reports
- Russell Waller
Altice France bonds (Equal Weight) Altice France equity (Neutral, TP: ...
The consortium bid is for Altice France ex XpFibre (XP), Altice Technical Services (ATS), French Overseas Territories (FOT), Intelcia, and UltraEdge (UE). The consortium valued these assets at €4bn. Disclosure is limited, but we’ve done some more digging, and have found some accounts filed in France, that help us value these assets more accurately, we think.
- Russell Waller
Digi (Equal Weight) Orange (Buy, TP: €18.9, +27%) Telefonica (Reduce, ...
Press reports are suggesting that a Tef-Zegona deal in Spain is progressing. We wrote about that HERE. A deal will be tricky for a variety of reasons, but if Digi is a willing remedy taker and if Telefonica/ Zegona are willing to give very substantial remedies (which is a big if), then the deal might receive regulatory approval we think.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Altice France Bonds (Equal Weight) Altice France Equity (Neutral, TP: ...
The valuation of fibre assets is important for all Telco investors, but especially those looking at Altice France and Altice International. In this report we look at recent fibre deals and see if we can draw any conclusions Over a month has now passed since the consortium bid for SFR (HERE); whilst face-to-face negotiations do not appear to be happening (as per Q3 calls), it would appear that negotiations via the press are in full swing – HERE and HERE – and back channel discussions are ongoing ...
- Russell Waller
Altice France Bonds (Equal Weight) Altice France Equity (Neutral, TP: ...
The valuation of fibre assets is important for all Telco investors, but especially those looking at Altice France and Altice International. In this report we look at recent fibre deals and see if we can draw any conclusions from those deals about future valuations.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
- Russell Waller
NOS (Sell, TP: €3.11, -18%) Digi (Underweight) Altice International (E...
One of the key questions in European Telecoms at the moment is how successful will Digi be in Portugal, Spain and Belgium; and to a lesser extent, how successful can the challengers be in general: Salt, Iliad Italy, and so on. In this report, we take a top-down look at how spectrum drives success in European mobile, and what that means for future outcomes.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
NOS (Neutral, TP: €3.7, -2%) Q4 24: Digi impact? What Digi impact?
NOS has reported yet another good set of numbers, with Telco revenue and EBITDA +3.4% and +7.8% ahead of consensus expectations respectively. There is very little, if any, evidence of Digi impact in the numbers (which was the same for Vodafone Portugal).
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +35%) Altice France (SFR); High Yield (Overweigh...
Last night Bouygues announced a surprise change to tariffs and updated some of its guidance. The new tariffs revolve around discounts for multiple SIMs, and follow on from Iliad’s family plan announcement on 1 October. We give our take on the new plans and the impact to the market in this short piece.
- Jonathan Chaplin
2Q24 Broadband Trends: Are fiber builds accelerating?
In this iteration of “Broadband Trends” we explore whether fiber builds are accelerating and how it will impact Cable’s subscriber growth. We also reprise our work on the competitive positioning of the various operators based on relative NPS scores.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Altice Pre-3Q24 Model Update
This report covers changes to our model to incorporate recent management commentary at investor conferences. We have increased broadband losses estimate. We also lowered revenue and EBITDA slightly. The company needs to stabilize EBITDA and reduce leverage. Progress on the first remains sluggish and the second won’t be easy. We remain on the sidelines.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELECOMS REFRESH: Can the outperformance continue?
When was the last time we could write that the EU Telecoms sector has been the second best performing sector in the market YTD? As a result, this raises the question of whether the outperformance can continue. We believe regulation will ultimately determine the answer to this question.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
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