Getinge (Hold, TP: SEK210.00) - More of the same

We expect Q1 revenues of cSEK7.7bn and an adj. EBITA margin of c9.8% – basically in line with consensus. Given the issues in Getinge, with packaging in ACT seemingly solved later than previously assumed, it is fair to assume the negative impact will continue into Q1 and Q2 at least. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK210 target price. The Q1 report is due at 08:00 CET on 22 April.

Getinge (Hold, TP: SEK210.00) - Limited visibility on 2024

Getinge reported weaker than expected Q4 earnings. The guidance for 2024 related only to sales (and sales was the only bright spot in the Q4 report). Thus, the company left the market in the dark, to a large extent, as to the margin trend for 2024. In Q4, the gross margin missed consensus by c270bp and the adj. EBITA margin by c180bp. The quality issues within cardiopulmonary will most likely not be resolved until H2. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK210 (225).

Getinge (Hold, TP: SEK225.00) - Some margin pressure in LS

We expect decent Q4 earnings, but with margin pressure in Life Science (LS) due to the addition of High Purity New England (HPNE) and good growth in its (lower-margin) steriliser operation. We expect Getinge’s 2024 guidance to be in line with 2023 (i.e. organic growth of 3–5%) and a medium-term guidance update later in H1. We reiterate our HOLD, but have increased our target price to SEK225 (215).

Getinge (Hold, TP: SEK215.00) - Solid Q3

Getinge beat consensus on all lines in Q3, except for order intake, which was basically in line with expectations. The 2023 guidance was maintained, which together with order intake that (although in line) was down YOY, in our view made investors more cautious on the company’s outlook. We believe management is merely being cautious and that organic sales growth should be at the upper end of the 2023 guidance. We reiterate our HOLD but have increased our target price to SEK215 (210) on our estima...

Getinge (Hold, TP: SEK210.00) - We expect an in-line quarter

We are in line with consensus ahead of the Q3 results due at c08:00 CET on 23 October. We expect weak demand in the biopharma industry to have hampered Life Science, but a decent quarter for ACT, driven by ECMO and IABPs. We do not expect the turmoil in China to have had a marked effect on Getinge. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK210 target price.

Getinge (Hold, TP: SEK210.00) - Q2 broadly in line

Reported Q2 earnings were broadly in line with consensus (even though they were below our forecast). There will be some negative effect on coming quarters as well from quality issues even though the impact is likely to be smaller than in Q2. One positive item in the report was the fact that the company has already regained its suspended CE mark for its IABPs. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK210 (215) after our forecast adjustments.

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Getinge (Hold, TP: SEK215.00) - Another profit warning on quality

Getinge said it will incur cSEK400m in additional costs for scrapping, quality issues and remediation in Q2, with related costs set to spill over into H2. We believe investors will stay on the sidelines in the coming quarters, as uncertainty remains high and they are reminded of the company’s poor communication about the initial FDA-related issues in late 2014. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to SEK215 (295).

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Getinge (Buy, TP: SEK295.00) - Strong start to the year

Q1 brought a solid earnings beat, and supply issues seem to be easing, while we believe underlying procedure volumes are increasing. However, Getinge was still cautious on Q2, but more positive on H2. We believe demand is normalising faster than previously expected, and that cost and price initiatives are starting to bear fruit. We have upgraded Getinge to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to SEK295 (245).

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Getinge (Hold, TP: SEK245.00) - Q1 probably in line with consensus

We believe Getinge will achieve Q1 earnings in line with the post-Q4 consensus. Compared to consensus, we forecast a higher gross margin but also higher operating expenses; however, our adj. EBITA and adj. EBITA margin are in line. Overall, we expect H1 to be weak and for H2 to see an uptick in earnings. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK245 target price.

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Getinge (Hold, TP: SEK245.00) - 2023 set to be back-end loaded

Q4 earnings were broadly in line with expectations, with slightly stronger sales but a slightly weaker adj. EBITA margin. The 2023 guidance is for 2–5% organic sales growth, and management indicated it expected a small margin improvement in the year, basically in line with consensus. It also expects 2023 to be back-end loaded, with a tougher comparable in H1 than H2. We reiterate our HOLD, but have edged up our target price to SEK245 (240) after making minor estimate changes following the Q4 rep...

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Getinge (Hold, TP: SEK240.00) - Downgraded to HOLD

The Q4 results are due at 08:00 CET on 1 February. We expect a soft quarter, and H1 to continue in the same vein. Getinge lowered its 2022 targets in connection with the Q3 report, but in our view its longer-term (2025) targets are at risk unless the market trend turns clearly positive in the next few quarters. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to SEK240 (280).

Getinge - The good, the bad, the ugly

The good: no restrictions from the FDA The bad: higher costs to linger The ugly: regulatory compliance remains an issue

Getinge - Influenza data suggests more severe season

Hospitalisations are 5x higher than normal Lack of herd immunity behind higher transmission Early on, but could lift ACT sales

Sector Fast Comment - Hospital data update

Better hospital margins in September Weaker procedure volume momentum into Q4 Small positive for capex exposure