Following the attack on Iran by the US and Israel late last month which targeted key military sites and strategic infrastructure, as well as a retaliation by Iran, there have been structural shifts in the oil & gas and energy markets. In this report, we discuss the effects of these structural shifts, as well as the impact of the conflict on global supply chains and our coverage universe.
Sappi reported soft Q1/25-26 results yesterday, with sales down 5.6% y-o-y and adjusted EBITDA fell 56%. FCF improved, but remained modestly negative. Net leverage rose materially in the quarter, owing to the EBITDA decline. The company expects Q2 adjusted EBITDA to fall sequentially. The Q1 results were weighed down by challenging market conditions and poor price development. We foresee that net leverage will improve over the course of the year, returning to the mid to high 3x region.
Sappi reported weak Q4/24-25 results yesterday, with sales down 5.1% y-o-y and adjusted EBITDA sliding 51% owing to adverse development in price and mix. FCF improved y-o-y, while net leverage rose 0.6x sequentially to 3.8x. Sappi expects Q1/25-26 adjusted EBITDA to be lower q-o-q. Comparables should ease materially after Q1/25-26, and we expect the company to deliver stronger EBITDA in the year, which should support modest deleveraging.
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Sappi, Banijay, Altice France (SFR), Telecom Italia, Lottomatica (formerly Gamenet), Oriflame, Flora Food Group, Gestamp, Air France-KLM, Nomad Foods (Iglo), Stena AB, Klockner Pentaplast, Bombardier, Encore Capital (formerly Cabot), Novelis, PeopleCert
The Europe HY Trade Book for May 2025 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. We also discuss the US tariff situation and key related impacts.
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