E-commerce traffic - October 2024

Taking action on the AOV decline

17% EBIT beat if adjusting for CEO departure

Quality just got cheaper

Few signs of a market recovery

Boozt (Hold, TP: SEK115.00) - Q3 miss highlights Q4 uncertainty

Despite the weak Q3 results, management reiterated its full-year guidance, implying a strong finish to the year. However, given its YTD performance and Q4 facing very tough YOY comparables, we see a risk of Boozt missing the mid-point of its adj. EBIT guidance (we expect it to be at the bottom end). We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK115 (120), mainly on our lower estimates.

Boozt (Hold, TP: SEK120.00) - Weak Q3, unchanged guidance

We consider this a weak report for Boozt, including Q3 figures significantly below consensus, reflecting a weak gross margin, and unchanged 2024 guidance. We expect consensus 2024e adj. EBIT to come down c3–5% on the Q3 results and believe a negative share price reaction is warranted.

Guides for a strong end of year

September was not enough to save Q1

E-handelsindikatorn +28% y-o-y for September

Lost sales growth to be found in Q4

Q3: slowdown across geographies

Strong online fashion markets in Q3

Q3e: back to AOV growth

Q3e: 15% org. growth on tough comps

Already outgrowing the market by 20pp

E-commerce traffic - September 2024

Boozt (Hold, TP: SEK120.00) - Benign weather, tough comparables

We are neutral ahead of the Q3 results, expecting adj. EBIT in line with consensus. We forecast continued good sales growth despite tough comparables and a drag on the gross margin due to still-reduced campaign buys. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK120 target price.

Lyko Group (Sell, TP: SEK95.00) - Waiting for further positive signs

For Q3, we are slightly above consensus on EBIT but below on net profit. We expect Lyko’s results to be weighed down by continuously high financial costs. In our view, focus will remain on its European market, the efforts to improve its group gross margin, and the cash flow position (net debt/EBITDA of c4.4x at end-Q2). We reiterate our SELL and SEK95 target price, reflecting its stretched balance sheet and our belief that it will take time to properly balance growth and profitability.

E-handelsindikatorn +1% for August