reports
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
- Russell Waller
NOS (Sell, TP: €3.11, -18%) Digi (Underweight) Altice International (E...
One of the key questions in European Telecoms at the moment is how successful will Digi be in Portugal, Spain and Belgium; and to a lesser extent, how successful can the challengers be in general: Salt, Iliad Italy, and so on. In this report, we take a top-down look at how spectrum drives success in European mobile, and what that means for future outcomes.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
NOS (Neutral, TP: €3.7, -2%) Q4 24: Digi impact? What Digi impact?
NOS has reported yet another good set of numbers, with Telco revenue and EBITDA +3.4% and +7.8% ahead of consensus expectations respectively. There is very little, if any, evidence of Digi impact in the numbers (which was the same for Vodafone Portugal).
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +35%) Altice France (SFR); High Yield (Overweigh...
Last night Bouygues announced a surprise change to tariffs and updated some of its guidance. The new tariffs revolve around discounts for multiple SIMs, and follow on from Iliad’s family plan announcement on 1 October. We give our take on the new plans and the impact to the market in this short piece.
- Jonathan Chaplin
2Q24 Broadband Trends: Are fiber builds accelerating?
In this iteration of “Broadband Trends” we explore whether fiber builds are accelerating and how it will impact Cable’s subscriber growth. We also reprise our work on the competitive positioning of the various operators based on relative NPS scores.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Altice Pre-3Q24 Model Update
This report covers changes to our model to incorporate recent management commentary at investor conferences. We have increased broadband losses estimate. We also lowered revenue and EBITDA slightly. The company needs to stabilize EBITDA and reduce leverage. Progress on the first remains sluggish and the second won’t be easy. We remain on the sidelines.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELECOMS REFRESH: Can the outperformance continue?
When was the last time we could write that the EU Telecoms sector has been the second best performing sector in the market YTD? As a result, this raises the question of whether the outperformance can continue. We believe regulation will ultimately determine the answer to this question.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Altice France (Most Preferred) Altice International (Most Preferred) ...
Sotheby’s has announced that it has sold a minority stake to ADQ, an Abu Dhabi-based investment and holding company for US$1bn. Under the terms of the agreement, “ADQ will acquire newly issued shares of Sotheby’s to reduce leverage and support the company’s growth and innovation plans” – details are thin, but in this short piece we look at how the proceeds might be used and how the price compares to our valaution.
- Russell Waller
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Russell Waller
- Vikash Harlalka
2Q24 Broadband Preview
Broadband industry growth has slowed over the last couple of quarters. For 2Q24, we expect reported broadband net adds below last year and pre-pandemic levels. We estimate that after adjusting for the one-time impact of ACP related disconnects, net adds were still below last year but were in-line with pre-pandemic levels. We think consensus expectations for the quarter are a little too negative, especially for Cable, and we expect reported adds to be slightly better than expectations.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU Telecoms: Half-time report 2024 Sector should still be able to out...
European Telecoms has had a reasonable first half of 2024 – up 7% vs. the market up 9% - and is up 15% since January 2022 – bang in line with the EU market. The sector trades in line with the market on P/E for similar earnings growth, but we still see two major structural levers of upside:
- Jonathan Chaplin
Altice Model Update
Broadband subscriber losses in 2Q24 will likely be better than we thought previously because more of the ACP impact will be in 3Q24 than we thought previously (full year estimate remains unchanged). We also lowered revenue and EBITDA slightly. The company needs to stabilize EBITDA and reduce leverage. Progress on the first is slow and the second won’t be easy as it seems debtholders have organized. We remain on the sidelines.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.