reports
- Soomit Datta
ADYEN (Buy, TP: EUR1,800, +27%) Rise of the Merchants: Shifts in Inte...
As part of our accelerated efforts in Payments, our latest Deep Dive focuses on Interchange and the implications for Adyen and peers. The current narrative suggests it's not relevant for future profitability. We would refute this simplification: there are risks and opportunities for Adyen.
- Soomit Datta
ADYEN (Buy, TP: EUR1,800, +26%) Adyen - Winning in Unified Commerce: ...
We held a panel discussion last week focused on omnichannel commerce (what Adyen refers to as “Unified Commerce”) both from a merchant (former Nordstrom) and payments service provider perspective (Braintree PayPal). The dialogue explored the competitive landscape for payments solution providers targeting retailers like Nordstrom, considering metrics tracking and emerging trends such as loyalty programs and embedded finance offerings. Innovation was emphasized, with companies like Adyen leading i...
- Soomit Datta
ADYEN (Buy, TP: EUR1,800, +25%) Adyen - Upgrade to Buy: Moving to the...
Management has done a good job grounding near-term Adyen revenue expectations, which assume a slowdown from the Q4 run-rate (27% y/y constant FX) to the “low-end” of the growth guide (i.e. low twenties) for FY 24 . TPV can be non-linear QoQ, and hard to call in the very short-term, but on balance with easier comps we see FY upside risk here. Digital recovered in Q3 and particularly Q4, the latter period helped by a large merchant win; that this can make such a difference is a reminder of Adyen’s...
- Soomit Datta
ADYEN (Buy, TP: EUR1,800, +25%) Deep Dive into Unified Commerce - and...
As the lines between digital and physical payments blur, a strong omnichannel offering presents a significant opportunity for payment companies to differentiate themselves from their competitors today. We Deep Dive into this topic in this note, and see Adyen as very well positioned to lead Unified Commerce (omnichannel), “scoring” their efforts relative to peers (Paypal, Stripe, Block etc). We publish separately on Adyen this morning – see Adyen - Upgrade to Buy: Moving to the Top of the Guide
- Bruno Cavalier
- Konrad Zomer
AC ACCOR SA
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
SREN SWISS RE AG
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
DEMANT DEMANT A/S
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
EVD CTS EVENTIM AG & CO. KGAA
SIK SIKA AG
ADYEN ADYEN NV
- Bruno Cavalier
- Konrad Zomer
AC ACCOR SA
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
SREN SWISS RE AG
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
DEMANT DEMANT A/S
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
EVD CTS EVENTIM AG & CO. KGAA
SIK SIKA AG
ADYEN ADYEN NV
- Cor Kluis
Adyen NV : Better 2H23 result, future +20% revenue growth, 43-45% net ...
>Conclusion: Better 2H result, future 20% rev growth, 43-45% net profit margin - The 2H23 results were better than we expected, by higher than expected revenues in both Q3 and Q4, lower than expected expenses, and higher than expected net interest income. Most important is that the net revenue growth remained high at +26% in constant currencies in both 3Q23 and 4Q23. Over 2019-2023 the annual revenue growth rate was +25% and we expect this to be about +20% the coming ...
- Michael Roeg
- Baptiste Salaville
- Emira Sagaama
- Jerôme Bodin
SQ SQUARE INC. CLASS A
PYPL PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC
NEX NEXANS SA
SHA SCHAEFFLER AG
SAVE SAVENCIA SA
MAREL MAREL HF.
NDA AURUBIS AG
ALVIV VISIATIV SA
SLIGR SLIGRO FOOD GROUP N.V.
WLN WORLDLINE SA
ADYEN ADYEN NV
NEXI NEXI S.P.A.
PRX PROSUS N.V. CLASS N
BAR BARCO NV
BLV BELIEVE SA
IVG IVECO GROUP
- Baptiste Salaville
- Emira Sagaama
- Jerôme Bodin
EDEN EDENRED SA
SQ SQUARE INC. CLASS A
PYPL PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC
NEX NEXANS SA
SHA SCHAEFFLER AG
SAVE SAVENCIA SA
MAREL MAREL HF.
NDA AURUBIS AG
ALVIV VISIATIV SA
SLIGR SLIGRO FOOD GROUP N.V.
WLN WORLDLINE SA
ADYEN ADYEN NV
NEXI NEXI S.P.A.
PRX PROSUS N.V. CLASS N
BAR BARCO NV
FAST FASTNED
BLV BELIEVE SA
IVG IVECO GROUP
- Baptiste Salaville
- Benoit Valleaux
- Bruno Cavalier
- Emira Sagaama
- Steven Gould
EDEN EDENRED SA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SQ SQUARE INC. CLASS A
PYPL PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
WLN WORLDLINE SA
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
ADYEN ADYEN NV
AKZA AKZO NOBEL N.V.
NEXI NEXI S.P.A.
PRX PROSUS N.V. CLASS N
- Baptiste Salaville
- Benoit Valleaux
- Bruno Cavalier
- Emira Sagaama
- Steven Gould
EDEN EDENRED SA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SQ SQUARE INC. CLASS A
PYPL PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
WLN WORLDLINE SA
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
ADYEN ADYEN NV
AKZA AKZO NOBEL N.V.
NEXI NEXI S.P.A.
PRX PROSUS N.V. CLASS N
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
ODDO : Nexi/Worldline preview: valuation still attractive but limited ...
>Likelihood of welcome surprises limited for this reporting season - target prices revised down to € 9.5 (vs € 10) for Nexi and € 18 (vs € 20) for Worldline - Ahead of the 2023 earnings publications, we have revised down our EPS forecasts by 2%/5% for Nexi and 5%/6% for Worldline for 2023 and 2024. We understand that household spending was disappointing over the festive period, which is likely to prompt the groups to adopt a cautious stance with regards to the announc...
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
ODDO : Preview Nexi/Worldline : valorisation toujours attractive mais ...
>Potentiel de bonnes surprises limité sur cette saison de publications – OC révisés en baisse à 9,5 € (vs 10 €) pour Nexi et 18 € (vs 20 €) pour Worldline - En amont des résultats 2023, nous révisons en baisse nos attentes de BPA de 2/5% pour Nexi et 5/6% pour Worldline sur 2023/2024. Nous comprenons que les dépenses des ménages ont été décevantes pendant la période de Noël, ce qui devrait pousser les deux groupes à adopter une position prudente au moment de l’annonce...
- Paul Charpentier
Reassuring figures but largely priced in
Yesterday's print was a beat across the board with revenues, EBITDA and EPS coming in respectively 1.5%, 9.0% and 22.0% above consensus expectations. While our fears were mostly overdone and call for an upward revision in estimates, the stock price, that soared by over 21% yesterday, already captur
- Soomit Datta
- Emmanuel Matot
FP TOTAL SE
PUB PUBLICIS GROUPE SA
IPN IPSEN SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
DG VINCI SA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
ULVR UNILEVER PLC
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
AMUN AMUNDI SA
ISP INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
GN GN STORE NORD A/S
SOI SOITEC SA
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
UCG UNICREDIT S.P.A.
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
SIE SIEMENS AG
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
ADYEN ADYEN NV
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Emmanuel Matot
FP TOTAL SE
PUB PUBLICIS GROUPE SA
IPN IPSEN SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
DG VINCI SA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
ULVR UNILEVER PLC
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
AMUN AMUNDI SA
ISP INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
GN GN STORE NORD A/S
SOI SOITEC SA
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
UCG UNICREDIT S.P.A.
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
SIE SIEMENS AG
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
ADYEN ADYEN NV
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Cor Kluis
Adyen NV : H2 earnings and revenue higher than expected, high growth p...
>Conclusion: H2 profit and revenue higher than expected, high double digith growth pace continues - The 2H23 earnings were higher than expected. This was driven by a higher than expected net revenue, a higher than expected TPV, and a higher than expected interest income (which is quite material part of the profits). Especially after the weak H1 results these good H2 results are a good relief and shows that the company is able to well with stand the competition and k...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
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