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Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

OPEC+ sticking to plan

OPEC+ announced today it will stick to its previous output plan and lift production quotas by 400kbpd in January, in large part due to the Technical Committee reducing its forecast for a supply surplus in Q1 2022. Analysts’ expectations had built up prior to the meeting, believing that OPEC+ could consider reducing the production quota. By sticking to plan, OPEC+ provides much needed assistance to a crude tanker market in the doldrums, as VLCC earnings remain at 30-year lows. However, uncertaint...

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Hunter Group (Hold, TP: NOK3.30) - Back to black

Following the Q3 results, we have made minor changes to our estimates, as both the results and updated charter rate guidance were largely in line with expectations. Current spot rates of USD22k/day should see the company’s results return to the black, as our estimates imply that the worst is behind us. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK3.3 target price.

Petter Haugen ... (+2)
  • Petter Haugen
  • Torjus Loftheim

Hunter Group - Waiting for the market upswing

Q3 EBITDA of USD 4.1m (cons. USD 4m) 94% of VLCC Q4 days fixed at 26.6k per day TP NOK 5.5 (NOK 5.7)

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Hunter Group (Hold, TP: NOK3.30) - Earnings differential rising

We have updated our estimates for rising fuel prices, yielding an increasing advantage for Hunter’s modern, scrubber-fitted tonnage. For Q3, the crude tanker fleet saw negative growth, and despite recent momentum, freight markets remain depressed, as global crude oil exports failed to materialise in line with OPEC+ increased production quotas. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lifted our target price to NOK3.3 (2.9).

Petter Haugen ... (+2)
  • Petter Haugen
  • Torjus Loftheim

Hunter Group - Ready for big game season

One-year forward NAV 5.7 NOK/share Expected 2021 EBITDA of 29m, in line with consensus Rating upgraded to BUY (Hold), TP to NOK 5.7 (2.3)

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Hunter Group (Hold, TP: NOK2.90) - Steady as she goes

The Q2 results brought no surprises, and we have lifted our EBITDA estimates by an average of 4% on lower costs. With 95% of Q3 booked at USD19.2k/day, Hunter Group has effectively bridged what we view as the toughest quarter near-term. This, coupled with its modern, scrubber-fitted assets, should ensure limited cash burn near-term. We reiterate our HOLD and have trimmed our target price to NOK2.9 (3).

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Hunter Group (Hold, TP: NOK3.00) - Minor revisions ahead of Q2

Ahead of the Q2 report, we have made minor estimate revisions that in turn led to a 3% cut in our 2021e EBITDA on the prolonged market weakness. In our view, the crude tanker market trough is behind us, but we expect the adverse market conditions to remain for some time as volumes gradually return. Should scrapping pick up towards year-end, we see upside potential for our crude tanker peer group given current valuations and continued support for asset values from the commodities upcycle. We reit...

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Financing 2°C Shipping - Financial risk of future regulations

We have worked with KLP and other partners in the Green Shipping Programme to assess the risk for financial stakeholders in various shipping technologies within the VLCC, Capesize and 10k TEU container segments. We find: 1) relative attractiveness of short-dated assets with scrubbers; 2) high uncertainty among newbuild alternatives in an uncertain regulatory environment; 3) that current IMO targets seem within reach in our base case; and 4) that further tightening of regulations is needed to ali...

Dennis Anghelopoulos ... (+2)
  • Dennis Anghelopoulos
  • Lukas Daul

Sector Fast Comment - Euronav – Q1’21 results

VLCC spot – USD 14kpd in Q1’21, USD 10kpd in Q2’21e DPS of USD 0.03 maintained Expands fleets with resales and newbuilds

Dennis Anghelopoulos ... (+2)
  • Dennis Anghelopoulos
  • Lukas Daul

Sector Fast Comment - Ageing like wine – Vintage Vs topping the menu

DHT sells three 2004-built VLCCs for USD ~28.5m per vessel Older vessels attractive due to lower obsolescence risk Dual-fuel popularity to increase as regulatory pressure mounts

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Crude Tanker Sector (DNB Markets) - Premature optimism

While we expect the tanker market to recover, the willingness to price in a strong H2 2021 is overdone in our view. Meanwhile, owners’ ample liquidity reserves should last the challenging markets. Thus, we have turned neutral on the sector and our 1-year forward NAVs are flat as asset appreciation is offset by limited cash generation. All tanker stocks are now at HOLD.

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

DNB Markets Shipping Conference: Decarbonisation takes centre stage

DNB’s 14th annual Energy & Shipping Conference culminated in yesterday’s shipping day. The main theme was decarbonisation of shipping, and its market impact today. Attendees included representatives from IMO and Trafigura, along with several shipping companies taking action towards ambitious decarbonisation targets. Also, the crude tanker and LPG panels both proved rather optimistic despite recent market lows.

Dennis Anghelopoulos ... (+2)
  • Dennis Anghelopoulos
  • Lukas Daul

Sector Fast Comment - EU moves towards pricing import emissions

EU Parliament supports carbon border adjustment Shipping emissions to come under increased scrutiny High carbon costs to support uptake of carbon-neutral fuels

Dennis Anghelopoulos ... (+2)
  • Dennis Anghelopoulos
  • Lukas Daul

Sector Fast Comment - No helping hand from OPEC

OPEC extends production current cuts through April As oil demand recovery is lagging Market headwinds remain

Frank Maaø ... (+12)
  • Frank Maaø
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Simen Mortensen
  • Jon Masdal
  • Martin Arnell
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Jesper Ingildsen
  • Jørgen Lian
  • Martin Hoang Nguyen
Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Hunter Group (Buy, TP: NOK3.10) - Still trading at a discount

Ahead of the Q4 results, we have updated our estimates on near-term headwinds and Hunter’s DPS of NOK1 following the divestment of two vessels. We believe the pace of scrapping is set to pick up, and thus see a healthier crude tanker balance once the tide turns. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK3.1, given the DPS of NOK1.

Dennis Anghelopoulos ... (+2)
  • Dennis Anghelopoulos
  • Lukas Daul

Sector Fast Comment - Euronav – Q4’20 results

VLCC spot - USD 21kpd in Q4’20 & USD 16kpd in Q1’21 New USD 50m buyback program Accelerates dry dockings in a weak market

Dennis Anghelopoulos ... (+2)
  • Dennis Anghelopoulos
  • Lukas Daul

Hunter Group - VLCC sales result in NOK 1.0 dividend

We expect Q4’20 adj. EBITDA of USD 15m We expect Q4’20 DPS of NOK 1.0 (~USD 0.12) Rating down to HOLD (Buy), TP NOK 3.8 (6.0)

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