reports
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Introducing the NSR Global EM Telco & Tower...
In a separate note published last week we introduced the NSR GEM-Top 8. However, many of the stocks in that list are not liquid and so, given the tailwinds we now see in the Telco industry we introduce a second list – the GEM Telco & Towers Liquid Compounders; large cap, well-managed telcos in attractive markets at cheap valuations that are likely to generate market-beating returns over time. These are the best large cap investments in the Global EM Telco & Towers space we think.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q3 24 review: Macro continues to impact the top line
Service revenue trend kept steady relative to Q2, albeit being slower than before due to macro headwinds. Yet earnings momentum continued to trend in the mid-single digits overall as we saw good cost control by China Telecom again (acceleration in EBITDA) while peers were cushioned by lower D&A costs (back by easing capex).
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
EM Towers Q2 CY24 review: Improving trends in China and Africa, Indon...
Revenue and EBITDA trends improved again for China Tower, which alongside stable depreciation supported bottom-line momentum. In Indonesia, MTEL and TOWR continued to perform where the latter benefited from faster growth in its Fibre business thus should act as a buffer should the XL and Smartfren deal were to proceed.
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q2 24 review: Strong earnings despite softer topline; ...
Despite the slowdown in service revenue trend from softer macro, Chinese operators still delivered a strong earnings growth. Interim dividends rose by 7-22% YoY as all three raised payout ratios. Despite the share prices already roughly doubling, we remain bullish on exposure to China’s structural enterprise theme, improving capital intensity and improved shareholder remuneration.
- Chris Hoare
China Tower (Buy, TP: HK$ 1.40, +45%) Q2 24 Quick Take: Sustained pro...
Both revenue and EBITDA trends improved, with KPIs looking healthy and Core Tower reverting to growth again. As depreciation costs continue to slow, earnings have been growing rapidly, up 10% YoY in the first half. China Tower has also announced its first interim dividends (RMB 0.0109/share) and guided for full year’s dividends to be no less than 75% payout.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Q1 23: Slowdown in India, elsewhere strong
EM Telcos top line growth slowed somewhat in Q1 driven by price increases in India lapping. However, other markets stayed strong and simple average revenue growth was 9%. Our thesis remains that EM telcos are set to grow sustainably at GDP+ rates.
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Chinese Telcos Q3 22 review: High-single digit growth aga...
Chinese telcos reported high-single digit service revenue growth again, driven by Enterprise and a better mobile performance. However, EBITDA growth and margin saw some pressure, attributed to higher personnel, marketing costs and Enterprise-related technical costs.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Emerging Market Telcos What is the Evidence that Enterpri...
Over the last year we have become increasingly bullish on the top line outlook for EM Telcos and in particular on their Enterprise segment, as we believe Enterprise revenues for EM Telcos are set to exceed expectations based on our view that Enterprise penetration is following an S-curve.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Chinese Telcos Data Centres: A valuation anomaly that is ...
In a separate note published today we analyse the Data Centre opportunity for EM Telcos globally which shows that the best value opportunity for those that can invest is probably in China. The 3 Chinese Telcos are each among the top 6 providers of co-location DC capacity globally, and generate 3-9% of group revenues from IDC.
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Global EM Telcos 8 EM Telcos we think are set to double i...
We have written numerous notes now on our view that EM Telcos are in a bull market. And in a bull market it is likely that the best performers will double. In this note, we pick out the 9 EM Telcos we think are most likely to do that on a 2-3 year time horizon. Investors who focus on these stocks we think are likely to generate outsized returns well ahead of the broader market.
CHINA UNICOM (HK.) LTD. loses on its star level and is downgraded to S...
The independent financial analyst theScreener just slightly lowered the general evaluation of CHINA UNICOM (HK.) LTD. (HK), active in the Mobile Telecommunications industry. The title has lost a star(s) at the fundamental level and now shows 3 out of 4 stars. Its exposure to market risk remains nonetheless the same and can be still described as defensive. theScreener slightly downgrades the general evaluation to Slightly Positive for the title on account of the lost star(s). As of the analysis d...
CHINA TOWER CORP LTD sees an upgrade to Slightly Positive due to a bet...
The general evaluation of CHINA TOWER CORP LTD (CN), a company active in the Heavy Construction industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 3 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date January 14, 2022, the closing ...
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Chinese Telcos & Towers Outlook 2022 – The year has start...
2021 saw revenue growth improve materially for the telcos largely driven by Enterprise. With Enterprise penetration still in the twenties, we expect this process to continue, leading to reduced margin pressure and accelerating profit growth. Share price response to better trends was disappointing in 2021, but 2022 has started well, with a $12.6bn buyback from China Mobile, and aggressive profit targets from China Unicom.
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Global EM Telcos Revenue growth is already double digit
Our thesis is that EM telcos are set to grow sustainably at GDP+ rates. One of the key questions we are repeatedly asked is whether there are any examples of this happening. This note in a single slide answers this question by showing actual reported growth rates of service revenues for the key EM Telcos.
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