We discontinue our coverage of the following stocks, with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks: AD Plastik Arena Hospitality Group Bittnet Ciech Conpet Dogus Otomotiv Ekspress Grupp Fintel Energija Immofinanz Kcell Kernel KGHM Komercijalna Banka NLB Banka Petrol Group S Immo Sava Re Shelly Group (formerly Allterco) STS Group Turk Telekom Turkcell Ulker Zagreb Stock Exchange
EME Equity Market – October 2022 Market performance – in a positive month across the board, Turkey outperforms yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 12.7% mom in EUR terms and 14.4% mom in USD. The ISE30 was, once again, the best-performing index in our coverage, adding 23.4% mom in EUR terms and 25.2% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded positive performances as well, with the WIG (+14.8% EUR / 11.5% lcl), the BUX (+11.4% EUR / 8.5% lcl) and the ASE (+10.3% EUR) del...
HEADLINES: • Romanian banks: building resilience (Banca Transilvania downgraded to HOLD, BRD-GSG stays HOLD) • Fourlis Group: 2 for the price of 1 (upgraded to BUY) • Santander Bank Polska: strong 3Q22 delivery, largely in line with expectations • CCC: final 2Q22 results below prelims on write-downs of receivables from wholesale partners NEGATIVE • TeraPlast: weak 3Q22 earnings NEGATIVE • Zagreb Stock Exchange: 3Q22 results review - muted performance, despite qoq improvements • Romgaz: 3Q22 ...
HEADLINES: • LPP: 2Q22 above expectations; FY22E guidance maintained; Russian operations sold for PLN 1.7bn POSITIVE • CD Projekt: follow-up on strategy update - press comments and our 1-on-1 NEUTRAL • STS Group: 3Q NGR growth of 21% yoy POSITIVE • Alior Bank: tops up credit holiday provisions, implies take-up ratio of 69% NEUTRAL • Alrosa: excluded from the latest EU sanctions list NEUTRAL • Zagreb Stock Exchange: share buyback announcement NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: 3Q22 bookings up by 11% q...
EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
HEADLINES: • Zagreb Stock Exchange: remains BUY, following the share price dip (stays BUY) • NLB Banka: solid performance ytd, but price remains high (stays SELL) • Isbank: 2Q22 highlights - good revenue performance, COR guidance more positive vs. peers • CEZ: 2Q22 results - large EBITDA miss, due to hedging revaluations, FY guidance hiked • PKO BP: may lose another CEO in less than two years, launches EMTN programme up to EUR 4bn NEGATIVE • Allegro: accusations of abuse of dominant position...
In this report, we have updated our estimates for Zagreb Stock Exchange (ZSE) to reflect the numbers reported for 2Q22, while maintaining our BUY recommendation on the company’s shares. Our new price target (PT) now lands at HRK 22.6/share, offering upside of c.33.1% (down from HRK 27.9/share; we note that our previous PT of HRK 14.0/share had to be adjusted for the capital reduction and the effective 2:1 reverse split of the company’s shares, on 5 July 2022), following the recent share price di...
EME Equity Market – July 2022 Market performance – markets mostly up during the month, but Russia’s MOEX down 9.4% in EUR terms. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 2.3% mom in EUR, but lost 0.5% mom in USD in July. The Greek ASE Index was the best performing benchmark, advancing 5.0% mom in EUR. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 4.4% mom and 6.5% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Romania’s BET Index gained 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.3% mom in local currency, while Turkey’s ISE20 added...
HEADLINES: • Erdemir: attractive dividend yield, offset by cost pressures (HOLD - reinitiation of coverage) • Titan Cement: recovering lost ground (stays BUY) • Erste Bank: posts very solid 2Q22 results and guidance mix POSITIVE • Otokar: 2Q22 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Eurobank: strong 2Q22, guidance upgraded for 2022E • National Bank: another solid beat, with upside risks for 2022E forecasts • NLB Banka: 2Q22 results review - annualised ROE reaches as much as 20.8% • Zagreb Stock E...
HEADLINES: • LiveChat Software: Zendesk, LVC's closest peer, to be acquired for USD 10.2bn POSITIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: results of the tender offer • OMV Petrom: reduction of price at pump might be voluntary and covered by cuts in other taxes • Alro: completes new automated extrusion line • Zagreb Stock Exchange: increases stake in Macedonian Stock Exchange to 17.05% • Polyus/Polymetal: US and G7 agree on import ban on new gold from Russia
EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
HEADLINES: • EME Stock Exchanges: reversal of fortunes - out with the new, in with the old (ASE, BVB, GPW, ZSE) • EME Macro/Strategy: Turkey - better, but with high funding needs • OTP Bank: 1Q22 results review - posts net loss of HUF 33bn, tries to keep optimistic outlook • ING BSK: 1Q22 results review - in line with expectations • Dino: 1Q22 sweet spot - strong margins and solid lfl growth POSITIVE • Sisecam: 1Q22 EBITDA 10% above the consensus POSITIVE • Brisa: 1Q22 beats on sell down o...
In recent times, the global stock markets universe has been subject to significant disruptions and changes in long-accepted beliefs. The outstanding growth of China’s weight in the global EM universe has been ended (at least for now) by the “trade and index wars”, and changes in the country’s policy regarding the national high-tech sector. The eruption of the COVID-19 pandemic, along with de-globalisation, has disrupted global logistics chains, stimulating local growth opportunities. This has be...
EME Equity Market – April 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks performance rather mixed in April. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 5.3% in EUR terms and by 9.9% in USD. The best-performing market was Turkey, whose equities gained 13.3% in EUR terms and 9.2% in local currency. Russia’s MOEX Index added 9.0% in EUR terms, but declined by 9.6% in local currency. In Greece, the ASE Index advanced by 4.9% in EUR terms, the last to end the month in the black; while Romania’s BET Index rec...
HEADLINES: • PGNiG: Russia halts the flow of gas to Poland NEGATIVE • Alior Bank: disappointing 1Q22 delivery NEGATIVE • Aselsan: 1Q22 results - top-down beat, but management's guidance unchanged POSITIVE • Otokar: 1Q22 results - broadly in line, 12% NI beat POSITIVE • Zagreb Stock Exchange: 1Q22 results review - strong results, on high volumes traded in the quarter POSITIVE • TeraPlast: strong sales growth reported for 1Q22 POSITIVE • DataWalk: FY21 numbers fully in line with the preliminaries ...
EME Equity Market – February 2022 Market performance – Russia’s equities bled in February due to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. The MSCI EME Europe Index declined by 38.7% in EUR terms and 38.8% in USD terms. Russian stocks, represented by the MOEX Index, lost the most in February, declining by 34.6% in EUR terms and 30.0% in RUB terms. The Hungarian BUX Index lost 21.8% in EUR terms and 18.2% in HUF terms; while the Polish WIG20 Index declined by 11.7% in EUR and 9.5% in PLN. In Prague, the...
HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: targeting the "mum on a budget" (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Tekfen Holding: 4Q21 results - big miss, due to provision hits on E&C front NEGATIVE • PKO BP: 2021 results - solid delivery and guidance for 4%+ of 2021 DPS NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: earnings hit by a one-off provision, but robust recovery underneath NEUTRAL • Allegro: minor miss in 4Q21 on costs of deliveries, constructive FY22E outlook NEUTRAL • Magyar Telekom: 4Q21 results - 4% yoy EBITDA growth, ...
EME Equity Market – December 2021 Market performance – despite most markets being in the black, MSCI EM Europe declined by 1.7%. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 1.7% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms. The Czech PX Index continued with its solid performance and advanced by 7.7% in EUR terms and 5.1% in CZK. The Romanian BET Index added 7.1% in both EUR and local currency. Turkish equities, represented by the ISE30 Index, grew 5.3% in EUR and 4.2% in TRY. Poland’s WIG20 Index gained 4.8% in ...
HEADLINES: • CEZ: power boost (BUY - transfer of coverage) • Zagreb Stock Exchange: waiting for the triggers (stays HOLD) • Greece macro: uplift in the 2021 GDP • Eurobank: binding agreement with Worldline • Polish banks: Puls Biznesu on FX mortgage saga - banks may become vulnerable again NEGATIVE • BIM: proposal of buyback yielding 1% POSITIVE • Transelectrica: 17% increase in transport tariff approved • Allegro: Play offering Amazon Prime to clients for premium price NEUTRAL • Short Ne...
We upgraded Zagreb Stock Exchange (ZSE) to HOLD earlier this year and, in this report, we reiterate our recommendation. However, we have reduced our 12-month price target (PT) by 6%, to HRK 14.1/share, from HRK 15.1/share (upside potential at c.14%). We also reiterate our investment thesis, arguing that an acquisition, preferably in the region, in line with the company’s strategy, could create upside for our estimates and the continued effort to diversify the company’s revenue lines should suppo...
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