Sparebanken Sør (Buy, TP: NOK162.00) - Robust Q1 profitability

Boosted by the tax benefit of customer dividends, strong trading income and low loan losses, SOR reported a Q1 ROE of 14.4%. Despite some pressure on deposit margins from high levels, NII rose 1.1% QOQ, helped by improved lending margins and solid corporate growth. Driven by the latter and a raised ownership share in Brage, the CET1 ratio fell by ~20bp QOQ to 16.6% (requirement including P2G reduced to 15.9%). At a 2025e P/E of ~8.6x, we find the valuation undemanding and reiterate our BUY and N...

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Consensus back in focus and tier-2 deepwater risk

With the start of the Q1 reporting season for Offshore Drilling, we sense increased investor attention on the risk to consensus. Although we like the investment case for its valuation in the out-years (2026), our estimates remain below consensus. We see potential for share price volatility as near-term consensus is revised lower, while investors gradually underwrite 2026 valuations. We also believe the gaps between contracts and increased idle-time risk for tier-2 deepwater rigs are not properly...

Boozt (Hold, TP: SEK135.00) - Spring/summer sales out of fashion

Q1 earnings missed consensus by 13%, reflecting a weak start to spring/summer sales; however, Boozt reiterated its full-year revenue and EBIT margin guidance. That said, uncertainty is still high (reflected in the wide guidance range), with Nordic consumer confidence still subdued. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK135 (140) on our lower estimates.

Ready for spring

Softer top line as campaign goods are scarce. We raise '25e-'26e adj. EBIT by 1-2%. Share trading at 15x '24e EV/EBIT, we reiterate BUY.

SSAB AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at SSAB AB bought 15,813 shares at between 60.100SEK and 61.060SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last t...

SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK134.00) - Turn in NII momentum

Helped by strong trading income, HELG reported a Q1 ROE of ~12% versus its >11% target, despite the pre-announced elevated loan losses. With one less interest day and margin pressure, ‘real NII’ fell 2.2% QOQ. While down QOQ, the CET1 ratio remained solid at 18.1% (>16.5% target). We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by ~3–5%, driven by lower NII, and lowered our target price to NOK134 (139). Trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.0x, we continue to find a more attractive risk/reward elsewhere in the sector and...

Boozt (Hold, TP: SEK140.00) - Soft start to 2024

We consider this a weak report for Boozt, including Q1 figures slightly below consensus and a very weak FCF. We expect consensus 2024e adj. EBIT to come down c1–3% on the weaker than expected figures and a negative share price reaction.

Strong data sales is the highlight

SSAB (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Impressive earnings resilience

Q1 proved another solid quarter, aided by impressive earnings resilience in SSAB Special Steels and SSAB Europe. While we have lowered our 2024-25 forecasts for SSAB Americas, this is offset by a more positive view on SSAB Special Steels and SSAB Europe, meaning our group earnings are largely unchanged. We reiterate our BUY, but given the stock is now trading ex-dividend (DPS of SEK5), we have lowered our target price to SEK100 (SEK105).

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 24/04/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/24/2024

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SSAB : Sound Q1 results thanks to Special Steels and Europe, decent Q2...

>Q1 a strong beat on Europe and Special Steels, Americas more underwhelming - SSAB delivered better-than-expected Q1 results with EBITDA at SEK 4.1bn, 18% > consensus and 26% > ODDO BHF. The beat was essentially driven by the Special Steels division which achieved SEK 2.1bn of EBITDA, 45% > consensus on very sound volume growth (+17% q-o-q) as good demand in material handling offset weakness in construction. Europe also outperformed with EBITDA at SEK 0.6bn, 44% > con...

SSAB : Sound Q1 results thanks to Special Steels and Europe, decent Q2...

>Q1 a strong beat on Europe and Special Steels, Americas more underwhelming - SSAB delivered better-than-expected Q1 results with EBITDA at SEK 4.1bn, 18% > consensus and 26% > ODDO BHF. The beat was essentially driven by the Special Steels division which achieved SEK 2.1bn of EBITDA, 45% > consensus on very sound volume growth (+17% q-o-q) as good demand in material handling offset weakness in construction. Europe also outperformed with EBITDA at SEK 0.6bn, 44% > con...

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK139.00) - Set for elevated loan lo...

With cNOK55m (58bp) of pre-announced loan losses, but prospects for solid revenue momentum, we expect a Q1 ROE of 11.0%, in line with its >11% target. With ample ~2.2%-points headroom to its capital requirement (including a 1% management buffer) at end-2023, we see scope for payout ratios of >80% over our forecast horizon. That said, with the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~8.7x, we continue to find a more attractive risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered o...

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Limited change in EP spending

After reviewing oil companies’ most recent spending plans, we estimate offshore spending growth of c7% YOY for 2024, in line with our November update. Growth is concentrated, with Petrobras being the key driver, favouring service companies with Brazil exposure. Looking ahead, further spending growth is likely to be partly limited by total spending already being on a par with operating cash flow. Delayed energy transition spending is seen as positive for oil services, while recent E&P consolidati...

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.