CEG reported a strong set of 1HFY22 results. Revenue grew 28.9% yoy to Rmb2,350m, meeting 52% of the street’s full-year FY22 estimate, driven by a 44% growth in the higher vocational education segment, offset by a 8%/36% yoy decline from the secondary vocational and global education segments. Gross profit margin was flattish yoy at 59.3% during 1HFY22. Adjusted net profit grew by 20.1% yoy to Rmb908.6m, meeting 49.7% of the street’s full-year estimate. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$8.00.
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI: PMIs slumping into contraction show the cost of zero-COVID. Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.59/Target: HK$8.05): 1Q22: Results in line; expect 2022 NIM to be under pressure. China Education Group (839 HK/BUY/HK$6.81/Target: HK$8.00): 1HFY22: Steady performance underpinned by organic growth; interim dividend scrapped. Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH/BUY/Rmb409.11/Target: Rmb670.00): 1Q22: Earnings down 24% yoy on margin squeeze, missing est...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI PMIs slumping into contraction show the cost of zero-COVID. Results Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 HK/BUY/Rmb409.35/Target: Rmb670.00) 1Q22: Earnings down 24% yoy on margin squeeze, missing estimates. Trim target price from Rmb740.00 to Rmb670.00. Maintain BUY. China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.59/Target: HK$8.05) 1Q22: Results in line; expect 2022 NIM to be under pressure. China Education Group (839 HK/BUY/HK$6.81/Target: HK$8.00) 1HFY22: Steady ...
The Vocational Education Law was passed at the 34th NPC meeting and will be enforced from 1 May 22. The law will serve as a near-term catalyst in improving investors’ sentiment towards the private higher education segment; however we do not foresee a meaningful earnings contribution given that vocational education typically charges lower tuition fees and provides lower margins as compared with the undergraduate segment. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector.
The sharp rebound in mid-March is likely to form at least an intermediate low. We expect further upside in April as reflationary policies kick in and investors’ concerns on the property sector and ADR listing status are also being progressively addressed. That said, equities could remain volatile as COVID-19 restrictions may still dampen investors’ sentiment in the near term. Add CEG, CIFI Holding and Ganfeng Lithium to our BUY list, with the latter benefitting from the global commodity price re...
Both CEG and Edvantage group are still struggling to recover from the heavy selldown in late-Jan 22, which was when we downgraded the sector. Although the companies had refuted investors’ concerns on prohibiting M&As, VIE, listing and raising tuition fees, key things to watch out for will be organic growth, and stats on private schools selecting for-profit or not-for-profit statuses. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT pending clearer updates on the selection of profit/non-profit status or clearer policy ...
China’s PHE sector has been hit hard by the recent rumours of potentially tighter regulatory risks ie prohibiting M&As, listing, and raising of tuition fees. It is still too early for us to comment given that the rumours contradicted the previous supportive tone when the Private School Promotion Law was published in May 21. We also see other risks in the sector, such as uncertainty in choosing profit/non-profit schools as well as an unfavourable M&A landscape. Downgrade to MARKETWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls: We expect the indices to rebound in January on better policy news flow and improving investor sentiments. Add Venus MedTech, replace JD.com with Alibaba on our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Drop SMRA, ERAA and Add BBNI: Our picks: UNVR, SIDO, JSMR, BMRI, TLKM, KLBF, ROTI, EXCL and BBNI. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Embracing The High Beta Picks: Dec 21 alpha picks portfolio significantly outperformed the FBMKLCI, cappi...
The Chinese equity market remained volatile in Dec 21 as surges of Omicron outbreaks clouded economic revival efforts amid regulators’ efforts to offer clarity on the policy front. Despite the setbacks, based on our expectations that peak regulatory risks have passed with most of the bad news already priced in, we expect the Chinese market to offer some bargains in 2022, supported by more favourable shifts in monetary policy.
While still facing a wall of worries, Chinese equities are expected to recover in 2022 on easing COVID-19 fears, peaking of regulatory risks and supportive macro policies. We see a potential upside of 17.9% for the MSCI China index by 2Q22 and expect EV, IT hardware, renewable energy and consumption-related names to outperform. Potential thawing of Sino-US relationship would also be positive for exporters, apparel, auto parts, electronics and appliances.
While still facing a wall of worries, Chinese equities are expected to recover in 2022 on easing COVID-19 fears, peaking of regulatory risks and supportive macro policies. We see a potential upside of 16.5% for the MSCI China index by 2Q22 and expect EV, IT hardware, renewable energy and consumption-related names to outperform. Potential thawing of Sino-US relationship would also be positive for exporters, apparel, auto parts, electronics and appliances. - A bruising 2021. The MSCI China index ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls: We expect the indices to rebound in December on better policy newsflow and easing of COVID-19 fears. Add China Education Group, JD.com and NetEase to our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformed Four Months In A Row: Our portfolio outperformed despite a market correction. Add EXCL. Our picks: UNVR, SIDO, JSMR, SMRA, BMRI, ERAA, TLKM, KLBF, ROTI and EXCL. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Braving The Short Turbulence: Nov...
The Chinese equities market remained volatile in Nov 21, with the emergence of Omicron further adding to concerns about policy uncertainty, a slowing economy and corporate profits. Despite the setbacks, we expect relief in the coming weeks as the Omicron scare wears off and the Economic Work Conference provides clarity on likely growth supportive measures to be rolled out in 2022. Complementing this, we add China Education Group, JD.com and NetEase to our BUY list.
GREATER CHINA Results Ali Health (241 HK/SELL/HK$7.78/Target: HK$7.00): 1HFY22: Revenue growth slowed to 30.7% yoy; outlook remains weak. China Education Group (839 HK/BUY/HK$14.78/Target: HK$20.00): FY21: Upbeat results; growth underpinned by supportive policy. INDONESIA Update Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ/BUY/Rp1,085/Target: Rp1,200): Marketing sales up by 12.4% yoy in 2022 driven by zero downpayments and low mortgage rate. MALAYSIA Results Genting Malaysia (GENM MK/BUY/RM3.01/Target: RM4.00...
CEG reported a strong set of FY21 results. Revenue came in at Rmb3,682m, up 37.5% yoy, within our and consensus estimates. Gross margin after adjusting for conversion of independent colleges into private universities was 60.8%, expanding 100bp yoy. Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding one-off independent college conversion fees of Rmb259.7m) was Rmb1,546m, up 57% yoy, 6.3% above street estimates. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$20.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Ali Health (241 HK/SELL/HK$7.78/Target: HK$7.00) 1HFY22: Revenue growth slowed to 30.7% yoy; outlook remains weak. China Education Group (839 HK/BUY/HK$14.78/Target: HK$20.00) FY21: Upbeat results; growth underpinned by supportive policy. TRADERS’ CORNER Want Want China (151 HK): Trading Buy Range: HK$6.43-6.44 SITC (1308 HK): Trading Buy Range: HK$28.30-28.35
China Education Group (839 HK) is looking to raise up to US$154m in its top-up placement. This will be the third placement by the group over the past 15 months. We covered the previous placement in Jan 21, China Education Group Placement - Back for More, past Deal Didn’t Do Well. In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics and run the deal through framework.
The General Office of the CPC and State Council has released a notice on “Promoting Modern Vocational Education Development”, requiring higher education players to prioritise vocational education offerings, speed up the vocational education enrolment and examination system, and promote apprenticeship programmes. CEG’s management is delighted by the policy. We remain positive on China’s higher private education outlook and our top pick is CEG (839 HK).
September has shaped up to be a tough month for the Chinese equities markets which could stay volatile in October as the unfolding debt crisis in the property sector, regulatory crackdowns and power crunch weigh on investors’ sentiment. We are adding relatively defensive names to our portfolio – we add Longyuan Power and Yili Group to our BUY list and swap out CSPC Pharma with Mindray and WuXi Bio.
Common prosperity, while necessary for sustainable growth, will no doubt cause short-term pain and uncertainty as the economy realigns. With growth slowing as well, Chinese equities may see renewed weakness in the near term. On a more positive note, we expect policy support to be stepped up in 4Q21 and prefer beneficiaries of policy reflation, improvement in mass market consumption and industrial upgrading.
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