Fundamentals continue to look pretty good to us in Latin America, with market repair continuing across wireless markets, and further consolidation likely. Despite a strong 2025, valuations still look compelling across the region in our view too. Top picks: Liberty Latin America, Vivo, AMX and Megacable. We also upgrade our Millicom pt to $70.
2025 was when the EM Telco bull market really took off. Two of our top picks returned >100% and four more 50%+. We make one change to our top picks for 2026 from 2025, introducing Megacable in exchange for IHS Towers. In a separate note out today we run through the Themes that we think will drive performance in 2026.
EM Telcos have been strong for some time, but 2025 was a banner year. Multiples have expanded somewhat, but we remain bullish, as we think EM Telcos operate on a long cycle driven by market structure which has now definitively turned up We therefore see EM Telcos in a true stealth bull market as conditions still seem ripe for the best to exhibit pricing power and hence GDP+ revenue growth and rising ROIC. This note explains the key themes we see for 2026.
2025 was a banner year for EM Telcos, following on from a good 2023 and 2024. As we head towards the New Year we thought it might be useful to highlight a few of the thematic pieces we wrote last year that we think help to highlight why EM Telcos are in a clear and sustained bull market and why therefore we are confident that 2026 will be another good year for investors in the space, as fundamentals continue to look much stronger than in the past. I hope you enjoy reading these and happy holiday...
EM & Japanese Telcos have more DC capacity than those in other regions. In this short note, we look at the current and future Data Center (DC) capacity for the telcos in our coverage as well as the potential valuation for these assets, in an attempt to contextualise this exposure.
EM Telco earnings season was extremely strong, and with 8 of our 10 picks reporting this month, our picks rose 6.8% on average in November and are now up 80% YTD. With Singtel having strongly outperformed, Bharti we swap the latter in for the former; this note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
Comunicaciones Celulares S.A. Resolves DOJ Investigation Related to Historical Conduct Comunicaciones Celulares S.A. Resolves DOJ Investigation Related to Historical Conduct Luxembourg, November 10, 2025 – Millicom International Cellular S.A. (“Millicom”) today announced that its subsidiary, Comunicaciones Celulares S.A. (“Comcel”), has reached an agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice (“DOJ”) to resolve an investigation concerning historical improper payments made to Guatemalan government officials. At the time of the conduct, Comcel operated as a joint venture over which Millico...
Millicom (Tigo) Q3 2025 Earnings Release Millicom (Tigo) Q3 2025 Earnings Release Luxembourg, November 6, 2025 – is pleased to announce its third quarter 2025 results. Please find below links to the Q3 2025 Earnings Release and IAS 34 Interim Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements. Q3 2025 Highlights* Revenue $1.42 billion Operating profit $390 million, and record Adjusted EBITDA $695 million Net profit attributable to company owners $195 million, including approximately $138 million net profit from the closure of infrastructure transactions Equity free cash flow $243 million ...
Our portfolio of Top Picks was higher again in October, and now up 69% ytd. This month we make no changes to our top picks. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
We analyze how much revenue EM Telcos are generating from digital businesses, and therefore at what point they are likely to make the transition from being “Telcos with digital assets” to “Digital first”. We use this to predict when the market is likely to re-rate those exposed, and as a result make multiple upgrades across our GEM Telcos.
Millicom (Tigo) notice of third quarter 2025 results and video conference Millicom (Tigo) notice of third quarter 2025 results and video conference Luxembourg, October 16, 2025 – Millicom (NASDAQ: TIGO) expects to announce its third quarter 2025 results on November 6, 2025, via a press release. Millicom is planning to host a video conference for the global financial community on November 6, 2025, at 08:00 (New York) / 13:00 (London). Registration for the interactive event is required at the following . After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing details about j...
Millicom (Tigo) completes acquisition of Telefónica in Uruguay, strengthening its regional footprint in South America Millicom (Tigo) completes acquisition of Telefónica in Uruguay, strengthening its regional footprint in South America Luxembourg, October 7, 2025 – Millicom International Cellular S.A. (“Millicom”) today announced that, following final approval from the Government of Uruguay, it has completed the acquisition of 100% of Telefónica Móviles del Uruguay S.A. (Movistar) for an enterprise value of USD 440 million. With this milestone transaction, Millicom officially enters the Ur...
After 8 extremely strong months, September bucked the trend. 6 of our Top Picks saw profit taking with only Airtel Africa, Millicom, Telefonica Brasil and LILAC posting positive returns. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. Having strongly outperformed we switch out Millicom for AMX which we now see as a cheaper, lower risk, way to play Latin American telcos.
Millicom (Tigo) subsidiary Telefónica Celular del Paraguay S.A.E. announces its intent to partially redeem Senior Notes due 2027 Luxembourg, September 5, 2025 – Millicom’s subsidiary Telefónica Celular del Paraguay S.A.E (“Telecel Paraguay”) today announced its intent to redeem $150,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.875% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2027 (the “Notes”) on September 15, 2024 (the “Redemption Date”). A notice of redemption will be sent to the holders of the Notes in accordance with the requirements of the indenture governing the Notes (the “Indenture”). Pursuant to the...
August was a rather eventful month for two of top picks as LILAC announced the Puerto Rican asset separation and Kyivstar, the Ukraine arm of VEON, successfully listed on the NASDAQ (see our initiation HERE). All of our top picks performed well again. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. We make our first change to the list, swapping TIM Brasil for Telefonica Brasil.
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