reports
- Soomit Datta
WLN (Neutral, TP: EUR8.5, +30%) NEXI (Neutral, TP: EUR7.2, +20%) ADYEN...
It’s tough times in European payments for Nexi and, in particular, Worldline. Market conditions aren’t helping (though volume growth at V/MA is pretty robust), structural share loss is more the issue (including to Adyen). It’s hard to see this picture unwinding any time soon – and hard to get behind the stocks on a structural basis. Following three profit warnings this year, however, the equity to watch is Worldline.
- Soomit Datta
PYPL US (BUY, TP: $100, +28%) PayPal - Everywhere CAC/LTV modeling, A...
We are pushing up our mid-term TM$ estimates on PayPal. Whilst remaining very constructive on Fastlane as a key product driver (see Faster Lane, bigger destination, Aug 20th), we are incorporating stronger debit adoption into estimates, modelling in more detail the direct and flywheel effects of PayPal Everywhere (and indirectly Venmo) and looking in more detail at how CAC/LTV can make sense (push back has been on the 5% cash back incentive and the merit/effectiveness of reward schemes).
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
AAON AAON INC.
XHR XENIA HOTELS & RESORTS INC.
WLDN WILLDAN GROUP
TSLA TESLA INC
TPC TUTOR PERINI CORPORATION
STRL STERLING CONSTRUCTION COMPANY INC.
RYAM RAYONIER ADVANCED MATERIALS INC
RLJ RLJ LODGING TRUST
PYPL PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC
PWR QUANTA SERVICES INC.
POWL POWELL INDUSTRIES INC.
PLCE CHILDREN'S PLACE INC.
MTZ MASTEC INC.
MOD MODINE MANUFACTURING COMPANY
INN SUMMIT HOTEL PROPERTIES INC.
CLDT CHATHAM LODGING TRUST
AAOI APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS INC.
DRI DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC.
ITT ITT INC.
AGX ARGAN INC.
TG TREDEGAR CORP.
PNRG PRIMEENERGY RESOURCES
TAYD TAYLOR DEVICES INC.
TPB TURNING POINT BRANDS
USLM U.S. LIME & MINERALS
WLFC WILLIS LEASE FINANCE CORP.
USAP UNIVERSAL STAINLESS & ALLOY PRODUCTS INC.
PK PARK HOTELS & RESORTS INC.
ROAD CONSTRUCTION PARTNERS
BELFA BEL FUSE INC. CL A
AXR AMREP
SITM SITIME
IESC IES HOLDINGS INC.
VRDN VIRIDIAN THERAPEUTICS INC
COMM BMO GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS INDEX ETF
JXN JACKSON FINANCIAL INC
PCT PURECYCLE TECHNOLOGIES INC
COHR COHERENT CORP
MBC_w MASTERBRAND INC
CRVO CERVOMED INC
DAVE DAVE INC
SOC SABLE OFFSHORE CORP
FTCO FORTITUDE GOLD
DOGZ DOGNESS INTERNATIONAL CORP
- Soomit Datta
PYPL US (BUY, TP: $85, +24%) ADYEN (BUY, TP: EUR1,700) SQ US (Neutral,...
We continue our series of Deep dives into Payments (see previous: Unified Commerce, and Rise of the Merchants) with a look at Real Time Payment (RTP) developments. Adoption has been rapid on a global basis, notably at the consumer level in markets like Brazil, though is a significant laggard in the US. Momentum here is, however, slowly building through FedNow (launched only in 2023) with banks/FIs stalling, but with consumer demand we think high and with a Visa/Mastercard interchange settlement ...
- Soomit Datta
PYPL US (BUY, TP: $85, +25%) PayPal Everywhere? Well, almost there..
PayPal at the end of last week presented “PayPal Everywhere”, with “new rich rewards and in-store access” which, according to the release, will “...transform PayPal into a single solution for every type of customer everywhere they shop”. A quick read of the headline might suggest that PayPal is (finally) becoming available for in-store payments. Perhaps even somehow already taking advantage of Apple’s recently announced opening up of access to the NFC chip (and “Secure Element”) for 3rd parties,...
- Soomit Datta
PYPL (BUY, TP: $85 ($80), +25%) PayPal - Faster lane, bigger destinat...
With Fastlane a key driver of our positive view on the stock we update our thinking for latest commentary and aspirations here following Q2s (see note here) noting that being processor agnostic changes the way we’re looking at things (not bad, potentially better). We also run through Apple’s key news regarding access to its NFC chip (and “Secure Element”) for 3rd parties in multiple geographies from August 14th – the start of a journey which should allow PayPal to plug the hole in-store/anywhere...
- Cor Kluis
Adyen NV : 1H24 revenue growth & profit in line, durable competitive a...
>Conclusion:1H24 revenue growth & profit in line, durable competitive advantage - The 1H24 revenues were in line with expectations, so the high >20% revenue growth pace continued in 2Q24. It was positive that the company provided a new guidance of about +21/+22% net revenue growth for 2H24. In 1H24 Europe and North America showed a good revenue growth, but Asia and LatAm not (yet). Asia and LatAm are more for the longer term growth. The 1H24 net profit was in line wi...
- Soomit Datta
ADYEN (BUY, TP: EUR1,700, +33%) Adyen post-call: FY 24 consensus like...
A solid call from the company and specifically we would highlight the commentary on H2 24 revenue growth being lower than H1 (23.5%) - and as expected – BUT not dropping below the low end of the guide range of low to mid-twenties. Given where consensus has slipped to (21.4%), and taking 21.0% as “low twenties” (could be higher), this would imply a lift to consensus revenue in the range of 0.8-2.2pp for this year. Elsewhere we liked the focus on TCO and in particular clear messaging on debit rout...
- Soomit Datta
ADYEN (BUY, TP: EUR1,700, +40%) Adyen H1 24 - Solid print, nice lift ...
After recent volatility in quarterly operational performance, Adyen H1s were solid and drama free: revenue and EBITDA came in 1% ahead of expectations. Share gains (group volumes +45% y/y) continue to offset any dampening in broader US consumer spend. Revenue growth accelerated from 21% y/y in Q1 to 26% in Q2, with Q2 enjoying the easier comp (given US travails last year) but with a nice lift in EMEA growth also and allowing the company to reiterate the low to high twenties revenue growth guide ...
- Cor Kluis
Adyen NV : Marginally better, growth Q2 higher than Q1, positive relie...
>Conclusion: Marginally better, growth Q2 higher than Q1, positive relief - The 1H24 Adyen results were marginally better than consensus and in line with our expectations. Most important was that the net revenue top line did not show any slowdown, and that as expected the Q2 growth rate was even somewhat higher than Q1 growth rate. After some stress the last few times that Adyen reported results we expect this is a positive relief for the market. We keep our Outperfo...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Lewi
- Soomit Datta
PYPL US (Buy, TP: $80, +25%) PayPal Q2 24 - Beat and raise; Fastlane ...
PayPal reported very strong Q2s, with Transaction margin $ 7% ahead of expectations, and growing 8% y/y, in turn driving a 21% non-GAAP EPS beat. All key guidance indicators for FY 24 are lifted. TM % growth is supported by a return to growth in Unbranded, a solid performance from Branded and from Venmo and ~3pp of growth from interest income.
- Aurelien Deside
- Paul Charpentier
- Soomit Datta
ADYEN (Buy, TP: EUR1,700, +50%) Stripe at $70 billion - What's this m...
Following Sequoia's private market offer implying a $70 billion valuation for Stripe, it's striking that Adyen's trading EV is just $39 billion. Both companies (2023) process similar volumes (~$1 trillion) and growth has been broadly similar (Adyen's very recently ramping on lower Cash App take rates). Profitability at Stripe, however, is assumed to be much lower (loss-making in 2022).
- Soomit Datta
PYPL US (Buy, TP: $80, +33%) ADYEN (Buy, TP: EUR1,800, +58%) Visa-Ma...
On June 25, a federal judge in Brooklyn, NY formally blocked the $30 Billion Swipe-Fee Deal involving Visa / MasterCard and retailers, with a written statement published a few days later (28 June). In this short follow-up to our previous note Rise of the Merchants (19 April), where we discussed interchange and this theme in detail, and with the market mainly focusing on implications for V/MA, we look also at how this relates to PSPs, PayPal and Adyen, and what’s next.
- Paul Charpentier
- Thomas Hynes
Have payments hit bottom yet?
In October 2023, we adopted a negative view on the payment sector, citing commoditisation risks and a bleak macroeconomic outlook as threats to the companies in our coverage. While commoditisation remains a concern, we are now more optimistic about the macro environment. To answer the initial quest
- Paul Charpentier
Have payments hit the bottom yet ? - Adyen
In October 2023, we adopted a negative view on the payment sector, citing commoditization risks and a bleak macroeconomic outlook as threats to the companies in our coverage. While commoditization remains a concern, we are now more optimistic about the macro. To answer the initial question, we beli
- Soomit Datta
PYPL US (Buy, TP: $80, +33%) PayPal: Apple Pay on 3rd-party browser -...
Having spent the week discussing Apple Pay’s recent (WWDC) initiatives with investors on the road we draw some firmer conclusions. The short thesis on PYPL since the announcement has focused largely on the 3rd party browser (non-Safari)/non-MacOS launch (rather than the BNPL/rewards/incentives).
- Soomit Datta
PYPL US (Buy, TP: $80, +23%) PayPal - Apple Pay features update: Impl...
Apple yesterday announced the launch of a number of additional features to Apple Pay, including BNPL/instalment plans, rewards/incentives and access to third party browsers. Apple Pay is something we addressed for PayPal in our initiation, PayPal - Life in the Fast Lane, and PayPal’s personalisation efforts on Branded – as highlighted again yesterday at an investor conference by CFO Jamie Miller – remain hard for Apple to match as a pass-through wallet.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
PYPL PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC
LAKE LAKELAND INDUSTRIES INC.
ARMK ARAMARK
ARLP ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS L.P.
TREE LENDINGTREE INC.
UNFI UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC.
AEHR AEHR TEST SYSTEMS
HOV HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES INC. CLASS A
PLMR PALOMAR HOLDINGS
AHCO ADAPTHEALTH
HOOD ROBINHOOD MARKETS INC
ASTS AST SPACEMOBILE INC
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC.
SJM JM SMUCKER CO COM
QXO QXO INC COM
INSG INSEEGO CORP.
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