HEADLINES: • mBank: solid 1Q24 results justify one of the top market valuations (1Q24 P/BV of 2.1x) POSITIVE • OTP Bank: books solid 1Q24, keeps 2024E guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: 1Q24 results in line • CCC: 40% EBITDA beat in 1Q24, on opex control POSITIVE • Dino: 2-7% EBITDA miss in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • AmRest: 1Q24 broadly in line with our forecasts, but below the consensus NEGATIVE • MOL: 1Q24 results – EBITDA below expectations on maintenance NEUTRAL • MedLife: 1Q24 results poin...
HEADLINES: • MONETA Money Bank: strong 1Q24 delivery, on better-than- expected revenues POSITIVE • Alior Bank: books small beat on 1Q24 delivery, driven by low credit risk charges; robust 2024E outlook supported POSITIVE • Shoper: 1Q24 adjusted EBITDA 9% above our expectations; FY23 results in line with prelims POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 4% miss vs. our 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA forecast, weak cash flows NEGATIVE • Wizz Air: fiscal 2024 post-close trading update POSITIVE • Aselsan: CEO's comments on exports...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Patria Bank: strong bottom-line beat, but lacking quality • Turkey macro: 4Q GDP expands by 4% • 4iG: 4Q23 results review – solid results, with 19% yoy pro-forma EBITDA growth NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: 4Q23 – positive gross profit in all segments, but liquidity risk on the horizon • HELLENiQ Energy: 4Q23 results – dividend proposal NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 4Q23 above our expectations POSITIVE • AmRest: key takeaways from the 4Q23 call POSITIVE • Richter: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings ...
HEADLINES • Erste Bank: 4Q23 results • AmRest: 4Q23 EBITDA in line, but earnings affected by EUR 29m goodwill write-down for Sushi Shop NEGATIVE • Text: 3Q23-24 (calendar 4Q23) results – EBITDA down 4% yoy, 10% above the consensus POSITIVE • Electrica: 4Q23 results in line with expectations NEGATIVE • Purcari Wineries: 4Q23 results and 2024E outlook in line with expectations POSITIVE • Aquila Part Prod Com: earnings beat, on lower credit losses, interest income and tax rate POSITIVE • Nuclearel...
HEADLINES: • Hidroelectrica: incorporating lower power prices (downgraded to HOLD) • MONETA Money Bank: publishes 4Q23 results, guides for CZK 9 of 2023 DPS, upgrades 2024-28E EPS guidance NEUTRAL • Akbank: 4Q23 results and 2024E guidance highlights Kazatomprom: 4Q operational update and guidance NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: SocGen may be mulling over potential sale of its Romanian subsidiary NEUTRAL • Kruk: invests EUR 212m in 1Q24E in Italy,...
EME Equity Market – December 2023 Market performance – Poland outperforms in December. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 1.9% mom in USD in December. The WIG20 Index continues to perform well in the post-elections environment and reported the strongest performance in our core region, adding 5.9% mom in EUR terms. There was also a strong performance from the Romanian BET and Hungarian BUX indices, adding 4.4% and 4.1% mom, respectively, in EUR terms; while there was a relat...
HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: preliminary FY23 results in line with guidance; cautious optimism, going forward NEUTRAL • Duna House: 3Q23 - doubling down on Italy with the Professione Casa acquisition NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: weak 3Q23, 2024E EBITDA guidance in line with our estimate • AmRest: EUR 800 refinancing agreement POSITIVE • PKO BP: can pay c.PLN 1.3/share 2022 net profit dividend POSITIVE • Poland macro: Donald Tusk nominated as Prime Minister • Fondul Proprietatea: receives binding offer ...
HEADLINES: • Cimsa: announces the completion of the 10.1% SBS shares transfer POSITIVE • InPost: PPF executes only part of the option, at this stage NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 2024E revenue growth target at 13-15% yoy NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: November sales growth decelerated to a limited 10% yoy NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (4-10 December) • Hidroelectrica: signs agreement to acquire assets and personnel from manufacturer of hydro equipment NEUTRAL • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Con...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: 3Q23 on track for best year ever, 3Q beat on better cost control POSITIVE • AmRest: 3% EBITDA beat in 3Q23 on improving margins POSITIVE • Bank of Georgia: 3Q23 highlights, before the call - good quarter • Hidroelectrica: 3Q23 net profit of RON 1.2bn, 30% higher yoy and 6% above our estimate POSITIVE • Purcari Wineries: 3Q23 net profit 27% higher than our estimate, on higher other income • Conpet: 3Q23 net profit rebounds qoq and stands 9% higher yoy POSITIVE • Tr...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: 3Q23 results solid as a rock, 25%+ ROE remains, high dividend yield possible POSITIVE • BIM: strong set of results in 3Q23 financials, beating expectations POSITIVE • Richter: 3Q23 EBITDA in line; guidance raised on strong Vraylar POSITIVE • Petkim: 3Q23 results • Eurobank: 3Q23 results • National Bank: 3Q23 results • Addiko Bank: 3Q23 results - bottom-line beat POSITIVE • Transgaz: no approval from EC for EUR 500m grants for non-priority projects NEUTRAL • Auto Par...
HEADLINES: • AmRest: 18% EBITDA beat in 2Q23 on easing costs pressure POSITIVE • Duna House: 2Q23 results - reaches EBITDA of EUR 5m in 1H23, despite adverse high-rate backdrop POSITIVE • Patria Bank: solid 2Q23 bottom line, quality could be better NEUTRAL • HELLENiQ Energy: 2Q23 results • AUGA Group: 2Q23 gross profit weaker due to higher revaluation losses of biological assets • 4iG: 2Q23 results review - solid results distorted by business transformation NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: key take...
HEADLINES: • Electrica: new regulatory period to start in 2025, with a one-year delay POSITIVE • OTE: 2Q23E results preview - soft quarter, with 2% yoy adjusted EBITDA drop (due on 3 August) • Magyar Telekom: 2Q23E preview - 15% yoy growth in adjusted EBITDA expected (due on 9 August) • Eurocash: 2Q23E results preview - 5% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 29 August) • AmRest: 2Q23E - EBITDA to drop 15% yoy on disposal of Russian business (due on 1 September, TBC) NEUTRAL • Short News (LVC)
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • Cyfrowy Polsat: 1Q23 results review - soft numbers, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • InPost: 1Q23 beat on margin recovery, FY guidance maintained, slowdown in 2Q23E POSITIVE • AmRest: disposal of the Russian operations for EUR 100m finalised POSITIVE • Transelectrica: 1Q23 results broadly in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Electrica: weaker distribution results than expected in 1Q23 NEGATIVE • Patria Bank: 1Q23 bottom line undermined by NII weakness NEGATIVE • OMV Petrom: esti...
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: bottom line is fine, but the P&L mix disappointed NEGATIVE • NLB Group: a very strong start to the year, delivering a firm beat to consensus POSITIVE • DataWalk: preliminary 1Q23 results - sales down 23% yoy, to PLN 3.22m, 9% below our estimate NEGATIVE • AmRest: 10% EBITDA beat in 1Q23 POSITIVE • Eurocash: 8% EBITDA beat in 1Q23 POSITIVE • Richter: 1Q23 results beat supported by FX POSITIVE • MOL 1Q23 results - Upstream EBITDA weaker than expected • BRD-GSG: solid ...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: making really good progress (stays BUY) • Piraeus Bank: strong 1Q23 and ever-stronger guidance POSITIVE • Banca Transilvania: 1Q23 beat, due to provision reversals • Solutions by STC: 1Q23 results - stronger growth, better margins than expected POSITIVE • OTE: 1Q23 results review - soft quarter, with 1% yoy adjusted EBITDA drop, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • OTE: key takeaways from the 1Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: 1Q23 preliminary net profit...
EME Equity Market – March 2023 Market performance – all geographies down in March. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 7.6% mom in EUR terms and 5.7% mom in USD in March. Among a sea of red, Romania’s BET saw the smallest decline (-2.6% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Czech PX Index (-5.5% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX indices saw similar declines (-7.4% and -7.5% mom ,respectively, in EUR terms), while the worst performer for the month was the Turkish ISE30, down 10.5% mo...
HEADLINES: • AmRest: discounted valuation call (upgraded to BUY) • EME macro/strategy: global macro - forecasts changes • OPAP: 4Q22 review - strongest GGR and EBITDA, total FY22 DPS of EUR 1.45 • Aegean Airlines: 4Q22 - strong performance at the year-end, and upbeat outlook for 2023E POSITIVE • Verbund: 4Q22 results in line, total proposed DPS at EUR 3.6 • Krka: final 4Q22 results slightly better than the prelims NEUTRAL • KazMunaiGas EP: 2022 financial results and conference call takeaway...
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