reports
- Christophe-Raphaël Ganet
- Marc Lavaud
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Christophe-Raphaël Ganet
- Marc Lavaud
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Cor Kluis
Adyen NV : The >20% revenue growth path is continuing well
>Conclusion: The >20% revenue growth path is continuing well - The 3Q24 net revenue growth of +21% yoy (cc) was 1-2pp less than we expected. As a consequence of the reduction of business of one single low revenue (high TPV / low take rate) client the Q3 TPV was lower and the take rate was higher. Most important is that the revenue growth remains at the >+20% level. The limited FTE growth and focus on profitable clients increases our confidence in the EBITDA margin exp...
- Soomit Datta
NEXI Q3 (Neutral, TP: EUR7.2, +24%)/ Euro Payments wrap; Legacy limpin...
Volumes continue to be soft, if stable, for “legacy” players with Nexi reporting 3% y/y volume growth in Q3 (as in Q2) - identical trends to Worldline (see Q3 write up HERE) . Adyen volumes are of course well ahead; whilst legacy players confront macro pressures, and more, Adyen’s ability to gain share is both notable – and indeed essential for the equity story.
- Soomit Datta
ADYEN US (BUY, TP: EUR1,700, +28%) Adyen - Q3 and a volatile day; cal...
After a rollercoaster day, the stock seems to have landed in a sensible place: small miss, small down. We thought the earnings call was solid, as good as we were likely to get, management sounding confident on accelerating growth into FY 25.
- Benoit Valleaux
- Emira Sagaama
- Steven Gould
SOON SONOVA HOLDING AG
LRC LEGRAND
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
ENGI ENGIE SA.
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
CA CARREFOUR SA
CBK COMMERZBANK AG
SW SODEXO SA
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
HEI HEIDELBERGCEMENT AG
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
ENEL ENEL SPA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
RAA RATIONAL AG
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
AMS AMADEUS IT GROUP SA CLASS A
AUTO AUTO TRADER GROUP PLC
DHER DELIVERY HERO SE
ADYEN ADYEN NV
DTG DAIMLER TRUCK
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
TEN TENARIS S.A.
QGEN QIAGEN N.V.
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
- Benoit Valleaux
- Emira Sagaama
- Steven Gould
SOON SONOVA HOLDING AG
LRC LEGRAND
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
ENGI ENGIE SA.
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
CA CARREFOUR SA
CBK COMMERZBANK AG
SW SODEXO SA
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
HEI HEIDELBERGCEMENT AG
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
ENEL ENEL SPA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
RAA RATIONAL AG
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
AMS AMADEUS IT GROUP SA CLASS A
AUTO AUTO TRADER GROUP PLC
DHER DELIVERY HERO SE
ADYEN ADYEN NV
DTG DAIMLER TRUCK
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
TEN TENARIS S.A.
QGEN QIAGEN N.V.
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
- Cor Kluis
Adyen NV : Net revenue growth +21% cc being -just- 1% less than expect...
>Conclusion: Net revenue growth +21% cc being -just- 1% less than expected - The 3Q24 net revenue growth was +21% cc being -just- 1% less than expected. We understand that with a high growth company even 1% less is relevant but we do not have to change our revenue estimates for the future in any material way. We keep our Outperform as the +21% constant revenue growth show the business model is working well. Net revenue growth Q3 +21% at cc vs +22% expect...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Soomit Datta
ADYEN (BUY, TP: EUR1,700, +25%) Adyen Q3 outlook: Maintain BUY on bea...
Following solid H1s, and a rare and supportive near-term steer for H2, consensus expectations have stayed pretty rooted to the bottom of the guide range for revenue for both Q3 (reported Thursday/tomorrow) and Q4 (21%, 20% y/y respectively). Downside risk to estimates for H2 looks limited.
- Soomit Datta
PYPL US (BUY, TP: $100, +25%) PayPal - Pillar Two tax / EPS risk for F...
We spoke to PayPal today for a broader Q3 wrap but specifically also to focus on Pillar Two, given this tax angle is the current topic du jour (and following Mastercard’s guide last week) and given market whispers that 10% of PayPal EPS could be at risk from FY 25. Such extreme estimates seem a stretch.
- Soomit Datta
Money 20/20 USA - Key takeaways
While still recovering from the whirlwind of information we’re taking an initial crack at summarizing some of the key takeaways from attending the annual Money 20/20 USA jamboree in Las Vegas last week. While the subject of many discussions was quite predictable—did anybody mention AI?— insight came from conversations around ROI considerations for AI, Open banking/finance use cases and compliance, Real-time payments and the ever-present issue of Fraud.
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
PYPL US (BUY, TP: $100, +25%) Healthy Q3 beat; sneak preview for FY 25...
PayPal reported solid Q3s, coming in ahead of expectations: 4% at transaction margin $ and 11% at non-GAAP EPS. FY guidance for 2024 was lifted, and consensus will move up, although less so for Q4 once higher higher investment costs are factored in.
- Soomit Datta
WLN (Neutral, TP: EUR8.5, +30%) NEXI (Neutral, TP: EUR7.2, +20%) ADYEN...
It’s tough times in European payments for Nexi and, in particular, Worldline. Market conditions aren’t helping (though volume growth at V/MA is pretty robust), structural share loss is more the issue (including to Adyen). It’s hard to see this picture unwinding any time soon – and hard to get behind the stocks on a structural basis. Following three profit warnings this year, however, the equity to watch is Worldline.
- Soomit Datta
PYPL US (BUY, TP: $100, +28%) PayPal - Everywhere CAC/LTV modeling, A...
We are pushing up our mid-term TM$ estimates on PayPal. Whilst remaining very constructive on Fastlane as a key product driver (see Faster Lane, bigger destination, Aug 20th), we are incorporating stronger debit adoption into estimates, modelling in more detail the direct and flywheel effects of PayPal Everywhere (and indirectly Venmo) and looking in more detail at how CAC/LTV can make sense (push back has been on the 5% cash back incentive and the merit/effectiveness of reward schemes).
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
AAON AAON INC.
XHR XENIA HOTELS & RESORTS INC.
WLDN WILLDAN GROUP
TSLA TESLA INC
TPC TUTOR PERINI CORPORATION
STRL STERLING CONSTRUCTION COMPANY INC.
RYAM RAYONIER ADVANCED MATERIALS INC
RLJ RLJ LODGING TRUST
PYPL PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC
PWR QUANTA SERVICES INC.
POWL POWELL INDUSTRIES INC.
PLCE CHILDREN'S PLACE INC.
MTZ MASTEC INC.
MOD MODINE MANUFACTURING COMPANY
INN SUMMIT HOTEL PROPERTIES INC.
CLDT CHATHAM LODGING TRUST
AAOI APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS INC.
DRI DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC.
ITT ITT INC.
AGX ARGAN INC.
TG TREDEGAR CORP.
PNRG PRIMEENERGY RESOURCES
TAYD TAYLOR DEVICES INC.
TPB TURNING POINT BRANDS
USLM U.S. LIME & MINERALS
WLFC WILLIS LEASE FINANCE CORP.
USAP UNIVERSAL STAINLESS & ALLOY PRODUCTS INC.
PK PARK HOTELS & RESORTS INC.
ROAD CONSTRUCTION PARTNERS
BELFA BEL FUSE INC. CL A
AXR AMREP
SITM SITIME
IESC IES HOLDINGS INC.
VRDN VIRIDIAN THERAPEUTICS INC
COMM BMO GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS INDEX ETF
JXN JACKSON FINANCIAL INC
PCT PURECYCLE TECHNOLOGIES INC
COHR COHERENT CORP
MBC_w MASTERBRAND INC
CRVO CERVOMED INC
DAVE DAVE INC
SOC SABLE OFFSHORE CORP
FTCO FORTITUDE GOLD
DOGZ DOGNESS INTERNATIONAL CORP
- Soomit Datta
PYPL US (BUY, TP: $85, +24%) ADYEN (BUY, TP: EUR1,700) SQ US (Neutral,...
We continue our series of Deep dives into Payments (see previous: Unified Commerce, and Rise of the Merchants) with a look at Real Time Payment (RTP) developments. Adoption has been rapid on a global basis, notably at the consumer level in markets like Brazil, though is a significant laggard in the US. Momentum here is, however, slowly building through FedNow (launched only in 2023) with banks/FIs stalling, but with consumer demand we think high and with a Visa/Mastercard interchange settlement ...
- Soomit Datta
PYPL US (BUY, TP: $85, +25%) PayPal Everywhere? Well, almost there..
PayPal at the end of last week presented “PayPal Everywhere”, with “new rich rewards and in-store access” which, according to the release, will “...transform PayPal into a single solution for every type of customer everywhere they shop”. A quick read of the headline might suggest that PayPal is (finally) becoming available for in-store payments. Perhaps even somehow already taking advantage of Apple’s recently announced opening up of access to the NFC chip (and “Secure Element”) for 3rd parties,...
- Soomit Datta
PYPL (BUY, TP: $85 ($80), +25%) PayPal - Faster lane, bigger destinat...
With Fastlane a key driver of our positive view on the stock we update our thinking for latest commentary and aspirations here following Q2s (see note here) noting that being processor agnostic changes the way we’re looking at things (not bad, potentially better). We also run through Apple’s key news regarding access to its NFC chip (and “Secure Element”) for 3rd parties in multiple geographies from August 14th – the start of a journey which should allow PayPal to plug the hole in-store/anywhere...
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