TRUE posted a large net loss in 2Q23 due to a few one-off items. However, there are signs of positive improvement following the amalgamation in Mar 23 on the back of limited ARPU reduction and EBITDA margin expansion. Despite disappointing 1H23 results, the worst should have passed and a considerable improvement is expected in 2H23. Upgrade to BUY. Target price: Bt8.20.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results True Corporation (TRUE TB/BUY/Bt7.20/Target: Bt8.20) 2Q23: Heavy losses on one-off items; signs of improvement observed. Upgrade to BUY. Update Central Pattana (CPN TB/BUY/Bt66.75/Target: Bt80.00) 2Q23 results preview: Expect earnings to increase 21% yoy and 2% qoq. PTT Oil & Retail Business (OR TB/BUY/Bt21.10/Target: Bt29.00) 2Q23 results preview: Expect earnings to decrease qoq and yoy. Ratchaburi Group PCL (RATCH TB/BUY/Bt35.00/Target: Bt50.00) Share price correction...
ADVANC’s 2Q23 core profit is expected to be outstanding, reaching a new peak since 3Q19 as ARPU has picked up due to softening competition and the subsequent margin expansion. We expect a substantial improvement in 2H23 due to the time lag of ARPU uplift, lower electricity expense and possible upside from the acquisition of TTTBB and JASIF. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt262.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Aeon Thana Sinsap (Thailand) (AEONTS TB/BUY/Bt183.50/Target: Bt230.00) 1Q23: Results miss consensus expectation. Update Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB/BUY/Bt214.00/Target: Bt262.00) Notable earnings improvement in 2Q23 from ARPU uplift.
TRUE reported a net loss in 1Q23, which is the first quarter after the completion of the merger as ARPU remains on a decline, given that the synergistic benefits from the merger have not been apparent. We are optimistic in the long term as the synergies will be more observable in 2024, despite taking some time. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt8.75.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB/BUY/Bt30.75/Target: Bt40.00) 1Q23: Results within expectation. Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt39.75/Target: Bt46.00) 1Q23: Slightly better-than-expected earnings; impressive gross margin trend. CP ALL (CPALL TB/BUY/Bt65.75/Target: Bt78.00) 1Q23: Better-than-expected earnings; positive earnings growth outlook. Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt34.25/Target: Bt45.00) 1Q23: Slow recovery as expected. Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB/BUY/Bt15.80/Target:...
ADVANC reported 1Q23 net profit which was in line with consensus estimates on the back of low yoy revenue growth and stringent cost control. Although ARPU remained in decline in 1Q23, the inflection point is imminent following a completed amalgamation of peers that would lead to a secular shift in the industry’s competitive landscape. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt254.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB/BUY/Bt219.00/Target: Bt254.00) 1Q23: Results in line; substantial improvement expected. Minor International (MINT TB/BUY/Bt33.50/Target: Bt42.00) 1Q23: Worse-than-expected results; brighter earnings prospects in 2Q23 await.
We expect ADVANC to post a strong qoq improvement in 4Q22 net profit on the back of huge forex gains and higher service revenue from the potentially lower market competition facing both the mobile and fixed broadband businesses. Earnings upside should come from the acquisitions of TTTBB and JASIF and new business opportunities include smart energy solutions and regional data centre businesses. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt244.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: Jan 23 Portfolio China’s reopening will certainly boost Thailand’s economy through tourism and consumption. Update Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB/BUY/Bt196.00/Target: Bt244.00) Expect 4Q22 earnings to improve qoq on forex gains and higher service revenue.
TRUE posted a net loss of Bt2.8b that was higher than our and consensus estimates. Core loss widened qoq, mainly due to higher SG&A expenses on more marketing activities. We expect TRUE to continue reporting a core loss in 4Q22, flat qoq, due to the sluggish economic recovery and intense market competition. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt5.20.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Amata Corporation (AMATA TB/BUY/Bt19.10/Target: Bt26.00) 3Q22: Earnings up yoy but down qoq Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB/HOLD/Bt30.50/Target: Bt29.50) 3Q22: Outstanding results from higher-than-expected margins. BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB/BUY/Bt8.35/Target: Bt9.30) 2QFY23: Disappointing results dragged by U City and extraordinary items. CH Karnchang (CK TB/BUY/Bt23.40/Target: Bt25.50) 3Q22: Good earnings growth rescued by associates. Electricity Generating P...
ADVANC’s 3Q22 net profit declined qoq, mainly due to higher network opex and on the back of higher electricity cost and lower service revenue amid a sluggish economy. We expect a potential improvement in the competitive landscape for the FBB and mobile businesses. Earnings upside from new business opportunities includes smart energy solutions and regional data centre businesses. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt244.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB/BUY/Bt192.50/Target: Bt244.00) 3Q22: Results in line with our estimate; outlook to improve in 4Q22. LPN Development (LPN TB/HOLD/Bt4.60/Target: Bt4.60) 3Q22: Earnings jump from sales of office building projects. Update Thai Union Group (TU TB/BUY/Bt18.00/Target: Bt23.00) Core business to continue growing in 2023.
DTAC posted a qoq and yoy weaker net profit below our and consensus estimates on the huge one-off expenses related to amalgamation expenses. However, core earnings slightly increased qoq mainly from lower SG&A expense on effective cost control. Although we are positive on the NBTC allowing TRUE/DTAC to process their merger deal, DTAC/TRUE share prices are already priced in. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt50.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Kasikorn Bank (KBANK TB/BUY/Bt146.00/Target: Bt186.00) 3Q22: Results in line. Kiatnakin Phatra Bank (KKP TB/BUY/Bt71.75/Target: Bt89.00) 3Q22: Strong results. Krung Thai Bank (KTB TB/HOLD/Bt17.00/Target: Bt16.90) 3Q22: Results beat from outstanding non-II. Krungthai Card (KTC TB/SELL/Bt56.75/Target: Bt50.00) 3Q22: Results are in line. Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB/BUY/Bt106.00/Target: Bt138.00) 3Q22: Results miss on extraordinary tax expenses. Total Access Communic...
We expect ADVANC’s 3Q22 net profit to decline slightly qoq, mainly due to higher network opex and SG&A expenses on the back of higher electricity cost and continuation of existing campaigns. We expect a potential improvement in the competitive landscape for both the FBB and mobile businesses. Earnings upside from new business opportunities include AISCB, smart energy solutions and regional data centre businesses. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt244.00.
We expect 3Q22 net profit to be enhanced qoq on the back of: a) improving economic conditions; b) better market competition, which will boost new subscriber additions; c) stabilising ARPU; and d) lower handset subsidies. Moreover, we expect SG&A expense to decline to a normal level. We recommend investors to wait and see until there is a clearer picture on the merger process and the synergistic benefits after the merger is completed. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt50.00.
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