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Chun Sung Oong ... (+2)
  • Chun Sung Oong
  • Julia Pan Mengyao

China Education Group (839 HK): 1HFY22: Steady performance underpinned...

CEG reported a strong set of 1HFY22 results. Revenue grew 28.9% yoy to Rmb2,350m, meeting 52% of the street’s full-year FY22 estimate, driven by a 44% growth in the higher vocational education segment, offset by a 8%/36% yoy decline from the secondary vocational and global education segments. Gross profit margin was flattish yoy at 59.3% during 1HFY22. Adjusted net profit grew by 20.1% yoy to Rmb908.6m, meeting 49.7% of the street’s full-year estimate. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$8.00.

Carolyn Ching ... (+10)
  • Carolyn Ching
  • Chun Sung Oong
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ken Lee
  • Peerawat Dentananan
  • Sabrina Soh
  • Thailand Research Team
  • Tham Mun Hon
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, May 03, 2022

GREATER CHINA Economics PMI: PMIs slumping into contraction show the cost of zero-COVID. Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.59/Target: HK$8.05): 1Q22: Results in line; expect 2022 NIM to be under pressure. China Education Group (839 HK/BUY/HK$6.81/Target: HK$8.00): 1HFY22: Steady performance underpinned by organic growth; interim dividend scrapped. Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH/BUY/Rmb409.11/Target: Rmb670.00): 1Q22: Earnings down 24% yoy on margin squeeze, missing est...

Carolyn Ching ... (+9)
  • Carolyn Ching
  • Chun Sung Oong
  • Jason Wong Chun Sang
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ken Lee
  • Sabrina Soh
  • Tham Mun Hon
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Greater China Daily: Tuesday, May 3, 2022

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI PMIs slumping into contraction show the cost of zero-COVID. Results Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 HK/BUY/Rmb409.35/Target: Rmb670.00) 1Q22: Earnings down 24% yoy on margin squeeze, missing estimates. Trim target price from Rmb740.00 to Rmb670.00. Maintain BUY. China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.59/Target: HK$8.05) 1Q22: Results in line; expect 2022 NIM to be under pressure. China Education Group (839 HK/BUY/HK$6.81/Target: HK$8.00) 1HFY22: Steady ...

Chun Sung Oong ... (+2)
  • Chun Sung Oong
  • Julia Pan Mengyao

China Education: Finalising vocational education law.

The Vocational Education Law was passed at the 34th NPC meeting and will be enforced from 1 May 22. The law will serve as a near-term catalyst in improving investors’ sentiment towards the private higher education segment; however we do not foresee a meaningful earnings contribution given that vocational education typically charges lower tuition fees and provides lower margins as compared with the undergraduate segment. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector.

Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

China Strategy: Alpha Picks: April conviction calls.

The sharp rebound in mid-March is likely to form at least an intermediate low. We expect further upside in April as reflationary policies kick in and investors’ concerns on the property sector and ADR listing status are also being progressively addressed. That said, equities could remain volatile as COVID-19 restrictions may still dampen investors’ sentiment in the near term. Add CEG, CIFI Holding and Ganfeng Lithium to our BUY list, with the latter benefitting from the global commodity price re...

Chun Sung Oong ... (+2)
  • Chun Sung Oong
  • Julia Pan Mengyao

China Education: Attractive valuation; awaiting clearer policy ahead.

Both CEG and Edvantage group are still struggling to recover from the heavy selldown in late-Jan 22, which was when we downgraded the sector. Although the companies had refuted investors’ concerns on prohibiting M&As, VIE, listing and raising tuition fees, key things to watch out for will be organic growth, and stats on private schools selecting for-profit or not-for-profit statuses. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT pending clearer updates on the selection of profit/non-profit status or clearer policy ...

Chun Sung Oong ... (+2)
  • Chun Sung Oong
  • Julia Pan Mengyao

China Education: Dangling in the air.

China’s PHE sector has been hit hard by the recent rumours of potentially tighter regulatory risks ie prohibiting M&As, listing, and raising of tuition fees. It is still too early for us to comment given that the rumours contradicted the previous supportive tone when the Private School Promotion Law was published in May 21. We also see other risks in the sector, such as uncertainty in choosing profit/non-profit schools as well as an unfavourable M&A landscape. Downgrade to MARKETWEIGHT.

Greater China Research Team ... (+5)
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Johnny Yum
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Singapore Research Team
  • Thailand Research Team

REG: Strategy: Alpha Picks - January 2022

GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls: We expect the indices to rebound in January on better policy news flow and improving investor sentiments. Add Venus MedTech, replace JD.com with Alibaba on our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Drop SMRA, ERAA and Add BBNI: Our picks: UNVR, SIDO, JSMR, BMRI, TLKM, KLBF, ROTI, EXCL and BBNI. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Embracing The High Beta Picks: Dec 21 alpha picks portfolio significantly outperformed the FBMKLCI, cappi...

NEH NETEASE INC. SPONSORED ADR
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
STEC SINO-THAI ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION PCL
AMATA AMATA CORP
BBNI PT BANK NEGARA INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
F34 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
601899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
002594 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
BEM BANGKOK EXPRESSWAY AND METRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
UNVR PT UNILEVER INDONESIA TBK
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
EXCL PT XL AXIATA TBK
Y92 THAI BEVERAGE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
HANA HANA MICROELECTRONICS PCL
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
ROTI NIPPON INDOSARI CORPINDO
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
PTI TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK PT (ADR)
BDMS-R BANGKOK DUSIT MEDICAL SERVICES PCL NVDR
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
SMM SEMBCORP MARINE LTD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
ART ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
839 CHINA EDUCATION GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
SAPE SAPURA ENERGY BHD
GENM GENTING MALAYSIA BHD
916 CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP-H
BRC BRC ASIA LTD
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
2331 LI NING CO LTD
UAG UNI-ASIA GROUP LTD
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
SENTRAL SENTRAL REIT
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
FLT FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER HOLDINGS CO LTD
CVL CIVMEC
2500 VENUS MEDTECH (HANGZHOU) INC.
Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

China Strategy : Alpha Picks: January conviction calls.

The Chinese equity market remained volatile in Dec 21 as surges of Omicron outbreaks clouded economic revival efforts amid regulators’ efforts to offer clarity on the policy front. Despite the setbacks, based on our expectations that peak regulatory risks have passed with most of the bad news already priced in, we expect the Chinese market to offer some bargains in 2022, supported by more favourable shifts in monetary policy.

Greater China Research Team ... (+2)
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Tham Mun Hon

Greater China Market Strategy : 2022 - A slow climb up.

While still facing a wall of worries, Chinese equities are expected to recover in 2022 on easing COVID-19 fears, peaking of regulatory risks and supportive macro policies. We see a potential upside of 17.9% for the MSCI China index by 2Q22 and expect EV, IT hardware, renewable energy and consumption-related names to outperform. Potential thawing of Sino-US relationship would also be positive for exporters, apparel, auto parts, electronics and appliances.

Carolyn Ching ... (+3)
  • Carolyn Ching
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Tham Mun Hon

China Market Strategy: 2022 - A slow climb up.

While still facing a wall of worries, Chinese equities are expected to recover in 2022 on easing COVID-19 fears, peaking of regulatory risks and supportive macro policies. We see a potential upside of 16.5% for the MSCI China index by 2Q22 and expect EV, IT hardware, renewable energy and consumption-related names to outperform. Potential thawing of Sino-US relationship would also be positive for exporters, apparel, auto parts, electronics and appliances. - A bruising 2021. The MSCI China index ...

Greater China Research Team ... (+5)
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Johnny Yum
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Singapore Research Team
  • Thailand Research Team

REG: Strategy: Alpha Picks - December 2021

GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls: We expect the indices to rebound in December on better policy newsflow and easing of COVID-19 fears. Add China Education Group, JD.com and NetEase to our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformed Four Months In A Row: Our portfolio outperformed despite a market correction. Add EXCL. Our picks: UNVR, SIDO, JSMR, SMRA, BMRI, ERAA, TLKM, KLBF, ROTI and EXCL. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Braving The Short Turbulence: Nov...

NEH NETEASE INC. SPONSORED ADR
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
STEC SINO-THAI ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION PCL
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
F34 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
601899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
002594 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
BEM BANGKOK EXPRESSWAY AND METRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
UNVR PT UNILEVER INDONESIA TBK
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
EXCL PT XL AXIATA TBK
Y92 THAI BEVERAGE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
HANA HANA MICROELECTRONICS PCL
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
ROTI NIPPON INDOSARI CORPINDO
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
PTI TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK PT (ADR)
BDMS-R BANGKOK DUSIT MEDICAL SERVICES PCL NVDR
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
SMM SEMBCORP MARINE LTD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
ART ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
839 CHINA EDUCATION GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
SAPE SAPURA ENERGY BHD
GENM GENTING MALAYSIA BHD
916 CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP-H
BRC BRC ASIA LTD
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
2331 LI NING CO LTD
UAG UNI-ASIA GROUP LTD
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
FLT FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER HOLDINGS CO LTD
CVL CIVMEC
Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

China Strategy : Alpha picks: December conviction calls.

The Chinese equities market remained volatile in Nov 21, with the emergence of Omicron further adding to concerns about policy uncertainty, a slowing economy and corporate profits. Despite the setbacks, we expect relief in the coming weeks as the Omicron scare wears off and the Economic Work Conference provides clarity on likely growth supportive measures to be rolled out in 2022. Complementing this, we add China Education Group, JD.com and NetEase to our BUY list.

Akhmad Nurcahyadi ... (+12)
  • Akhmad Nurcahyadi
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Chun Sung Oong
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jie Ying Chloe Tan
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Kowit Pongwinyoo
  • Singapore Research Team
  • Sunny Chen
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik

Regional Morning Notes - Friday, November 26, 2021

GREATER CHINA Results Ali Health (241 HK/SELL/HK$7.78/Target: HK$7.00): 1HFY22: Revenue growth slowed to 30.7% yoy; outlook remains weak. China Education Group (839 HK/BUY/HK$14.78/Target: HK$20.00): FY21: Upbeat results; growth underpinned by supportive policy. INDONESIA Update Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ/BUY/Rp1,085/Target: Rp1,200): Marketing sales up by 12.4% yoy in 2022 driven by zero downpayments and low mortgage rate. MALAYSIA Results Genting Malaysia (GENM MK/BUY/RM3.01/Target: RM4.00...

Chun Sung Oong ... (+2)
  • Chun Sung Oong
  • Julia Pan Mengyao

China Education Group (839 HK) : FY21: Upbeat results; Growth underpin...

CEG reported a strong set of FY21 results. Revenue came in at Rmb3,682m, up 37.5% yoy, within our and consensus estimates. Gross margin after adjusting for conversion of independent colleges into private universities was 60.8%, expanding 100bp yoy. Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding one-off independent college conversion fees of Rmb259.7m) was Rmb1,546m, up 57% yoy, 6.3% above street estimates. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$20.00.

Carol Dou Xiao Qin ... (+5)
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Chun Sung Oong
  • Joyce Chan Pui Lai
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Sunny Chen

Greater China Daily: Friday, November 26, 2021

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Ali Health (241 HK/SELL/HK$7.78/Target: HK$7.00) 1HFY22: Revenue growth slowed to 30.7% yoy; outlook remains weak. China Education Group (839 HK/BUY/HK$14.78/Target: HK$20.00) FY21: Upbeat results; growth underpinned by supportive policy. TRADERS’ CORNER Want Want China (151 HK): Trading Buy Range: HK$6.43-6.44 SITC (1308 HK): Trading Buy Range: HK$28.30-28.35

Sumeet Singh
  • Sumeet Singh

China Education Group Placement

China Education Group (839 HK) is looking to raise up to US$154m in its top-up placement. This will be the third placement by the group over the past 15 months. We covered the previous placement in Jan 21, China Education Group Placement - Back for More, past Deal Didn’t Do Well. In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics and run the deal through framework.

Chun Sung Oong ... (+2)
  • Chun Sung Oong
  • Julia Pan Mengyao

China Education : Time to shine with continued support from government...

The General Office of the CPC and State Council has released a notice on “Promoting Modern Vocational Education Development”, requiring higher education players to prioritise vocational education offerings, speed up the vocational education enrolment and examination system, and promote apprenticeship programmes. CEG’s management is delighted by the policy. We remain positive on China’s higher private education outlook and our top pick is CEG (839 HK).

Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

China Strategy : Alpha Picks: October conviction calls.

September has shaped up to be a tough month for the Chinese equities markets which could stay volatile in October as the unfolding debt crisis in the property sector, regulatory crackdowns and power crunch weigh on investors’ sentiment. We are adding relatively defensive names to our portfolio – we add Longyuan Power and Yili Group to our BUY list and swap out CSPC Pharma with Mindray and WuXi Bio.

Greater China Research Team ... (+2)
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Tham Mun Hon

China Market Strategy: Tough love.

Common prosperity, while necessary for sustainable growth, will no doubt cause short-term pain and uncertainty as the economy realigns. With growth slowing as well, Chinese equities may see renewed weakness in the near term. On a more positive note, we expect policy support to be stepped up in 4Q21 and prefer beneficiaries of policy reflation, improvement in mass market consumption and industrial upgrading.

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