reports
- Konrad Zomer
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 30/10/2024
Le scrutin présidentiel US reste incertain, mais le momentum semble être du côté de Donald Trump depuis début octobre : le candidat est désormais en tête dans 6 des 7 swing states, vient de dépasser Kamala Harris dans le vote national et est donné gagnant à 63% chez les parieurs. Nous rappelons les valeurs européennes à privilégier ou à éviter en cas de victoire de Donald Trump, et avons également listé les valeurs européennes ayant une base de production aux US, par nature moins expo...
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
ADS ADIDAS AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
ELE ENDESA S.A.
BAS BASF SE
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
KGX KION GROUP AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
AENA AENA SME SA
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
BP. BP P.L.C.
BIM BIOMERIEUX SA
CPR DAVIDE CAMPARI-MILANO N.V.
GSK GSK PLC
FER FERROVIAL SA
PUIG PUIG BRANDS
- Konrad Zomer
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/30/2024
The outcome of the US presidential election hangs in the balance, but the momentum seems to be with Donald Trump since the beginning of October: the candidate is now in the lead in six of the seven swing states, has just overtaken Kamala Harris in the national vote while 63% of punters are tipping him to win. We recap in the present note on the European stocks to play or avoid in the event of Donald Trump's victory and have also listed European stocks with a production base in the US,...
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
ADS ADIDAS AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
BAS BASF SE
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
KGX KION GROUP AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
AENA AENA SME SA
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
BP. BP P.L.C.
BIM BIOMERIEUX SA
CPR DAVIDE CAMPARI-MILANO N.V.
GSK GSK PLC
FER FERROVIAL SA
PUIG PUIG BRANDS
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
Fortum : Patience and resilience pending a brightening of the outlook
>Nuclear replaces hydro at a slightly higher-than-expected cost - Fortum's 9M 2024 results released yesterday undershot our expectations and the consensus estimates. Like-for-like EBITDA totalled € 254m, (-20% y-o-y), a shade below our forecasts € 262m. EBIT came in at € 158m (-30%) vs ODDO BHF € 170m and net profit stood at € 117m (-43%) vs our forecast of € 125m. By division, the Generation business recorded an EBIT of € 176m (vs ODDO BHF’s estimate of€ 190m), impa...
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
Fortum : Patience et résilience en attendant que les perspectives se d...
>Le nucléaire remplace l’hydro pour un cout un peu plus élevé qu’attendu - Les résultats des 9 premiers mois de 2024 de Fortum, publiés hier, étaient inférieurs à nos attentes et aux estimations du consensus. L'EBITDA comparable s'est établi à 254 M€ (-20 % en glissement annuel), un peu en deçà de nos prévisions de 262 M€. L'EBIT a atteint 158 M€ (-30%) vs ODDO BHF 170 M€ et le résultat net 117 M€ (-43 %) contre notre prévision de 125 M€. Par division, l’activité Gene...
- Oliver Metzger
WCH WACKER CHEMIE AG
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
ADS ADIDAS AG
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
ALV ALLIANZ SE
ISP INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A.
SIX2 SIXT SE
UCG UNICREDIT S.P.A.
BP. BP P.L.C.
DWS DWS GROUP GMBH & CO. KGAA
8TRA TRATON SE
STMN STRAUMANN HOLDING AG
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
Fortum : Result a bit short of expectations
>Weak hydro volumes burdened the performance in the Q3 - Fortum’s 9M 2024 results, reported this morning, fell short of our expectations and consensus estimates. Comparable EBITDA stood at € 254m (-20% y-o-y), a bit shy of our forecast at € 262m. EBIT reached € 158m (-30%) vs. our estimate of € 170m. Net income came in at € 117m (-43%) vs our forecast of € 125m. By division, Generation recorded EBIT of € 176m (vs our estimates at € 190m), impacted by the drop in Hydr...
- Oliver Metzger
WCH WACKER CHEMIE AG
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
ADS ADIDAS AG
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
ALV ALLIANZ SE
ISP INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A.
SIX2 SIXT SE
UCG UNICREDIT S.P.A.
BP. BP P.L.C.
DWS DWS GROUP GMBH & CO. KGAA
8TRA TRATON SE
STMN STRAUMANN HOLDING AG
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
Fortum : Result a bit short of expectations
>Weak hydro volumes burdened the performance in the Q3 - Fortum’s 9M 2024 results, reported this morning, fell short of our expectations and consensus estimates. Comparable EBITDA stood at € 254m (-20% y-o-y), a bit shy of our forecast at € 262m. EBIT reached € 158m (-30%) vs. our estimate of € 170m. Net income came in at € 117m (-43%) vs our forecast of € 125m. By division, Generation recorded EBIT of € 176m (vs our estimates at € 190m), impacted by the drop in Hydr...
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
ODDO : A gradual weaning
‘Soft landing’... the term is in vogue and we think it aptly describes the current situation in the energy market. After a period of “excess profits”, the fundamentals are back in favour and prompt us to revise down our estimates for energy prices. - Alongside renewable energies, pockets of sustainable value creation are emerging for players capable of capitalising on the structural growth in volatility on the electricity markets but which are nonetheless trading at a discount In ...
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
ENGI ENGIE SA.
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
EOAN E.ON SE
ENI ENI S.P.A.
ELE ENDESA S.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
RWE RWE AG
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
ENEL ENEL SPA
REP REPSOL SA
GAS NATURGY ENERGY GROUP S.A.
IBE IBERDROLA SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
SHEL SHELL PLC
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
ODDO : Un sevrage dans la douceur
“Soft landing”… le terme est à la mode et nous pensons qu’il caractérise bien la situation du marché de l’énergie aujourd’hui. Après une parenthèse de « surprofits », les fondamentaux reprennent leur droit et nous conduisent à réviser en baisse nos hypothèses de prix de l’énergie. A côté du renouvelable, des poches pérennes de création de valeur apparaissent pour les acteurs capables de profiter de la croissance structurelle de la volatilité des marchés électriques et qui souffre...
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
ENGI ENGIE SA.
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
EOAN E.ON SE
ENI ENI S.P.A.
ELE ENDESA S.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
RWE RWE AG
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
ENEL ENEL SPA
REP REPSOL SA
GAS NATURGY ENERGY GROUP S.A.
IBE IBERDROLA SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
SHEL SHELL PLC
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Bruno Cavalier
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 09/09/2024
At the 15th edition of our Corporate Conference, hosted jointly by ODDO BHF and Commerzbank, the presenting corporates were still focused on the macroeconomic environment and the related impact on their sectors. Regionally, the US remains resilient at good levels, while China and Europe are lagging behind. Germany in particular is seen as sluggish. Hence, we observed a mixed picture across the 89 companies presenting at our conference. We were positively surprised by statements from a...
ENGI ENGIE SA.
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
EOAN E.ON SE
ELE ENDESA S.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
SAN SANOFI
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
ENEL ENEL SPA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
GAS NATURGY ENERGY GROUP S.A.
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
MONC MONCLER SPA
IBE IBERDROLA SA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Bruno Cavalier
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 09/09/2024
At the 15th edition of our Corporate Conference, hosted jointly by ODDO BHF and Commerzbank, the presenting corporates were still focused on the macroeconomic environment and the related impact on their sectors. Regionally, the US remains resilient at good levels, while China and Europe are lagging behind. Germany in particular is seen as sluggish. Hence, we observed a mixed picture across the 89 companies presenting at our conference. We were positively surprised by statements from a...
ENGI ENGIE SA.
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
EOAN E.ON SE
ELE ENDESA S.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
SAN SANOFI
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
ENEL ENEL SPA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
GAS NATURGY ENERGY GROUP S.A.
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
MONC MONCLER SPA
IBE IBERDROLA SA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
UN0 UNIPER SE
PUIG PUIG BRANDS
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
ODDO : Curtailments in Brazil, limited impact on Iberdrola, Enel and E...
>Recap of the announcement made by Votalia on 20 August - On 20 August, Voltalia announced that the Brazilian transmission network operator was imposing a sizeable curtailment on some parts of the network which will impact group 2024 EBITDA to the tune of € 40m, if these measures to reduce inflow continue over the next few months and if the group is not compensated financially. The curtailment on production volumes for Voltalia in the northeast portion of the network ...
ENGI ENGIE SA.
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
EOAN E.ON SE
ELE ENDESA S.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
ENEL ENEL SPA
GAS NATURGY ENERGY GROUP S.A.
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
IBE IBERDROLA SA
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
ODDO : Les effacements au Brésil, peu d’impacts sur Iberdrola, Enel et...
>Rappel des faits annoncés par Voltalia le 20 août dernier - Le 20 août dernier, Voltalia a annoncé que l’opérateur du réseau de transmission brésilien impose actuellement des écrêtements prononcés dans certaines parties du réseau qui impacterait l’EBITDA 2024 du groupe à hauteur de 40 M€, si ces mesures de réduction d’injection se prolongeaient au cours des prochains mois et si le groupe n’était pas compensé financièrement. Le volume d’écrêtement de la production de ...
ENGI ENGIE SA.
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
EOAN E.ON SE
ELE ENDESA S.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
ENEL ENEL SPA
GAS NATURGY ENERGY GROUP S.A.
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
IBE IBERDROLA SA
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Shift Now to Defensives Snap-back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe). With that said, Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, we continue to believe lower highs remain likely in both Japan and Europe. The S&P 500 is testing its YTD highs, something we have been looking for since our August 13, 2024 Compass, and we still believe it could make a ...
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
Fortum : Confirms its profile as a yield company
>Interim results publication undershoots our expectations but ahead of the consensus - Fortum published on Thursday, 15 August, a set of H1 2024 results which were undershot our expectations but topped those of the consensus. Like-for-like EBITDA totalled €948m (down 16% y-o-y), below ODDO BHF (€ 980m) but above the Vara consensus estimate (€ 923m). Like-for-like operating profit came in at € 763m (-21%), compared with our forecast of € 813m (consensus € 735m). Recurr...
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
Fortum : Confirme son profil de valeur de rendement
>Une publication inférieure à nos attentes mais au-dessus du consensus - Fortum a publié hier ses résultats pour le S1 2024 inférieurs à nos attentes mais supérieurs à celles du consensus. L'EBITDA comparable s’élève à 948 M€ (-16% YoY), inférieur à ODDO BHF (980 M€) mais supérieur aux estimations du consensus Vara (923 M€). Le résultat opérationnel comparable ressort à 763 M€ (-21%), notre prévision étant de 813 M€ (consensus à 735 M€). Le résultat net récurrent a su...
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