ADVANC’s 2Q23 core profit is expected to be outstanding, reaching a new peak since 3Q19 as ARPU has picked up due to softening competition and the subsequent margin expansion. We expect a substantial improvement in 2H23 due to the time lag of ARPU uplift, lower electricity expense and possible upside from the acquisition of TTTBB and JASIF. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt262.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Aeon Thana Sinsap (Thailand) (AEONTS TB/BUY/Bt183.50/Target: Bt230.00) 1Q23: Results miss consensus expectation. Update Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB/BUY/Bt214.00/Target: Bt262.00) Notable earnings improvement in 2Q23 from ARPU uplift.
ADVANC reported 1Q23 net profit which was in line with consensus estimates on the back of low yoy revenue growth and stringent cost control. Although ARPU remained in decline in 1Q23, the inflection point is imminent following a completed amalgamation of peers that would lead to a secular shift in the industry’s competitive landscape. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt254.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB/BUY/Bt219.00/Target: Bt254.00) 1Q23: Results in line; substantial improvement expected. Minor International (MINT TB/BUY/Bt33.50/Target: Bt42.00) 1Q23: Worse-than-expected results; brighter earnings prospects in 2Q23 await.
We expect ADVANC to post a strong qoq improvement in 4Q22 net profit on the back of huge forex gains and higher service revenue from the potentially lower market competition facing both the mobile and fixed broadband businesses. Earnings upside should come from the acquisitions of TTTBB and JASIF and new business opportunities include smart energy solutions and regional data centre businesses. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt244.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: Jan 23 Portfolio China’s reopening will certainly boost Thailand’s economy through tourism and consumption. Update Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB/BUY/Bt196.00/Target: Bt244.00) Expect 4Q22 earnings to improve qoq on forex gains and higher service revenue.
ADVANC’s 3Q22 net profit declined qoq, mainly due to higher network opex and on the back of higher electricity cost and lower service revenue amid a sluggish economy. We expect a potential improvement in the competitive landscape for the FBB and mobile businesses. Earnings upside from new business opportunities includes smart energy solutions and regional data centre businesses. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt244.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB/BUY/Bt192.50/Target: Bt244.00) 3Q22: Results in line with our estimate; outlook to improve in 4Q22. LPN Development (LPN TB/HOLD/Bt4.60/Target: Bt4.60) 3Q22: Earnings jump from sales of office building projects. Update Thai Union Group (TU TB/BUY/Bt18.00/Target: Bt23.00) Core business to continue growing in 2023.
DTAC posted a qoq and yoy weaker net profit below our and consensus estimates on the huge one-off expenses related to amalgamation expenses. However, core earnings slightly increased qoq mainly from lower SG&A expense on effective cost control. Although we are positive on the NBTC allowing TRUE/DTAC to process their merger deal, DTAC/TRUE share prices are already priced in. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt50.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Kasikorn Bank (KBANK TB/BUY/Bt146.00/Target: Bt186.00) 3Q22: Results in line. Kiatnakin Phatra Bank (KKP TB/BUY/Bt71.75/Target: Bt89.00) 3Q22: Strong results. Krung Thai Bank (KTB TB/HOLD/Bt17.00/Target: Bt16.90) 3Q22: Results beat from outstanding non-II. Krungthai Card (KTC TB/SELL/Bt56.75/Target: Bt50.00) 3Q22: Results are in line. Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB/BUY/Bt106.00/Target: Bt138.00) 3Q22: Results miss on extraordinary tax expenses. Total Access Communic...
We expect ADVANC’s 3Q22 net profit to decline slightly qoq, mainly due to higher network opex and SG&A expenses on the back of higher electricity cost and continuation of existing campaigns. We expect a potential improvement in the competitive landscape for both the FBB and mobile businesses. Earnings upside from new business opportunities include AISCB, smart energy solutions and regional data centre businesses. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt244.00.
We expect 3Q22 net profit to be enhanced qoq on the back of: a) improving economic conditions; b) better market competition, which will boost new subscriber additions; c) stabilising ARPU; and d) lower handset subsidies. Moreover, we expect SG&A expense to decline to a normal level. We recommend investors to wait and see until there is a clearer picture on the merger process and the synergistic benefits after the merger is completed. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt50.00.
ADVANC posted a flat qoq net profit, in line with our estimate but below consensus’ by 7%. The improvement in core earnings was mainly due to the improvement in service revenue on the back of the marketing activities in both the mobile and fixed broadband businesses. We expect a positive earnings outlook on the potential improved competitive landscape both in the FBB and mobile businesses. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt244.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB/BUY/Bt202.00/Target: Bt244.00) 2Q22: Results were in line with our estimate but below consensus’ by 7%. Thai Union Group (TU TB/BUY/Bt16.60/Target: Bt20.00) Core operation will start to improve in 2H22. Upgrade to BUY.
DTAC posted a 2Q22 net profit above our and consensus estimates on the back of net one-time gain recognitions in 2Q22. However, stripping out the extraordinary items, DTAC’s 2Q22 core earnings were in line with our estimate. We have revised down our core earnings forecasts for 2022-23 to reflect the new revenue guidance from DTAC. The key catalyst should be the merger deal with TRUE. We have rolled over our target to next year. Downgrade to HOLD with a target price of Bt50.00.
We expect 2Q22 net profit to soften qoq on the back of the economic slowdown hurting consumer spending and pressuring DTAC’s service revenue trend. The key date to watch is 10 Jul 22, with NBTC’s board expected to make a decision on the TRUE/DTAC merger deal. DTAC’s share price has mostly priced in the negatives and provides an 8% upside to the tender offer price. Upgrade to BUY. Target price: Bt52.00.
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