S&P 500 Above Support; Market Dynamics Still Risk-On The Fed injected some volatility into the market last week as they discussed an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP showed the median expected rate cuts for 2025 fell to just 50bps, down from 100bps at the September meeting. At this point we believe this pullback is a buying opportunity, as market dynamics remain risk-on, the S&P 500 remains above 5850 and 5600-5670 supports, and commodity prices (Bloomberg Commodity index, crude oil, and...
Three Sector Upgrades and One Downgrade Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have only improved since our last ETF Pathfinder (11/4/24). In that report we discussed how we were finally getting an opportunity to add exposure on a pre-election pullback that we had been looking for. We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025. We expect to see support at the 20-da...
Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass. This is the point where it became clear that the 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that we called for in late-July (7/25/24 Int'l Compass) was over, and that a new uptrend was underway. We have also been discussing since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the S&P 500 (the U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure, and th...
Downgrading Health Care to Underweight Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The path of least resistance is higher. We have discussed for the past two+ weeks how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback. We expect to see support on the SPX at 5655-5670, and we will remain bullish as long as 5655 support holds. Downgrading Health Care t...
>Q2 net income c.1% below css - Ryanair has just released its Q2 results with net income reported at € 1,431.2m (-5.5% y-o-y), roughly 1% below the consensus compiled by the company standing at € 1,444m, and 1% above our estimates at € 1,415m. Average fares closed up at -7%, with +9% on ancillaries, which comes in line with management’s previously expressed expectations of ‘materially lower’ fares due to softer than anticipated pricing.Unit costs excl. fuel ...
>Q2 net income c.1% below css - Ryanair has just released its Q2 results with net income reported at € 1,431.2m (-5.5% y-o-y), roughly 1% below the consensus compiled by the company standing at € 1,444m, and 1% above our estimates at € 1,415m. Average fares closed up at -7%, with +9% on ancillaries, which comes in line with management’s previously expressed expectations of ‘materially lower’ fares due to softer than anticipated pricing.Unit costs excl. fuel ...
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