With the exception of the US, construction markets should continue to shrink in 2024 (-2% in Europe) before rebounding on the back of lower interest rates. Against this backdrop, groups will be differentiated mainly on the basis of their resilience (geographical and price/cost mix), capital allocation (and special situations) and valuation. In this context, we are upgrading our recommendations on KONE (modernisation as an alternative source of growth to China) and Holcim (a substantia...
Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la Chin...
>Underlying operating profit at € 46.3m (vs € 46.8m est.), i.e. a margin of 10.8% (-10bp) - This morning, Roche Bobois reported FY results broadly in line with our estimates. With € 429.5m in previously reported sales, up 5.1%, EBITDA came in at € 90.5m (vs € 87m est.) and the underlying operating profit at € 46.3m (vs € 46.8m est.), implying an underlying operating margin 10.8%, inching down 10bp. Attributable net profit was stable at € 31.3m (vs € 32m est.). The Gr...
>ROC de 46.3 M€ (vs 46.8 M€e) soit une marge de 10.8% (-10 pb) - Roche Bobois a publié ce matin des résultats annuels globalement en ligne avec nos attentes. Pour un CA (déjà publié) de 429.5 M€ en progression de 5.1%, l’EBITDA s’élève à 90.5 M€ (vs 87 M€e) et le ROC à 46.3 M€ (vs 46.8 M€e) soit une MOC de 10.8% en légère baisse de 10 pb. Le RNpg est quant à lui stable à 31.3 M€ (vs 32 M€e). Le groupe affiche une position de trésorerie nette, hors IFRS 16, de 30.6 M€ ...
Q4 sales well above our expectations, up sharply on a like-for-like basis after a downturn in Q3Annual guidance confirmed, with EBITDA for 2023 expected to improve on last year's record levelBuy opinion maintained, with a slight downward revision of our target price to €53/share (vs. €54 previously).
Although Argentina was only an anecdotal factor in Puma's profit warning, it has rekindled investors' questions about the impact of the peso's (official) depreciation following the election of Javier Milei last November. Here we recap on the risks faced by the twenty or so companies and sectors with a presence in Argentina within our universe of coverage. While the potential impact is marginal in most cases, it is more significant for: Prosegur, Prosegur Cash, Tenaris, Verallia, Save...
Même si l’Argentine n’est qu’un élément accessoire du profit warning de Puma, il a ravivé les interrogations des investisseurs sur l’impact de la dépréciation du peso (officiel) à la suite de l’élection de Javier Milei en novembre dernier. Nous revenons ici sur les risques encourus par la vingtaine de sociétés et secteurs ayant une présence en Argentine au sein de notre univers de couverture. Si l’impact potentiel est le plus souvent marginal, il est plus matériel chez : Prosegur, Pro...
>Q4 sales up 7% at € 112.5m (vs € 113m est.) - Roche Bobois reported yesterday its Q4 sales which were up 7% at € 112.5m, in line with our forecast of € 113m. For the full year, sales came to € 429.5m (vs € 430m est.), up 5.1% (+6.1% l-f-l) in line with the group’s guidance for sales above € 425m. At end-December, the backlog still to be delivered totalled € 137m (vs € 143m at end-September 2023).Strong resilience in activity - pending the franchise acqu...
>CA T4 en hausse de 7% à 112.5 M€ (vs 113 M€e) - Roche Bobois a publié hier soir son CA T4 qui ressort en hausse de 7% à 112.5 M€, en ligne avec notre attente de 113 M€. Sur l’ensemble de l’année, le CA s’établit à 429.5 M€ (vs 430 M€e), en progression de 5.1% (+6.1% lfl) en ligne avec la guidance du groupe d’un CA supérieur à 425 M€. A fin décembre, le carnet de commandes restant à livrer s’élève à 137 M€ (vs 143 M€ à fin septembre 2023).Bonne résilienc...
Q3 sales down slightly at cc, well below our expectations. This is the first downturn in sales since Q2 2020.Sales volumes continue to deteriorate slowly, but remain stable on a proforma basis in directly-operated stores.Annual guidance confirmed. We consider them to be at risk, despite the confidence shown by managementThanks to its high-end positioning, Roche Bobois is holding up better than the furniture market, but is not totally insensitive to the macroeconomic context, as Q3 showsBuy opini...
>Q3 revenue down 4.7% (-2.2% lfl) at € 98.4m (vs € 106 m est.) - Roche Bobois reported its Q3 revenue yesterday after trading, with a decline of 4.7% (-2.2% lfl) to € 98.4m, below our expectation of € 106m est. (+2.8%e). Over the 9 months to the end of September, revenue rose by 4.5% (+5.3% lfl) to € 320.1m. At end-September, the order backlog was € 143m (vs € 158m at end-June 2023). In view of these figures, the executive board has decided to make an exceptional inte...
>CA T3 en repli de 4.7% (-2.2% lfl) à 98.4 M€ (vs 106 M€e) - Roche Bobois a publié hier soir son CA T3 qui ressort en repli de 4.7% (-2.2% lfl) à 98.4 M€, inférieur à notre attente de 106 M€e (+2.8%e). Sur 9 mois cumulés, le CA s’élève à 320.1 M€ en progression de 4.5% (+5.3% lfl). A fin septembre, le carnet de commandes restant à livrer s’élève à 143 M€ (vs 158 M€ à fin juin 2023). Fort de ces chiffres, le Directoire a décidé le versement exceptionnel d’un acompte su...
S1 EBITDA up slightly, but slightly below our expectationsOpex impacted by rising personnel costs and the cost of new openingsAnnual guidance (sales up by at least +5% and EBITDA growth) which we believe is easily achievable.BUY opinion maintained, but target price lowered to €56/share
>EBITDA of € 49.9m (vs € 51m est.) i.e. a margin of 22.5% - This morning, Roche Bobois published interim results that were broadly in line with our forecasts. For H1 sales (already published) of € 221.7m, up 9.2%, EBITDA was € 49.9m (vs € 51m est.) resulting in a margin of 22.5%, down -110bp. Attributable net profit was € 19.6m (vs € 20.5m est.). The group boasts a net cash position excluding IFRS 16 of € 54m (vs € 65m at 31 December 2022) after a significant level of...
>EBITDA de 49.9 M€ (vs 51 M€e) soit une marge de 22.5% - Roche Bobois a publié ce matin des résultats semestriels globalement en ligne avec nos attentes. Pour un CA S1 (déjà publié) de 221.7 M€ en progression de 9.2% l’EBITDA s’élève à 49.9 M€ (vs 51 M€e) traduisant une marge de 22.5% en baisse de 110 pb. Le RNpg atteint quant à lui 19.6 M€ (vs 20.5 M€e). Le groupe est en position de trésorerie nette hors IFRS 16 de 54 M€ (vs 65 M€ au 31 décembre 2022) après un niveau...
Organic growth in Q2, after a dynamic Q1, thanks to accelerated deliveriesH2 should see growth, although organic growth is expected to decline slightlyThe €/$ effect will weigh on H2 margins, but should be offset by geographical mix and operating leverageWe maintain our full-year guidance and BUY opinion, with an unchanged fair value of €59.
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