reports
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking - Contained Banking-Sector Risk From Sumatra Floods
Sector Update | Banking The Sumatra floods have caused severe local disruptions and exacted a tragic humanitarian toll, resulting in a GDP drag of 0.1% in 4Q25. Banking-system exposure is modest at 5% of loans, with near-term pressure concentrated in micro and SME borrowers. Provisioning may rise slightly in 1Q26 but remains manageable given strong sector buffers. Exposure varies across banks, with BRIS and BBRI being the most affected. Despite short-term noise, the event does not alter the sect...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Suryaputra Wijaksana
Indonesia Daily - Wednesday, December 10, 2025
Economics | Directive Approach, Structural Limits: Assessing Indonesia's New Forex Proceed Rules Indonesia's 2026 revision of its export proceeds (DHE) rules mandates that all export earnings be placed exclusively in state-owned banks, while cutting the rupiah conversion limit to 50%. This state-directed strategy aims to mechanically boost forex reserves and stabilise the onshore currency market. However, it risks distorting the banking sector, creating liabilities for state banks and squeezing ...
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking - Kopdes Credit Scheme: Policy-Heavy, Earnings-Light
Highlights • Kopdes is policy-driven but earnings-light, with an estimated 1% ROA before tax and credit costs (vs SOE banks’ >2% ROA); impact remains immaterial at Rp16t but will become more meaningful and riskier as disbursement scales up. • Governance risk is high, and while DigiKop and Task Force may enhance transparency and reduce misuse, failure to strengthen oversight could lead to elevated credit risk, profit erosion, and deeper ROA dilutions. • Maintain OVERWEIGHT, with accelerating loan...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Monday, October 13, 2025
Sector Update | Banking The government has launched the Rp16t Kopdes scheme through SOE banks at a fixed 6% lending rate to support cooperatives. While framed as inclusive financing, Kopdes is structurally earnings-light, generating about 1% ROA (vs >2% for SOE banks). The impact is negligible at the current scale, but dilution risk will rise if allocations expand without stronger credit discipline. Oversight via DigiKop and the joint task force is directionally positive, though execution remain...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Krit Tanarattananon
- Ming San Soong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, August 27, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb13.83/Target: Rmb16.70) 1H25: Satisfactory results; seeking growth by improving service capability and operating efficiency. China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/HOLD/Rmb71.41/Target: Rmb75.30) 2Q25: Net profit down 32% yoy and 66% qoq; fair valuation. Downgrade to HOLD. Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK/BUY/HK$14.47/Target: HK$17.00) 1H25: Revenue in line but net profit misses; generous dividend payout likely to b...
1295 PUBLIC BANK BHD
300015 AIER EYE HOSPITAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
1155 MALAYAN BANKING BHD.
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
0168 TSINGTAO BREWERY CO. LTD. CLASS H
06862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
BTPS BANK TABUNGAN PENSIUNAN NASIONAL SYARIAH
CPALL TB CP ALL
RATCH RATCH GROUP PUBLIC CO. LTD.
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
IOIPG IOI PROPERTIES GROUP BHD
600699 JOYSON ELECTRONICS CORP
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking – Liquidity Stabilising, Credit Appetite Still Muted
Indonesia’s banking sector shows stabilising liquidity but muted credit appetite, with M2 up 6.5% yoy in Jul 25 on foreign inflows while loan growth slowed to 6.6%. Working capital and SME lending remain weak, and continue to weigh on BBRI’s earnings (SMEheavy exposure). Although its CoC rose mom, BBCA remains resilient with its strong liquidity buffers. With the BI’s 75bp ytd cuts and fiscal disbursements, loan demand should recover in 2026. Maintain OVERWEIGHT with BBNI and BBCA as our top pic...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Ejann Hiew
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Lester Siew
- Ming San Soong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, August 13, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK/BUY/HK$40.18/Target: HK$45.00) 2Q25: Normalised EBITDA up 7% qoq; expects reinvestment efficiency to optimise. Increased dividend payout to remain sustainable. Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH/BUY/Rmb1,437.04/Target: Rmb1,722.00) 2Q25: On track to achieve full-year target; expect wholesale price pressure to persist into 2H25. Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK/BUY/HK$88.30/Target: HK$105.00) ...
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
QH QUALITY HOUSES
F34 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
CAB CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA B
BTPS BANK TABUNGAN PENSIUNAN NASIONAL SYARIAH
SREIT SUNWAY REAL ESTATE INVESTMEN
PROP PROPNEX LTD
AWC ASSET WORLD CORP PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
WHA TB WHA CORP PCL
SE US SEA LIMITED
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
BBYB BANK NEO COMMERCE
1698 HK TENCENT MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking – 2Q25 Results Roundup: Easing CoF To Drive 2H25 Recovery
Liquidity saw an early improvement in Jun 25 as LDR at major SOE banks eased, current account balances rose, and M2 growth accelerated as government funds shifted out of BI. Coupled with lower SRBI yields, this led to easing monthly CoF. The trend could persist on the back of: a) continued unwinding of SRBI and lower yields, b) potential rate cuts in 2H25, and c) stronger fiscal spending in 2H25, supporting modest sequential earnings improvements ahead. Maintain OVERWEIGHT with top picks BBNI an...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking – 1H25 Results Preview: Diverging Earnings Growth
We expect the banking sector’s 1H25 results to be broadly in line with expectations, despite a possible underperformance from BBRI and BRIS. BBCA remains strong while BBNI and BMRI should post muted earnings growth. NIM pressure is likely to persist due to tight liquidity. Loan growth decelerated but is expected to recover in 2H25. NPLs for auto and mortgage are inching up, but overall asset quality remains sound. We maintain OVERWEIGHT, supported by a dovish BI policy, easing SRBI yields and ex...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking – Loan Growth Slows, All Eyes On Fiscal Spending Acceleration
Loan growth slowed to 8.1% yoy in May 25 due to tight liquidity and weak credit appetite. Deposit growth remained soft at 3.9% yoy, weighed down by front-loaded government bond issuance, diverting liquidity. We expect BI to continue unwinding SRBI and deliver further rate cuts in 2H25. Fiscal spending showed early signs of acceleration to Rp1,406t in 6M25 (5M25: Rp1,016t). With the deficit revised to 2.78% of GDP, further fiscal spending is anticipated. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector.
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking - Banking Liquidity: Measures Underway
Liquidity remains tight with deposit growth slowing and industry LDR rising to 90% in Apr 25. Banks relied on BI repo facilities while the overnight rate has consistently surpassed BI rate in recent weeks. Nevertheless, we expect liquidity to improve in 2H25 due to the recent rate cut, lower PLM, and higher foreign borrowing limits. SRBI issuance has eased though it remains substantial. Expected higher fiscal spending in 2H25 could facilitate greater liquidity. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector.
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Jo Yee Ng
- Jonathan Koh
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Lester Siew
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tham Mun Hon
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, January 15, 2025
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply Positive signs despite weak credit demand. Sector Baijiu Industry remains under pressure; conservative tone toward 2025; channel healthiness and price stability the key focuses. Downgrade the baijiu sector to UNDERWEIGHT. Metals and Mining ...
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
TRUE TRUE CORP. PUBLIC CO. LTD.
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
BTPS BANK TABUNGAN PENSIUNAN NASIONAL SYARIAH
IOI IOI CORP BHD
KLK KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
SPSB SP SETIA BHD
GENP GENTING PLANTATIONS BHD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
HAPL HAP SENG PLANTATIONS HOLDINGS BHD
UHU UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
KMLY KIMLY LTD
SCGP SCG PACKAGING PCL
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
BBYB BANK NEO COMMERCE
Z29 029 GROUP SE
SDG SD GUTHRIE BHD
1787 SHANDONG GOLD MINING CO LTD
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking – BBCA And BRIS To Deliver Double-digit Earnings Growth
Ytd net foreign sell-off has continued for some Indonesian banks which we believe provided attractive entry prices. Amid the headwinds from the uncertainty of rate cuts, tighter liquidity, and government policies, BBCA and BRIS could deliver double-digit earnings growth in 2024/25. Given its low LDR and strong CASA franchise, BBCA has room to manage its NIM. Hajj Wadiah savings accounts, the gold financing business, and bancassurance could be earnings growth drivers for BRIS in 2025.
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking – Investor Feedback: Investors Cautious On Rate Cut Uncertaint...
Feedback from investors during our annual strategy conference in Malaysia showed that they remain cautious on Indonesian banks as they are less optimistic about the rate cut outlook and liquidity tightening. We believe that higher government spending, which focuses on boosting consumption, could revitalise the domestic economy. Valuation is attractive as the big four banks are trading close to the mean five-year P/B. We maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector. Top picks: BBCA, BMRI, BBNI, BRIS and BBT...
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