Transactions, CMD and halted DPS

This week Balder, Citycon and SBB announced divestments, Public Property Invest was assigned an IG rating by Fitch, and Corem hosted its CMD. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.45% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2025e.

Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director

Two Directors at Novo Nordisk AS bought 3,096 shares at 709.250DKK. The significance rating of the trade was 73/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

The Capital Goods Data Miner – November 2024

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Mixed Q3s and soft datapoint for Stockholm office market

This week, Hufvudstaden, Veidekke, Selvaag Bolig and Skanska reported Q3 results. Furthermore, Vasakronan (unlisted) reported soft vacancies and net lettings, which we consider a negative datapoint for peers such as Fabege and Hufuvdstaden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.33% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Wegovy roll-out boost

Q3 LCY sales growth was in line with our expectations, while LCY operating profit fell short. Based on the implied higher rebates in Q3, we have adjusted our Wegovy and Ozempic rebate estimates, offset by ROW Wegovy stock-build. The 2024 guidance for LCY sales growth was raised to 23–27% and LCY operating profit growth to 21–27%. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,150 target price.

Signs of a thawing transaction market

Q3 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

Catena AB: 1 director

A director at Catena AB maiden bought 1,000 shares at 493.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Two upgrades, an equity raise, and transactions

This week, we upgraded Balder to BUY and Sagax to HOLD following their Q3 results, Balder completed a SEK1.5bn equity raise and bought assets from a JV, while a >5% rent increase for 2025 provided a positive datapoint for rent-regulated apartments in Sweden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.31% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.

Difficult to ignore

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Consensus Wegovy sales aligning

We are just below consensus on Q3e LCY sales growth, reflecting our lower Wegovy and Ozempic sales, we believe due to some contributors lacking US prescription data, or differences in rebate assumptions (we see limited risk of Q3 wholesale inventory reductions). We expect management to narrow the 2024 guidance for YOY LCY sales growth to 24–28% (from 22–28%) and LCY operating profit growth of 22–28% (20–28%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,150 target price.

Wärtsilä (Buy, TP: EUR22.00) - Weak core, strong non-core

Following softer clean EBIT and orders in core Marine and Energy than we expected in Q3, partly offset by a stronger non-core portfolio, we have cut our 2024–2026e clean EBIT by c4% on average (core c-5%, non-core c+40%). We reiterate our BUY, but have slightly lowered our target price to EUR22 (23).

Expectations had run ahead

Catena (Hold, TP: SEK550.00) - Sharp drop in project capex in 2025e

The Q3 results were solid, and we have raised our 2025–2026e FFOps by 12–14% following the recent DSV acquisition and equity raise. However, we reiterate our HOLD and have reduced our target price to SEK550 (575) due to: 1) the stretched valuation versus European logistics peers; 2) our belief that a more concentrated tenant list requires a higher risk premium and a lower LTV than more diversified companies; and 3) our expectation of project capex being down up to c70% YOY in 2025, resulting in ...

Mixed Q3, undramatic but against high expectations

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Divestments a key potential catalyst

Q3 EBIT was above our estimate and consensus, mainly driven by ‘Other and Eliminations’. However, EPS was broadly in line, due to rising financing costs, with interest costs on the seven completed but unsold commercial developments not capitalised. With SEK10.2bn of capital employed in development projects (total), selling these assets remains a key potential catalyst, in our view. We reiterate our BUY and SEK190 target price.