Strategy For ‘Trump-dora’s’ Box (Prolonged Iran Conflict) Highlights While there is fresh optimism of the US’ touted 15-point plan to close the global economic Pandora’s box that was pried open by US-Israel attack on Iran, we provide a current damage report and explore a protracted conflict scenario. Malaysia remains a net exporter of oil & gas (O&G), but there are wide concerns that the government deficit will significantly widen under the scenario of the Brent crude oil price sustaining we...
Digging Into A More Defensive Mode Highlights The past week’s events require reassessment of the financial impact of the US-Israel vs Iran conflict. With Iran’s organised and persistent military response that has targeted/crippled the regional logistics/production of crude oil, the situation could morph into a war of attrition and further elevate Brent crude oil prices by more than 20% to over US$88/bbl. Such a scenario raises the probabilities of Brent crude oil prices rising to US$100/bbl, s...
4Q25 Results Wrap-Up: Improving Breadth And Earnings Visibility Lay Foundation For A Firmer 2026 Highlights The substantial improvements in market earnings breadth in the 4Q25 results season reinforces our view of improving corporate earnings momentum in 2026. Large-cap domestic proxies which topped expectations were amply rewarded, notably Sunway Construction, Sunway Bhd, Sime Darby, KPJ Healthcare and Tenaga Nasional. Strategy: Selective, favouring liquid large-cap proxies. Against a flu...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Seazen’s C-REIT application signals improving financing channels. Sector fundamentals remain weak, with 2M26 developers’ contract sales and major cities’ new-home data still under pressure, despite relatively resilient secondary transactions. Second-hand property prices modestly recovered mom in four Tier 1 cities. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT but see potential policy after the March NPC. Our top pick is CR Land, trading at 0.65x 26PB, 0.6SD below mean...
US-Israel-Iran Escalation: Volatility Spike, But Limited Structural Fallout For Malaysia Highlights Over the past few days, tensions between the US, Israel and Iran have escalated sharply following a coordinated USIsrael military campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear-linked facilities. Multiple strategic sites were reportedly struck, marking one of the most direct confrontations among the parties in recent years. Iran’s leadership has since vowed retaliation, heightening fears of a b...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China's humanoid robotics sector is accelerating, with 2025 global shipments up 508%. Key players anticipate significant revenue contributions by 2031: CATL expects 3-7% from batteries; Minth and LeaderDrive project 5-12% and 45-65% respectively; Tuopu forecasts 15-25% from motion systems; and RoboSense targets 40-60% from LiDAR. We maintain a MARKET WEIGHT rating on the sector. Top BUY recommendations include CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth (target price ra...
4Q25: Within Expectations; Price Momentum Supported by Tight Supply And Macro Tailwinds Highlights PMETAL’s results are within expectations, backed by strong aluminium prices with relatively low alumina cost. We expect a sequentially stronger 1Q26, driven by further strengthening in aluminium prices alongside lower alumina costs. We foresee aluminium prices continuing to trend higher, supported by ongoing supply tightness and a favourable monetary policy environment. We upgrade our 2026/...
US Tariff Shock: Rotation Opportunities Amid US Trade Uncertainty Highlights Late Friday (US time), the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariff regime, dealing a major blow to Trump’s signature trade policy and marking his most significant legal setback since returning to the White House. In a 6-3 ruling, the court held that President Trump overstepped his authority by invoking federal emergency-powers legislation to impose broad “reciprocal” tariffs and ...
1H26 Strategy: Fired Up For A Risk-On Re-Acceleration Highlights We expect Malaysian equities to fire up for outperformance in 2026 after a muted and defensive-driven 2025, fuelled primarily by a confluence of pre- GE domestic liquidity, the ringgit’s appreciation, and corporate earnings growth recovery. Externally, easing geopolitical tensions and accommodative monetary policy backdrop should keep risk-asset sentiment buoyant while domestically, a firmer ringgit, and follow-through buying o...
Greater China Company Update | Baidu (9888 HK/BUY/HK$146.60/Target: HK$166.00) We are optimistic on Baidu as the Kunlunxin spin-off could help unlock financial value for Baidu and strengthen its AI ecosystem. Baidu announced that on 1 Jan 26, Kunlunxin applied for a listing on the HK Stock Exchange. Following the spin-off, Kunlunxin will remain a consolidated subsidiary, with Baidu retaining a controlling 59% stake. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$166.00 (US$185.00). Company ...
1H26 Strategy: Fired Up For Outperformance Highlights Malaysian equities are fired up for outperformance in 2026, fuelled primarily by pre-GE domestic liquidity, the ringgit’s appreciation, and a corporate earnings growth recovery. Externally, we foresee cooling tensions over global trade and geopolitics (amid a doveish US monetary policy). We introduce our end-26 FBMKLCI target of 1,760. The index could potentially peak at the 1,800 level before the market turns risk-off towards year-end,...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile We expect China’s vehicle wholesale shipment to grow 4.9% to 35.7m units in 2026, with EV shipments surging 22.9% and exports rising 20.8%. The anti-involution policy and subsidy rollback will curb overall sales growth but improve OEM margins by banning price wars, while auto parts suppliers regain bargaining power. Key 2026 investment themes include ADAS, humanoid robotics, eVTOL and recovery of lithium carbonate prices. Maintain MARKET WEIGH...
3Q25 Results Wrap-up: Improvement In Market Breadth And Outlook Highlights The substantial improvements in market earnings breadth in the 3Q25 results season reinforce our view of improving corporate earnings momentum in 2026. Companies which topped dividend expectations were amply rewarded, eg TIME.com and CIMB. Strategy: Remain risk-on. Year-end window dressing could modestly propel the FBMKLCI to exceed our end-25 FBMKLCI target of 1,640. Top picks: Fraser & Neave Holdings, Hong Leong...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Demand stayed weak in Nov 25, with new-home sales in 28 cities down 42% yoy and second hand home prices in most cities falling. Land auctions in Shanghai and Hangzhou cooled, with most plots near reserve prices. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China property, with CR Land as our top pick for its consistent earnings outperformance. Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Nov 25 GGR reached MOP 21.1b, down 12% mom but up 14% yoy, and recovering to 92% o...
3Q25: Within Expectations; Strong 4Q25 Anticipated Highlights Press Metal’s results are within expectations, backed by strong aluminium prices with relatively low alumina cost. We expect a sequentially stronger 4Q25, driven by further strengthening in aluminium prices following the Fed’s rate cut in Sep 25, alongside lower alumina costs. We foresee aluminium prices continuing to trend higher, supported by ongoing supply tightness and a favourable monetary policy environment. We upgrade o...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The phasing out of subsidies has hammered auto sales. PV sales fell 14% yoy, and PEV sales edged up 1-2% yoy during 1-16 Nov 25. Subsidies are likely to continue into 2026 at reduced levels. We expect PV and EV sales to grow 4.9% and over 20%, driven by exports. Tighter regulatory oversight amid rising safety concerns should benefit OEMs such as Geely and Great Wall. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Company Re...
Budget 2026: The People’s Budget Highlights While the Fourth MADANI Budget, themed “The People’s Budget”, is broadly market-neutral as anticipated. Its expansionary stance anchored by tighter fiscal discipline provides a more resilient buffer against external uncertainties. Key highlights include marginally higher development expenditure, a stronger boost to high-value industries, continued cash assistance, Visit Malaysia Year 2026 handouts, higher sin taxes, the introduction of a carbon tax...
Budget 2026 Preview: Elevation, Empowerment And Reformation Highlights As the first budget under the 13MP (to be tabled on 10 October), Budget 2026 is expected to be market-neutral but expansionary, and to anchor on two key pillars – empowering Malaysia’s economy and elevating the rakyat’s wellbeing through structural reforms. While indirect tax measures alongside a more targeted subsidy framework could be introduced/reiterated, its pro-growth, pro-FDI and pro-ESG orientation that drives a n...
2Q25 Results Wrap-up: A Steadier 2H25 Expected As feared, the 2Q25 results season remained underwhelming which we attribute to the US’ highly disruptive trade policies as well as soft domestic consumption. Accordingly, we trim our bottom-up 2025-26 forecasts by 2.8%/2.6% respectively. Nevertheless, with the worst of the US trade policy threats behind us (and factoring in hopes that the Trump administration’s trade policies could be at least partially reversed), we raise our end-25 FBMKLCI target...
2Q25: Within Expectations; Expect Stronger 2H With New Alumina Expansion 1H25 results came in within expectations with earnings mainly driven by higher all-in aluminium prices. We expect a stronger 2H25 with the additional 1m tonnes of alumina capacity from its associate. PMETAL remains committed to long-term vertical growth via: a) developing a new alumina refinery in Indonesia (KAN) to strengthen supply integration, and b) expanding VAP production to enhance margins and profitability. Maintain...
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