After the strong Q2 report (120% organic EBIT growth YOY) and further validation of the sportsbook, we have fine-tuned our above-consensus estimates. We see a good chance that the market’s tame perception of the equity story will improve in the next 12 months relating to the US sportsbook B2B case. We reiterate our BUY and SEK110 target price.
We have raised our target price to SEK110 (100) and reiterate our BUY. The FX headwind is challenging, but the underlying business is growing nicely. We have lifted our 2021e EPS by 5% to reflect strong efficiency and expect the upcoming B2B sportsbook case for the US market to become increasingly in focus also from a share price and valuation perspective.
We reiterate our BUY and SEK100 target price with further upside potential long-term from e.g. Betsson’s execution in US and Latam growth initiatives. We do not expect the Q1 report to trigger meaningful changes to the case and identify potential sports B2B customer signings, US market entry (H2e), strong underlying markets, and potential M&A as the key near-term catalysts.
While the market has overlooked the Betsson case lately, we view it as one of the most interesting in gaming right now thanks to: the growing sportsbook B2B initiative; the strong underlying revenue and earnings trend; the upcoming US launch; and a rising cash position (potential for more M&A and buybacks). 14% organic revenue growth YOY so far in Q1 was just below our estimate and we have trimmed our 2021–2022e EPS. We retain our BUY and SEK100 target price.
We are just below consensus for Q4e, but still expect near 60% EBIT growth YOY, driven by accelerating organic growth, which has made Betsson more confident about expansion plans and growth initiatives. Our 2021–2022e EBIT is on average >10% above consensus; we expect an increasing contribution from new markets and the upcoming launch of the sportsbook B2B initiative. We reiterate our BUY and SEK100 target price.
We have raised our target price to SEK100 (90) and we reiterate our BUY after a >10% rise in our 2021e EPS. A potential reversal of the positive pandemic effects clearly did not hit Q3. Instead, online penetration jumped to a new higher sustainable level (due to structurally challenging land-based sector). We see more upside potential in the share price after clear signs of operational improvements (organic growth, margins).
We expect H2 revenue and EBIT to rise nearly 30–50% YOY, driven by the GiG acquisition, healthy online markets and cost control. We are positive ahead of the Q3 results with an EBIT forecast above consensus and several reverse profit warnings from leading peers. We expect increasing focus on the B2B sportsbook initiative, while Germany is a near-term negative. We reiterate our BUY and SEK90 target price.
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