Budget 2026: The People’s Budget Highlights While the Fourth MADANI Budget, themed “The People’s Budget”, is broadly market-neutral as anticipated. Its expansionary stance anchored by tighter fiscal discipline provides a more resilient buffer against external uncertainties. Key highlights include marginally higher development expenditure, a stronger boost to high-value industries, continued cash assistance, Visit Malaysia Year 2026 handouts, higher sin taxes, the introduction of a carbon tax...
Budget 2026 Preview: Elevation, Empowerment And Reformation Highlights As the first budget under the 13MP (to be tabled on 10 October), Budget 2026 is expected to be market-neutral but expansionary, and to anchor on two key pillars – empowering Malaysia’s economy and elevating the rakyat’s wellbeing through structural reforms. While indirect tax measures alongside a more targeted subsidy framework could be introduced/reiterated, its pro-growth, pro-FDI and pro-ESG orientation that drives a n...
2Q25 Results Wrap-up: A Steadier 2H25 Expected As feared, the 2Q25 results season remained underwhelming which we attribute to the US’ highly disruptive trade policies as well as soft domestic consumption. Accordingly, we trim our bottom-up 2025-26 forecasts by 2.8%/2.6% respectively. Nevertheless, with the worst of the US trade policy threats behind us (and factoring in hopes that the Trump administration’s trade policies could be at least partially reversed), we raise our end-25 FBMKLCI target...
2Q25: Within Expectations; Expect Stronger 2H With New Alumina Expansion 1H25 results came in within expectations with earnings mainly driven by higher all-in aluminium prices. We expect a stronger 2H25 with the additional 1m tonnes of alumina capacity from its associate. PMETAL remains committed to long-term vertical growth via: a) developing a new alumina refinery in Indonesia (KAN) to strengthen supply integration, and b) expanding VAP production to enhance margins and profitability. Maintain...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: YOY PV sales growth turns positive on price cuts. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results AAC Technologies (2018 HK/BUY/HK$43.72/Target: HK$57.70): 1H25: Margins miss due to transition period; meaningful recovery in 2H25. Maintain BUY. AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$73.45/Target: HK$91.00): 1H25: In-line VONB growth; strong OPAT beat. EVE Energy (300014 HK/HOLD/ Rmb48.07/Target: Rmb50.00): 2Q25: Earnings miss due to lowe...
Winners/Losers Of China’s Anti-Involution Policy While still in early days, the recent momentum in China’s anti-involution policy/ movement to curb excessive domestic competition should create winners and losers among Bursa-listed companies. This policy, which should lead to more rational pricing within China’s ultra-competitive sectors, should benefit selected Malaysian companies which export to have associates or subsidiaries in China. Losers could include some China-dependent importers (eg so...
Ongoing Supply Constraints And Falling Raw Material Costs To Fuel 2025 Growth While aluminium demand is likely to remain subdued in the near term, we foresee supply disruptions due to China’s production cap, the removal of VAT rebates and US tariffs. Key growth drivers for PMETAL in 2025 include: a) the commencement of new alumina refineries in Indonesia (Nanshan Aluminium), b) lower alumina input costs, c) the expansion of VAP volume, and d) the ongoing supply constraints in aluminium productio...
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity Mixed bag for May. Sector Property Property market weakens further in May 25, with diverging city-tier performance. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ/BUY/Rp454/Target: Rp610) Soaring to new heights; initiate coverage with BUY. MALAYSIA Update Press Metal ...
1Q25: Within Expectations; Expect Stronger 2H With New Alumina Expansion While 1Q25 earnings accounted for 23% of our full-year estimates, we expect a stronger 2H25 with the additional 1m tonnes of alumina capacity from its associate. PMETAL remains committed to long-term vertical growth via: a) developing a new alumina refinery in Indonesia (PT KAN) to strengthen supply integration; b) the listing of Nanshan to secure funding for further capacity expansion; and c) expanding VAP production to en...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PEV sales dip slightly wow. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and XPeng. Results Lenovo Group (992 HK/BUY/HK$9.57/Target: HK$12.10) 4QFY25: Core business is solid, but bottom line impacted by non-core items. Update Shenzhou International Group Holdings (2313 HK/BUY/HK$56.90/Target: HK$85.60) Expect unchanged 10% order volume growth for 2025;...
Opportunities In A Ringgit Resurgence Environment The sharp ringgit appreciation driven by de-dollarisation and thus a broader reallocation of capital toward emerging market currencies support our view of a moderate upside for Malaysian equities. Key beneficiaries include importers and companies with high US dollar debt, while exporters may face margin pressure. While historical parallel suggests temporary trading opportunities, we recommend a tactical trading stance, focusing on value-driven op...
Vertical Expansion And Falling Raw Material Costs Set to Fuel 2025 Growth We expect PMETAL’s growth to resume in 2025, driven by: a) the development of a new alumina refinery in Indonesia to strengthen supply integration; b) lower alumina input costs in 2025; and c) expanding VAP production to improve margins and profitability. While Trump's reciprocal tariffs may reduce downstream aluminium demand, supply constraints from China are expected to mitigate this impact. Maintain BUY with a revised t...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Tariffs curtail US rate cuts, thereby hindering the recovery of Hong Kong property and tourism; Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China property. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25 Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Update Pekat Group (PEKAT MK/BUY/RM1.08/Target: RM1.45) Good earnings visibility over 2025...
Steering Through The Shifts Of A New Global Order Contrary to the earlier rhetoric hinting at milder blanket tariffs, the actual measures were considerably harsher, particularly to countries with significant trade surpluses. However, the exclusion of the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors was a welcome surprise. While this removes an initial overhang, equity risk premium is likely to stay elevated on potential tit-for-tat responses among major economies. Our picks adopt a barbell approach,...
Infusing Some Of China’s Bull Run Malaysian beneficiaries of China’s economic recovery may gain the spotlight, ahead of the anticipated China fiscal stimulus programmes and China president Xi Jinping’s planned visit to Malaysia. Key Bursa-listed companies include companies with China operations (Hong Leong Bank), industrial metal exporters (Press Metal), blockchain platform creator MYEG, and tourism plays (Alpha IVF, Genting Malaysia, Pavilion REIT).
GREATER CHINA Results COSCO SHIPPING Ports (1199 HK/BUY/HK$4.78/Target: HK$5.90) 2024: Core earnings in line; expect low single digit throughput growth in 2025. CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical Co (300765 CH/BUY/Rmb37.00/Target: Rmb50.00) 2024: Smooth progress in R&D promises bright long-term outlook. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company (3692 HK/BUY/HK$20.10/Target:HK$29.00) 2024: Results beat; strong growth momentum continues. Meituan (3690 HK/BUY/HK$167.60/Target: HK$216.00) ...
Strategy: Bloodbath Deepens As Slowdown Fears Intensify; Stay Defensive Defensive Play In Focus For Malaysian Investors Overnight, US stock markets suffered a brutal selloff, with major indices plunging deep into the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 2.08%, while the S&P 500 slid 2.69%. The Nasdaq Composite took the hardest hit, sinking 4.0%, as rate-sensitive technology stocks bore the brunt of the selloff.
4Q24 Results Wrap-up: An Abysmal Quarter We cut our 2024-25 forecasts by 1.3%/2.0% respectively as the 4Q24 results season endured a perfect storm of many non-systemic company-specific issues, resulting in 28% of our universe coverage delivering disappointing results or/and outlook. Although we remain bullish for meaningful recoveries from 2Q25 onwards from the current overly pessimistic risk aversion and in anticipation of easing external headwinds, and retain our valuation methodology, we cut ...
2024: Above Expectations; Strong Associate Contribution And MJP Premium 2024 results came in above expectations, mainly due to stronger-than-expected profitability from Bintan and higher MJP premium. PMETAL remains committed to longterm vertical growth. Key initiatives include: a) developing a new alumina refinery in Indonesia to strengthen supply integration; b) listing Bintan to secure funding for further capacity expansion; and c) expanding VAP production to enhance margins and profitability....
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