reports
- Russell Waller
Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK 130, -1%) Q1 25: A strong start to the year
Tele2 has reported a good set of results, with a strong inflection in EBITDAaL trends, and EBITDAaL is +2.6% ahead of consensus (albeit c50% of the EBITDAaL beat is due to a Lithuania cost deferral). The key question is whether or not this is a pull forward of the already announced cost savings, or a new higher level?
- Russell Waller
Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK 115, 0%) Q4 24: A slightly weak set of Q4 numb...
Tele2 has reported a slightly weak set of Q4 numbers, with end-user SR -0.3% light of consensus, and EBITDAaL -1.0% light. EFCF is -15% light, but this is due to a change in a coupon payment timing and cash tax (hard to forecast) – adjusting for both, EFCF is 6% ahead. Away from Q4, new guidance for 2025 is strong, with an upgrade to EBITDAaL guidance to “mid to high single digit” from “MSD”; implied capex is slightly lower than expected, meaning that OpFCF for 2025 is 6% ahead of consensus. The...
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK109, +4%) Q2 24: A solid set of numbers, guid...
Tele2 has reported a solid set of Q2 numbers with end-user SR +0.4% ahead of consensus expectations, and EBITDAaL -0.3% light. All guidance has been reiterated. Guidance for 2025 implies some upside to consensus numbers, but visibility is low as beats will probably come from cost cutting as SR trends have been broadly stable for 2+ years.
- Russell Waller
Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK 110, +13%) Q1 24: A good start to the Europea...
Tele2 has reported a good set of Q1 numbers with EBITDAal +1.2% ahead of consensus expectations and at EFCF +24% ahead. Total end-user SR accelerated to +4.3% YoY (+3.4% in Q4), supported by the earlier phasing of price rises in Sweden this year. EBITDAaL growth (ex energy) slowed to +2.5% y/y (+4.0% in Q4), although this was better than had been messaged by the company in the pre results call, which probably explains the strong share price move today.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK113, +25%) Q4 23: Good result, but 2024 EBITDA...
Tele2 has reported a good set of Q4 numbers with EBITDAal +1.8% ahead of consensus expectations and EFCF 23% ahead. Total end-user SR trends are unchanged, but EBITDAaL growth has rebounded as expected to +4.0% y/y from +0.5% y/y (both ex energy).
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK120, +29%) Q2 23: Mixed results, and capex gui...
Tele2 has reported a mixed set of Q1 numbers with end-user SR +1.3% ahead of consensus expectations, but EBITDAal -0.3% light, and EFCF is -10.9% light. In addition, Tele2 has lifted capex guidance for 2023 and for the mid-term quite materially (but left EBITDAal guidance unchanged).
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK133, +41%) Q4 22: Solid SR and EBITDA, but wea...
Tele2 has reported a mixed set of Q4 numbers: SR and underlying EBITDA trends are unchanged and ahead of consensus Q4 expectations, but EFCF is light due a big swing in NWC (and higher capex), and EBITDA guidance for 2023 has been cut slightly.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
New Street: Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK165, +14%) Q1 22: Strong start to the ...
Tele2 has reported a good set of Q1 numbers: SR trends are slightly better (and SR is ahead of consensus by +0.7%), and EBITDA is +1.3% ahead of consensus, and LFL trends have improved materially to +5.9% y/y from +1.0% y/y in Q4 21.
- Russell Waller
New Street: Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK162, +19%) Q4 21: Thoughts after the c...
We include thoughts and notes from Tele2’s Q4 21 call in this brief note. Tele2 was keen to stress that it saw an opportunity to invest for growth and to create value in Q4 21, and that it sees more opportunities to do this going forward.
- Russell Waller
New Street: Tele2 (Buy, TP: €162, +19%) Q4 21: Weak EBITDA, but outlo...
Tele2 has reported a slightly mixed set of Q4 numbers: on the one hand, SR is slightly ahead of expectations (+0.2% ahead of consensus), the dividend has been increased +12.5% vs consensus expectations of an +8% increase (suggesting management confidence in the outlook), and 2022 guidance is comforting; but, EBITDA missed by -2.3% in Q4.
- Russell Waller
New Street: European Telecoms and ESG: Well-placed today, could be eve...
If truth be told, before writing this report we were sceptical about the financial merits of ESG investing; however, in doing the research, we found clear evidence of better TSR from Telco ESG leaders compared to laggards, that those with better Governance (no Government ownership) outperformed the others, and that ESG can help companies in the sector have a lower cost of borrow – these three things alone are good reason enough to look at ESG from a financial perspective in our view.
- James Ratzer
New Street: European telecoms consolidation Is the holy grail within ...
The last 10 days have been busy for sector newsflow - and on top of that, we also held our 6th NSR/ BCG 5G conference. One of the topics to come out of company commentary last week was a sharp increase in the rhetoric around the potential for in-market consolidation - both between operators and tower companies. In case you missed it, our Global Weekly published over the weekend ran through our latest thoughts on this as it pertains to the European telecoms operators. It probably wasn't at the to...
- James Ratzer
New Street: Hang on. What just happened to EU telcos in October?
October hasn’t been a great month for the European telecoms sector. Up until the end of the September, the telecoms sector has been up 13% total return (vs. the market up 17%), but during October, the sector has been down 3%, vs. the market up 5%, opening up a sudden period of wider underperformance. Is this justified?
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
TEL TELENOR ASA
SCMN SWISSCOM AG
ILD ILIAD
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
FNTN FREENET AG
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
ELISA ELISA
TELIA TELIA COMPANY
TEL2A TELE2 A
TEL2B TELE2 B
BT BRITISH TELECOM
1475034Z TELEFONICA UK LTD
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