reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Three Sector Upgrades and One Downgrade Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have only improved since our last ETF Pathfinder (11/4/24). In that report we discussed how we were finally getting an opportunity to add exposure on a pre-election pullback that we had been looking for. We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025. We expect to see support at the 20-da...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Int'l Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis
Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass. This is the point where it became clear that the 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that we called for in late-July (7/25/24 Int'l Compass) was over, and that a new uptrend was underway. We have also been discussing since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the S&P 500 (the U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure, and th...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Downgrading Health Care to Underweight Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The path of least resistance is higher. We have discussed for the past two+ weeks how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback. We expect to see support on the SPX at 5655-5670, and we will remain bullish as long as 5655 support holds. Downgrading Health Care t...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Oliver Metzger
O2D TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND HOLDING AG
ETL EUTELSAT COMMUNICATIONS SA
SESGL SES SA FDR (CLASS A)
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
BNP BNP PARIBAS SA CLASS A
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EN BOUYGUES SA
GLE SOCIETE GENERALE S.A. CLASS A
UTDI UNITED INTERNET AG
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
GAMA GAMMA COMMUNICATIONS
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
FNTN FREENET AG
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
TEF TELEFONICA SA
NFN NFON AG
DRI 1&1 DRILLISCH AG
STMN STRAUMANN HOLDING AG
- Bruno Cavalier
- Oliver Metzger
O2D TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND HOLDING AG
ETL EUTELSAT COMMUNICATIONS SA
SESGL SES SA FDR (CLASS A)
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
BNP BNP PARIBAS SA CLASS A
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EN BOUYGUES SA
GLE SOCIETE GENERALE S.A. CLASS A
UTDI UNITED INTERNET AG
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
GAMA GAMMA COMMUNICATIONS
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
FNTN FREENET AG
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
TEF TELEFONICA SA
NFN NFON AG
DRI 1&1 DRILLISCH AG
STMN STRAUMANN HOLDING AG
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Ryanair : Q2 2024/2025 PAT c.1% below css – Q3 fare outlook in line wi...
>Q2 net income c.1% below css - Ryanair has just released its Q2 results with net income reported at € 1,431.2m (-5.5% y-o-y), roughly 1% below the consensus compiled by the company standing at € 1,444m, and 1% above our estimates at € 1,415m. Average fares closed up at -7%, with +9% on ancillaries, which comes in line with management’s previously expressed expectations of ‘materially lower’ fares due to softer than anticipated pricing.Unit costs excl. fuel ...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Ryanair : Q2 2024/2025 PAT c.1% below css – Q3 fare outlook in line wi...
>Q2 net income c.1% below css - Ryanair has just released its Q2 results with net income reported at € 1,431.2m (-5.5% y-o-y), roughly 1% below the consensus compiled by the company standing at € 1,444m, and 1% above our estimates at € 1,415m. Average fares closed up at -7%, with +9% on ancillaries, which comes in line with management’s previously expressed expectations of ‘materially lower’ fares due to softer than anticipated pricing.Unit costs excl. fuel ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we are upgrading our outlook to bullish. Since late-July, our outlook has been neutral on the S&P 500 (SPX), preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction. The market is breaking to new highs, hence our upgrade. We would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, as long as the SPX holds a...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
ODDO : Majors begin a phase of upward revisions
Thanks to unit revenue that has proven more resilient than anticipated, real discipline on capacity and a decline in the fuel bill, we expect margins to recover, especially for the legacies. IAG remains our top pick. We are upgrading Air France-KLM and Lufthansa to Neutral and downgrading Ryanair to Underperform as well as WizzAir on Neutral. - >Sights on the legacies: IAG remains our top pick, Air France and Lufthansa upgraded to Neutral - We have the legacies in our ...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
ODDO : Les majors amorcent leur phase de montée
Grâce à une recette unitaire qui se tient mieux que prévu, une discipline capacitaire notable et une baisse de la facture carburant, nous anticipons un rebond des marges tout particulièrement pour les majors. IAG reste notre valeur préférée. Nous relevons Air France-KLM et Lufthansa à Neutre et abaissons Ryanair à Sous-performance ainsi que Wizz Air à Neutre. - >Cap sur les majors: IAG en top pick, Air France et Lufthansa relevées à Neutre - Nous mettons le cap sur le...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Real Estate, Staples, and Health Care The S&P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for over a month; using the 2007 SPX topping analog which has tracked the current market almost perfectly, it would suggest a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which is where we get the 5783 number. As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close a...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Utilities to Overweight Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&P 500 as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023. We believe we are not yet out of the woods as we still see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain a concern. Current price action on the S&P 500 is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns that occurred in April 2000 and August 2007, with 2007 b...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Downgrading Consumer Discretionary to Underweight We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target which we discussed in our 8/5/24 ETF Pathfinder. Still, we have downgraded our long-term outlook to neutral after being bullish since early-November 2023. We believe we are not yet out of the woods as we still see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain a concern. ...
- Carole Braudeau
- Carole Braudeau
- Baptiste Salaville
- Chaima Ferrandon
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Marc Lavaud
- Oddo Sustainability Team
- Sven Edelfelt
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
CA CARREFOUR SA
HO THALES SA
LISN CHOCOLADEFABRIKEN LINDT & SPRUENGLI AG
FGR EIFFAGE SA
RAND RANDSTAD NV
ENI ENI S.P.A.
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
VACN VAT GROUP AG
SAP SAP SE
AKZA AKZO NOBEL N.V.
JDEP JDE PEET'S NV
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
- Baptiste Salaville
- Chaima Ferrandon
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Marc Lavaud
- Oddo Sustainability Team
- Sven Edelfelt
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
CA CARREFOUR SA
HO THALES SA
LISN CHOCOLADEFABRIKEN LINDT & SPRUENGLI AG
FGR EIFFAGE SA
RAND RANDSTAD NV
ENI ENI S.P.A.
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
VACN VAT GROUP AG
SAP SAP SE
AKZA AKZO NOBEL N.V.
JDEP JDE PEET'S NV
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Ryanair : The warning on prices firms up and weighs on profitability
>Stronger pressure on prices... - During the conference call, management's tone appeared particularly cautious with the anticipation of continued pressure on prices notably during the heart of the summer season. After a decline of 15% in Q1, yields are expected to be down by around a further 5% in Q2 but a double-digit decline has not been ruled out if stimulation efforts remain in place (management mentioned that the load factor was 0.5% below the target for August a...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Ryanair : L’avertissement sur les prix se confirme et pèse sur la rent...
>Une pression plus forte sur les prix… - Lors de la conférence téléphonique, le ton du management nous a paru particulièrement prudent avec des anticipations de poursuite de la pression tarifaire notamment sur le cœur de la saison estivale. Après un recul de 15% au T1, les yields sont encore attendus en baisse autour de 5% sur le T2 mais un recul à deux chiffres n’est pas écarté en cas de poursuite des efforts de stimulation (le management mentionnait que les coeffici...
- Benoit Valleaux
- Bruno Cavalier
- Steven Gould
DHL DHL GROUP
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
SLB.N SCHLUMBERGER NV
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
COV COVIVIO SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SAND SANDVIK AB
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
BKT BANKINTER SA
MONC MONCLER SPA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
UMI UMICORE
EPI A EPIROC AB
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
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