Wood down and pulp likely up, but not for Q3

Q3 preview

Essity Aktiebolag (publ): 1 director

A director at Essity Aktiebolag (publ) bought 1,000,000 shares at 249.599SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last tw...

June: Pulp shipments +5% y-o-y

Soft volumes, nappy rash, Suzano stirs the pot

Clean EBITA -5%, volumes weak

May: Pulp shipments -1.7% y-o-y

More value than momentum, except for wood

Q2 preview

Suzano forms tissue JV with Kimberly

Apr: Pulp shipments +2% y-o-y

Mar: Pulp shipments +7% y-o-y

YIT (Sell, TP: EUR2.00) - 2025 guidance unchanged, we see EPS close to...

Q1 EBIT and EPS saw a healthy beat against our estimates and consensus, driven by a strong sales mix and internal efficiency gains. Unsold, completed apartments fell by 30% YOY, to their lowest level since Q3 2023. We have raised our 2025e EBIT, but do not see this as evidence of a broader recovery in Finnish residential markets. Our 2025e EBIT remains just above the guidance mid-point, with EPS hovering just below zero. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to EUR2 (1.75).

Waiting for a volume recovery

Clean EBITA -2% below, Q2 likely better

Clean EBITA SEK 4.7bn vs. cons SEK 4.87bn, -2% below. Margin 13.5% vs. cons' 13.5% (13.1% in Q4) — target is >15%

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

Two negatives and one positive

Q1 preview

YIT (Sell, TP: EUR1.75) - No KPI or EBIT recovery in Q1e

The Finnish residential and commercial real estate markets continue to show no sign of recovery in Q1. While we expect the CEE division to recover, given its minor size, we still forecast group EBIT of zero for Q1. We will look for commentary on the housing shortage and an expected recovery on lower interest rates – a recurring topic the past for three years. We find consensus too bullish and reiterate our SELL and EUR1.75 target price.

Feb: Pulp shipments +0.3% y-o-y