Ongoing Supply Constraints And Falling Raw Material Costs To Fuel 2025 Growth While aluminium demand is likely to remain subdued in the near term, we foresee supply disruptions due to China’s production cap, the removal of VAT rebates and US tariffs. Key growth drivers for PMETAL in 2025 include: a) the commencement of new alumina refineries in Indonesia (Nanshan Aluminium), b) lower alumina input costs, c) the expansion of VAP volume, and d) the ongoing supply constraints in aluminium productio...
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity Mixed bag for May. Sector Property Property market weakens further in May 25, with diverging city-tier performance. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ/BUY/Rp454/Target: Rp610) Soaring to new heights; initiate coverage with BUY. MALAYSIA Update Press Metal ...
1Q25: Within Expectations; Expect Stronger 2H With New Alumina Expansion While 1Q25 earnings accounted for 23% of our full-year estimates, we expect a stronger 2H25 with the additional 1m tonnes of alumina capacity from its associate. PMETAL remains committed to long-term vertical growth via: a) developing a new alumina refinery in Indonesia (PT KAN) to strengthen supply integration; b) the listing of Nanshan to secure funding for further capacity expansion; and c) expanding VAP production to en...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PEV sales dip slightly wow. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and XPeng. Results Lenovo Group (992 HK/BUY/HK$9.57/Target: HK$12.10) 4QFY25: Core business is solid, but bottom line impacted by non-core items. Update Shenzhou International Group Holdings (2313 HK/BUY/HK$56.90/Target: HK$85.60) Expect unchanged 10% order volume growth for 2025;...
Opportunities In A Ringgit Resurgence Environment The sharp ringgit appreciation driven by de-dollarisation and thus a broader reallocation of capital toward emerging market currencies support our view of a moderate upside for Malaysian equities. Key beneficiaries include importers and companies with high US dollar debt, while exporters may face margin pressure. While historical parallel suggests temporary trading opportunities, we recommend a tactical trading stance, focusing on value-driven op...
Vertical Expansion And Falling Raw Material Costs Set to Fuel 2025 Growth We expect PMETAL’s growth to resume in 2025, driven by: a) the development of a new alumina refinery in Indonesia to strengthen supply integration; b) lower alumina input costs in 2025; and c) expanding VAP production to improve margins and profitability. While Trump's reciprocal tariffs may reduce downstream aluminium demand, supply constraints from China are expected to mitigate this impact. Maintain BUY with a revised t...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Tariffs curtail US rate cuts, thereby hindering the recovery of Hong Kong property and tourism; Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China property. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25 Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Update Pekat Group (PEKAT MK/BUY/RM1.08/Target: RM1.45) Good earnings visibility over 2025...
Steering Through The Shifts Of A New Global Order Contrary to the earlier rhetoric hinting at milder blanket tariffs, the actual measures were considerably harsher, particularly to countries with significant trade surpluses. However, the exclusion of the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors was a welcome surprise. While this removes an initial overhang, equity risk premium is likely to stay elevated on potential tit-for-tat responses among major economies. Our picks adopt a barbell approach,...
Infusing Some Of China’s Bull Run Malaysian beneficiaries of China’s economic recovery may gain the spotlight, ahead of the anticipated China fiscal stimulus programmes and China president Xi Jinping’s planned visit to Malaysia. Key Bursa-listed companies include companies with China operations (Hong Leong Bank), industrial metal exporters (Press Metal), blockchain platform creator MYEG, and tourism plays (Alpha IVF, Genting Malaysia, Pavilion REIT).
GREATER CHINA Results COSCO SHIPPING Ports (1199 HK/BUY/HK$4.78/Target: HK$5.90) 2024: Core earnings in line; expect low single digit throughput growth in 2025. CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical Co (300765 CH/BUY/Rmb37.00/Target: Rmb50.00) 2024: Smooth progress in R&D promises bright long-term outlook. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company (3692 HK/BUY/HK$20.10/Target:HK$29.00) 2024: Results beat; strong growth momentum continues. Meituan (3690 HK/BUY/HK$167.60/Target: HK$216.00) ...
Strategy: Bloodbath Deepens As Slowdown Fears Intensify; Stay Defensive Defensive Play In Focus For Malaysian Investors Overnight, US stock markets suffered a brutal selloff, with major indices plunging deep into the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 2.08%, while the S&P 500 slid 2.69%. The Nasdaq Composite took the hardest hit, sinking 4.0%, as rate-sensitive technology stocks bore the brunt of the selloff.
4Q24 Results Wrap-up: An Abysmal Quarter We cut our 2024-25 forecasts by 1.3%/2.0% respectively as the 4Q24 results season endured a perfect storm of many non-systemic company-specific issues, resulting in 28% of our universe coverage delivering disappointing results or/and outlook. Although we remain bullish for meaningful recoveries from 2Q25 onwards from the current overly pessimistic risk aversion and in anticipation of easing external headwinds, and retain our valuation methodology, we cut ...
2024: Above Expectations; Strong Associate Contribution And MJP Premium 2024 results came in above expectations, mainly due to stronger-than-expected profitability from Bintan and higher MJP premium. PMETAL remains committed to longterm vertical growth. Key initiatives include: a) developing a new alumina refinery in Indonesia to strengthen supply integration; b) listing Bintan to secure funding for further capacity expansion; and c) expanding VAP production to enhance margins and profitability....
4Q24 Weakness Expected; Focus Remains On Long-term Vertical Growth While 4Q24 results are expected to be weaker sequentially due to a fire and higher alumina costs, PMETAL remains committed to long-term vertical growth. Key initiatives include: a) developing a new alumina refinery in Indonesia to strengthen supply integration; b) listing associate Bintan to secure funding for further capacity expansion; and c) expanding VAP production to enhance margins and profitability. Maintain BUY with an un...
GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer: Satisfactory consumption momentum during CNY. Online Travel Agencies: Spring Festival 2025 propelled by prosperous cross border traffic. INDONESIA Results Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/BUY/Rp5,525/Target: Rp7,000): 2024: Strong loan growth and solid asset quality. MALAYSIA Update Press Metal Aluminium Holdings (PMAH MK/BUY/RM4.98/Target: RM7.00): 4Q24 weakness expected; new alumina refinery and VAP expansion to drive growth ahead. SKP Resources (SKP MK/BUY/RM1.06/Target:...
1H25 Strategy: Relying On Domestic Sparks While Malaysian equities predictably kicked off the year with caution, the FBMKLCI is still adequately charged up by robust domestic-driven liquidity and events. We anticipate the market progressively adopting a risk-on mode as we expect US presidentelect Donald Trump to be pragmatic in executing trade policies. Key domestic investment themes include Iskandar 2.0, data centre rollout, renewable energy, wage hike winners, 4Q24 results season winners and b...
Vertical Expansion For Prolonged Multi-year Growth While horizontal expansion remains constrained by the difficulty of securing additional power supply, we note that PMETAL is pursuing vertical growth through the: a) development of a new alumina refinery in Indonesia, b) listing of PT Bintan to enable further capacity expansion, and c) expansion of VAP production for margin enhancement. We upgrade our 2025-26 earnings estimates by 12% and 17%. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of RM7.00.
GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation: PPI deflation moderates; weaker-than-expected CPI inflation. Sector Property: Latest Politburo meeting vows stronger fiscal and monetary stimulus as well as unconventional counter-cyclical adjustments for 2025. INDONESIA Strategy Key Takeaways From Regional Strategy Conference: Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBTN, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. MALAYSIA Sector Telecommunications: 9M24 earnings grew 4...
1H25 Strategy – Adequately Charged Up While likely to kick off the year with caution, the FBMKLCI is still adequately electrified to deliver good positive gains, charged up by robust domestic liquidity. We introduce our end-25 FBMKLCI target of 1,800, and we anticipate the market to steadily adopt a progressively risk-on mode as we expect US president-elect Donald Trump to be pragmatic in executing trade policies. Key investment themes include Iskandar 2.0, data centre rollout and China’s econom...
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