Target Revision Highlights Maxis recorded strong 3Q25 results, with net profit reported at RM412m (+13% yoy; +4% qoq) on the back of cost discipline and higher service and enterprise revenue base. This brought 9M25 net profit to RM1,181m, making up 79% of house and street estimates. We deem the results to be in line with expectations. Maxis declared a third interim DPS of 4 sen (76% payout) and revised its EBITDA guidance to a mid-single...
Greater China Economics | Inflation October CPI turned positive at 0.2% yoy (+0.5ppt), as food deflation eased to -2.9% yoy, with fresh vegetables and fruits recovering, though pork stayed weak. Core CPI inflation rose to a year-high 1.2% yoy, with both goods and services inflation picking up. Notable strength was observed in other products & services and transportation & communication. PPI deflation narrowed to -2.1% yoy, driven by improvements in mining, raw materials, and downstream consumer ...
Capitalising On Enterprise Segment Amid Saturated Mobile Landscape Highlights The enterprise segment is expected to drive revenue expansion among telco players as the saturated mobile market experiences a muted subscriber and ARPU outlook. In the recent Budget 2026, the government is allocating up to RM780m to expand fibre coverage to more than 2,700 locations under JENDELA 2. This will benefit telco infrastructure players and MNOs. The sector trades at 8x EV/EBITDA, +2SD above the mean. M...
Greater China Economics | Inflation September’s CPI inflation improved slightly to -0.3% yoy (+0.1ppt), with core CPI reaching a ytd high of 1.0% yoy. However, food prices remained weak (-4.4% yoy), led by a 17% yoy fall in pork prices. PPI deflation eased to -2.3% yoy (+0.6ppt), with broad recovery in mining and quarrying and raw metal materials. Looking ahead, look out for improvement in consumer goods PPI inflation, which should be indicative of a sustainable improvement in pricing power....
TM Leads Peers On The Path To Full Compliance Of Bursa Malaysia’s NSRF Highlights Malaysian telcos appear to be well-equipped to meet Bursa Malaysia’s sustainability reporting requirements, progressively aligning disclosures with Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) pillars and the NSRF. In addition, our ESG scoring suggests that TM and Maxis are ahead of their peers when it comes to ESG undertakings. The sector trades at 8x EV/EBITDA, +2SD above mean. Maintain MARKET...
Greater China Company Update | Miniso (MNSO US/BUY/US$23.53/Target: US$26.80) Miniso’s qtd business performance was in line with management’s expectations. Domestically, it has 12 Miniso Land stores, with a payback period of 3-4 months. Overseas, adjustments were implemented in the US market following the appointment of the new CEO, who has over 15 years of experience in local retailing. On proprietary IP strategy, Yoyo’s sales are expected to exceed Rmb100m in 2026. Management expects propr...
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